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Packers DeskThe Verdict

Packers earned the win in New England, and the snaps backed the 45-27 score

Green Bay won 45-27 and played like a team that wins more than 99% of the time, even with a success rate only two points above New England's.

The VerdictEarnedDeserved >99% · Week 9
By Packers Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 10, 11:31 AM ET3 min read

The verdict

Played like that, the Packers win more than 99% of the time. The snaps gave them a deserved win probability of 100% in the engine's rounding and a deserved margin of 17 points. This was an earned win in New England, not a lucky one and not a coin flip.

The 45-27 final fits the underlying play. The Packers did not need the officials or a bounce to get there.

What the score hid

Green Bay averaged 0.26 EPA per snap. EPA, or expected points added, measures how many points each play adds or subtracts from the drive's expected outcome. New England averaged -0.1, so the typical Patriots snap left them worse off than before it started.

The success rate was much closer: 46% for the Packers against 44% for the Patriots. The gap came from the size of the plays, not from steady efficiency.

Luck points ran the way the margin did. The Packers collected 1.9 and the Patriots absorbed -3.6.

The swing play came at 14:32 of the first quarter. D.Maye threw deep left for M.Hollins, and X.McKinney intercepted at the 50 and returned it 36 yards to the New England 14 before M.Pryor pushed him out. The play was worth 15 points of win probability to Green Bay, and it set the terms of the afternoon. A deep ball into coverage on the opening series left the Patriots chasing.

The calls

The three graded fourth downs were clean for Matt LaFleur. At 13:40 of the second quarter, fourth-and-14 from the 23, he took the field goal, and the model agreed. At 11:14, fourth-and-11 from his own 22, he punted, and the model agreed again.

The third was a tossup. At 7:15, fourth-and-6 at midfield, the model leaned toward going for it, and LaFleur punted. The cost was 0.2 expected points, which is small. A false start on Green Bay had moved the sticks back five yards on that same clock, and the punt was a defensible answer to it.

The flags favored the Packers. New England drew a neutral zone infraction at 2:36 of the first quarter, worth 4 points of win probability, and a defensive pass interference call at 9:23 that erased an interception and was worth 2. An encroachment in the third quarter moved nothing in the win probability. The one flag against Green Bay was the second-quarter false start, worth 2.

The trend

The Packers are 6-3 and the snaps say they have earned 5.5 wins, so luck accounts for 0.5 of a win. That ranks eighth of 32 among the luckiest teams. They are 3-1 in one-score games, they have been robbed in no games, and they have won one game while lucky. Total luck stands at 9.1 points, with 2.5 of it from fumble recoveries.

The real strength is underneath the luck. Green Bay's net EPA per snap is 0.096, eighth in the league.

LaFleur's fourth-down record is the part of the sheet that is not helping. Of 42 graded fourth downs, the model recommended going on 15, and the Packers went on 10. Their Chicken Index is 33%, 23rd of 32 on the most-timid-first list. Those decisions have cost 4.6 expected points, including 2 clear misses.

The flags have also run against them over the season: 74 penalties for 605 yards, a net of -19 points of win probability. This week's calls tilted the other way, which is the kind of variance that tends to even out.

The next game is Week 10 against the Minnesota Vikings at Lambeau on Sunday, Nov 15, at 1:00 PM ET on Fox.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.