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Dolphins DeskThe Verdict

Dolphins lost to the Lions 19-9 and the snaps agree with the score

Miami managed a 29% success rate and gave away 3 penalty-driven swings, so a 9% deserved win probability fits a 19-9 loss to Detroit.

The VerdictDolphinsDeservedDeserved 9% · Week 9
By Dolphins Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 10, 11:21 AM ET3 min read

The verdict

Played like that, the Dolphins win 9% of the time. The snaps gave them a 9% chance against the Lions, and the deserved margin was Detroit by 7.5 points. The real margin was 10. This one was earned by Detroit, not stolen.

Miami's offense never found a second read. It finished at minus-0.21 EPA per snap. EPA is expected points added: how many points each play moved the scoreboard compared with an average play from that spot. Detroit's offense sat at 0.01, basically flat, and still won comfortably.

What the score hid

The gap was in the efficiency column. Miami's success rate was 29%. Detroit's was 44%. When the first look is covered and the second one is not there either, drives die on early downs, and 29% is what that looks like.

Luck did not rescue anyone. The Dolphins came out at minus-1 luck points and the Lions at plus-1.6, a small tilt that explains about a point of the margin and no more. The 2.5-point difference between the actual margin and the deserved one is that noise.

The swing play came early. In the first quarter, with 5:14 left, Goff threw short right for A.St. Brown and C.Johnson intercepted at the Miami 40, returning it 21 yards to the Detroit 39. J.Uche was credited on the play. The brief lists it as the biggest swing of the game, worth 18 points of win probability. At 5:03 of that same quarter, Miami was flagged for offensive holding, 10 yards, a 5-point swing.

The calls

Jeff Hafley's fourth-down decisions graded clean. All six calls matched the model's best option, with zero expected points lost. He punted on fourth-and-5 from his own 25 in the first quarter, kicked from the 16 on fourth-and-7, and went for it on fourth-and-3 in the fourth quarter at 14:55, which converted. A field goal on fourth-and-16 from the 16 at 9:30 was the clear call, and it was good. Hafley gets full marks here, and it did not matter.

The flags did matter. Miami was called for offensive holding three times in the game: 5 yards in the second quarter at 12:27 and 10 yards each in the first quarter at 5:03 and the third quarter at 5:15. The second-quarter and third-quarter holds were each worth 6 points of win probability. A false start at 1:11 of the second quarter cost another 5. A team that cannot get open cannot afford to hold, and Miami did both.

The trend

The Dolphins are 1-7 and the data says they have earned about 1.5 deserved wins. Their luck-wins figure is minus-0.5, which ranks 23rd of 32 with the luckiest first. They are 1-3 in one-score games. That is bad fortune at the margin, but not the main problem. Net EPA per snap is minus-0.176, 30th in the league.

The luck sheet does show some pieces that should turn. Opponent kicking has been worth 3.7 luck points against Miami, and fumble recoveries cost another 1.1, for minus-1.7 total. Those swings usually settle down.

The flag problem has not. The Dolphins have 60 penalties for 423 yards, and those flags have cost a net 7 points of win probability. On fourth down, Hafley's Chicken Index is 25%, 26th of 32 on the most-timid-first list, with 6 of 8 recommended go calls taken and 1.7 expected points lost across 37 graded fourth downs.

Next up is the Indianapolis Colts on the road, Sunday, Nov. 15, at 1:00 PM ET on CBS. Miami's holding count is the number to track.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.