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The LabThe fingerprint of every playbook

Indianapolis ColtsScheme DNA

Most pass rate over expected, most early-down pass rate in the league. Their closest twin is Jaguars (71% alike), then Texans and Patriots. 569 offensive snaps read, 510 of them charted.

League mapColts verdictJSON
Pass rate over expected: +2.5% (84th percentile)Early-down pass rate: 56.1% (84th percentile)Shotgun rate: 62.9% (55th percentile)No-huddle rate: 4.2% (29th percentile)Pre-snap motion: 62.0% (61th percentile)Play action: 27.6% (87th percentile)Screen rate: 7.6% (29th percentile)RPO rate: 4.3% (45th percentile)Deep shots: 10.6% (45th percentile)Middle of the field: 20.5% (39th percentile)Outside runs: 25.0% (71th percentile)Tempo: 38.4s (36th percentile)
Pass rate over expected+2.5%84th percentile · league −2.3%
Early-down pass rate56.1%84th percentile · league 50.6%
Play action27.6%87th percentile · league 23.1%
No-huddle rate4.2%29th percentile · league 6.5%

Bottom lineTheir loudest habits: pass rate over expected (+2.5%, 84th percentile), early-down pass rate (56.1%, 84th percentile), play action (27.6%, 87th percentile).

How to read this chart
The flower:
each petal is one play-calling habit, labeled around the edge. Petal length is the team's rank among the 32 (long = does it more than most; for tempo, long = fast). The dashed ring is the league middle.
The bars:
the same habits as a list: the bar is the rank (the tick in the middle is the league middle), then the real value and the percentile (90 = more than 90% of teams). Jargon: pass rate over expected = how much more or less they throw than the situation predicts; RPO = run-pass option; men in the box = defenders near the line against the run.
Offense

The playbook

Pass rate over expected: +2.5% (84th percentile)Early-down pass rate: 56.1% (84th percentile)Shotgun rate: 62.9% (55th percentile)No-huddle rate: 4.2% (29th percentile)Pre-snap motion: 62.0% (61th percentile)Play action: 27.6% (87th percentile)Screen rate: 7.6% (29th percentile)RPO rate: 4.3% (45th percentile)Deep shots: 10.6% (45th percentile)Middle of the field: 20.5% (39th percentile)Outside runs: 25.0% (71th percentile)Tempo: 38.4s (36th percentile)PROEEarly passShotgunNo-huddleMotionPlay actionScreensRPODeep shotsMiddleEdge runsTempo
Pass rate over expected+2.5%84
Early-down pass rate56.1%84
Shotgun rate62.9%55
No-huddle rate4.2%29
Pre-snap motion62.0%61
Play action27.6%87
Screen rate7.6%29
RPO rate4.3%45
Deep shots10.6%45
Middle of the field20.5%39
Outside runs25.0%71
Tempo38.4s36
Defense

The defense

Blitz rate: 21.2% (3th percentile)Five-plus rushers: 21.2% (3th percentile)Men in the box: 6.78 (81th percentile)Stacked boxes: 10.1% (68th percentile)Pass rate faced: −4.3% (23th percentile)Deep shots allowed: 15.6% (90th percentile)Blitz5+ rushBox8+ boxPass facedDeep allowed
Blitz rate21.2%3
Five-plus rushers21.2%3
Men in the box6.7881
Stacked boxes10.1%68
Pass rate faced−4.3%23
Deep shots allowed15.6%90

Defensive twins: Cowboys (81%), Texans (76%), Titans (71%).

Twins

Offenses most like theirs

Solid shape: Colts · outline: the twin

Bottom lineColts and Jaguars, 71% alike. Both huddle more than most of the league; Colts and Jaguars differ most in tempo (38.4s vs 39.5s) and pass rate over expected (+2.5% vs −2.8%).

