49ers earned a 38-17 win over the Raiders from the first snap

The verdict

The first big play of the game was a short throw. On fourth-and-2 from the Las Vegas 45 in the first quarter, B.Purdy hit G.Kittle short left for 4 yards, and the 49ers added 9 percentage points of win probability on that snap alone. The system turned a small gain into a drive and set the tone.

Played like that, they win more than 99% of the time. The snaps said 49ers by 15.9 points, and the Raiders were beaten on the snaps as well as on the scoreboard. This one was earned.

What the score hid

The 38-17 final reads like a rout, and the underlying numbers are more modest. San Francisco averaged 0.19 EPA per snap. EPA, expected points added, measures how much each play moves the team's scoring chances compared with what a typical team would expect from that spot. Las Vegas averaged -0.14.

Success rate was 50% for the 49ers and 40% for the Raiders. That is a clear edge, not a landslide. The offense won by staying ahead of the chains, and the short throws to Kittle supplied the early-down gains.

Luck points leaned the same direction. The 49ers collected 1.5 and the Raiders lost 2.7, so the final margin was helped a little by bounces. The deserved margin still sits well above a coin flip.

The calls

Kyle Shanahan went on fourth down three times and the model agreed each time. The Kittle conversion was a clear go. The fourth-and-1 at the Las Vegas 23 in the second quarter was a lean toward going, and it converted.

The third try came in the third quarter at 5:34, fourth-and-1 from the San Francisco 40, with a win probability of 89%. The model called it a clear go, and the run was stopped. The decision was right, and the cost was zero expected points lost. Shanahan gets credit for it.

The flags were light. Intentional grounding on San Francisco cost 10 yards and 3 percentage points of win probability. A false start cost another 1. Las Vegas gave back 5 yards on a defensive offside and 4 on a pass interference call, worth 2 points each.

The trend

The 49ers are 7-1 with 7.1 deserved wins. Their luck in wins is -0.1, which ranks 18th of 32 luckiest first, so the record matches the play. They are 3-0 in one-score games and have no games robbed and none won while lucky.

The season luck sheet is negative at -8.3 total luck points. Fumble recovery accounts for -1.4 and opponent kicking for -3.1. The flag ledger runs the same way: 50 penalties for 445 yards and a net of -29% in win probability.

On fourth down the Chicken Index is 46%, 16th of 32 most timid first. The model recommended going 11 times and Shanahan went 6 times. The desk counts 23 graded fourth downs, 4.2 expected points lost and 2 clear misses. This week was not one of them.

The net EPA per snap of 0.246 ranks second of 32. What is due to change is the luck, since the negative bounces tend to even out.

Next up is the Dallas Cowboys on the road in Week 10, Sunday, Nov 15, at 4:25 PM ET on Fox.