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Cowboys DeskThe Verdict

Cowboys earned the win in Indianapolis, and the snaps say it should not have been close

Dallas beat the Colts 27-23, but the snaps put the deserved margin at 13.8 points, and the fourth-and-1 punt cost them.

The VerdictCowboysEarnedDeserved 99% · Week 9
By Cowboys Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 10, 11:20 AM ET2 min read

The verdict

D.Prescott's 46-yard completion to R.Flournoy with 1:37 left in the fourth quarter decided a 27-23 game in Indianapolis. The snaps say Dallas should not have needed it. Played like that, the Cowboys win 99% of the time.

This one was earned. The deserved margin was 13.8 points against an actual margin of four. Dallas averaged 0.14 EPA per snap, while the Colts averaged minus 0.16. EPA, expected points added, measures how many points a play adds compared with what the situation was worth before the snap.

What the score hid

Success rate barely separated the teams: 46% for Dallas, 44% for Indianapolis. The gap lived in the size of the plays. The Cowboys gained more per snap and the Colts lost ground per snap, even though the scoreboard stayed tight.

The luck ledger explains the tightness. Dallas finished the game at minus 4.8 luck points. Indianapolis finished at plus 3.6. The Cowboys played the better game and got the worse bounces.

The swing play was the Flournoy throw. Prescott, in shotgun, went deep right for 46 yards to the Indianapolis 19, and it added 29% of win probability on one snap.

The calls

The model graded eight fourth-down decisions, and Dallas matched it on six. The best was the fourth-and-2 from the Indianapolis 10 in the second quarter, when the Cowboys went and scored a touchdown.

The worst came with 7:50 left in the fourth, on fourth-and-1 from the Indianapolis 39. Dallas punted. The model called going a clear choice, and the punt cost 1.4 expected points. Brian Schottenheimer had a team at 70% win probability and a one-yard problem, and he gave the ball away. The offense had produced all day, which makes the choice harder to defend. The earlier fourth-and-4 punt at 7:23 of the second quarter cost another 0.7 points, a smaller lean the model also wanted to go on.

The flags leaned Dallas's way late. Of the four heaviest, all in the fourth quarter, three went against Indianapolis: intentional grounding at 1:03 (12 yards, a 14% swing), illegal use of hands at 1:19 (5 yards, 10%) and offensive holding at 6:48 (10 yards, 10%). The one against Dallas was a 40-yard defensive pass interference call at 10:48, worth 12%. The Cowboys earned the win on the snaps, but those late calls helped them close it.

The trend

Dallas is 4-5, and the snaps say 4.3 wins. That is a luck figure of minus 0.3 wins, 21st of 32 teams with the luckiest first. The record is close to the true level, with no big correction due. The one-score record is 2-4, and total luck points stand at minus 5.7.

The Chicken Index sits at 40%, 20th of 32 with the most timid first. Schottenheimer has gone on 6 of the 10 fourth downs where the model recommended going, and the season cost is 3.6 expected points. Sunday's punt is the clear miss on that sheet.

Dallas has been flagged 74 times for 667 yards. Its net EPA per snap is 0.009, 14th in the league.

The Cowboys host the San Francisco 49ers in Week 10 on Sunday, Nov. 15, at 4:25 PM ET on Fox. The fourth-down sheet is the number to track.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.