How to read this chart
Each card is one twin:
an offense that calls games like Colts. The colored shape is Colts's fingerprint, the white outline the twin's. Where the two match, the habits match.
The %
is how alike the two are across all offensive habits: 100% would be identical, 0% the most different pair in the league.
Pass rate over expected: +2.5% (84th percentile)Early-down pass rate: 56.1% (84th percentile)Shotgun rate: 62.9% (55th percentile)No-huddle rate: 4.2% (29th percentile)Pre-snap motion: 62.0% (61th percentile)Play action: 27.6% (87th percentile)Screen rate: 7.6% (29th percentile)RPO rate: 4.3% (45th percentile)Deep shots: 10.6% (45th percentile)Middle of the field: 20.5% (39th percentile)Outside runs: 25.0% (71th percentile)Tempo: 38.4s (36th percentile)
#1 twinJaguars71%Both huddle more than most of the league; Colts and Jaguars differ most in tempo (38.4s vs 39.5s) and pass rate over expected (+2.5% vs −2.8%).
Pass rate over expected: +2.5% (84th percentile)Early-down pass rate: 56.1% (84th percentile)Shotgun rate: 62.9% (55th percentile)No-huddle rate: 4.2% (29th percentile)Pre-snap motion: 62.0% (61th percentile)Play action: 27.6% (87th percentile)Screen rate: 7.6% (29th percentile)RPO rate: 4.3% (45th percentile)Deep shots: 10.6% (45th percentile)Middle of the field: 20.5% (39th percentile)Outside runs: 25.0% (71th percentile)Tempo: 38.4s (36th percentile)
#2 twinTexans68%Both pass more on early downs and throw fewer screens than most of the league; Colts and Texans differ most in deep shots (10.6% vs 15.1%) and throws over the middle (20.5% vs 26.5%).
Pass rate over expected: +2.5% (84th percentile)Early-down pass rate: 56.1% (84th percentile)Shotgun rate: 62.9% (55th percentile)No-huddle rate: 4.2% (29th percentile)Pre-snap motion: 62.0% (61th percentile)Play action: 27.6% (87th percentile)Screen rate: 7.6% (29th percentile)RPO rate: 4.3% (45th percentile)Deep shots: 10.6% (45th percentile)Middle of the field: 20.5% (39th percentile)Outside runs: 25.0% (71th percentile)Tempo: 38.4s (36th percentile)
#3 twinPatriots64%Both huddle more than most of the league; Colts and Patriots differ most in deep shots (10.6% vs 15.0%) and play action (27.6% vs 20.8%).
Run game

Where they run

Arrow size = share of carries · color = EPA per carry

Bottom lineTheir favorite lane: middle, 23% of runs, +0.01 EPA per carry.

How to read this chart
Seen from behind the offense:
the line at the bottom is the line of scrimmage, with seven running lanes from the left end to the right end.
Arrow size
and the % above it = share of the team's runs that go there.
Arrow color
= how well those runs work, in EPA per carry (expected points added: above zero helps the offense). Green works, grey is average, red hurts.
10%L end+0.15 EPA13%L tackle+0.14 EPA12%L guard+0.17 EPA23%Middle+0.01 EPA8%R guard−0.34 EPA19%R tackle−0.02 EPA15%R end+0.07 EPA
Pass game

Where they throw

Share of targets · EPA per throw

Bottom lineMost targeted zone: short left, 35% of throws, -0.15 EPA per throw.

How to read this chart
The field from the quarterback's eyes:
left, middle and right; the bottom row is short throws, the top row deep throws.
Each box
shows the share of throws that go there (more solid = more throws) and its color the EPA per throw: green helps the offense, grey is average, red hurts.
6%−0.28 EPA · 1935%−0.15 EPA · 1063%−0.23 EPA · 1017%+0.10 EPA · 526%−0.17 EPA · 1832%−0.01 EPA · 97← leftright →15 air yards
Formation Tell

What the formation gives away

How to read this chart
Two dots on one line from 0% to 100%:
how often they throw when the quarterback is under center, and how often from shotgun, on neutral downs.
The gap between them
is what a defense learns from the formation alone: a wide gap means the alignment tips run or pass.
Under center34%pass rate, neutral downs
Shotgun78%pass rate, neutral downs

A 44-point gap: middle of the pack offenses in the league (12 of 32). See all 32 →