Pigskin NightlyWeek 10
Latest
InjuryAlec Anderson: Out → Questionable27 min agoInjuryDion Dawkins: Out → Questionable27 min agoNew York JetsHow Will the Jets Approach the NFL's Trade Deadline?New York JetsMore Amazing Facts from David Bailey's Performance in Kansas CityPro Football RumorsVikings Expected To Explore QB TradeESPNFantasy buzz: James Cook III helps Bills overcome tough Vikings defenseDetroit LionsTWENTYMAN: 5 stats that stand out following Lions' Week 9 victoryESPNSeven things Solak thinks for NFL Week 10: Jaguars trades, All-Pro picks, morePittsburgh SteelersAsked and Answered: Nov. 10ESPNCommanders running low on time to 'put it all together'New York GiantsGiants Now: Michael Strahan offers high praise of Arvell ReesePhiladelphia EaglesAAA Official Review: What did the Eagles, Joe Milton learn from the QB's first start?Buffalo Bills'There's no panic' | The Bills stay strong through early struggles and injuries in MNF win over the Minnesota VikingsESPNVikings left at QB crossroads after Carson Wentz's poor MNF showing vs. BillsBroncos DeskBroncos are 7-2, but the snaps say 4.1 wins and the 11th seed in the conference7 h agoInjuryByron Murphy Jr.: Active → Cleared7 h agoMinnesota VikingsVikings Defense Limits Bills Below AveragesMinnesota VikingsO'Connell: Vikings Have to 'Improve Offensively at Rapid Pace'InjuryBlake Cashman: Active → Cleared8 h agoVikings DeskVikings go 0-for-8 on third down and never get a receiver open in a 23-6 loss to Bills8 h agoInjuryWill Reichard: Active → Cleared8 h agoBills DeskJosh Allen's picks and sacks didn't matter: Bills force three turnovers in Minneapolis8 h ago
WSH ThuNYG NE SunDET BUF SunNYJ CAR SunNO HOU SunCLE JAX SunTEN KC SunATL MIA SunIND MIN SunGB LAR SunARI SEA SunLV SF SunDAL PIT SunCIN LAC MonBAL
The LabThe fingerprint of every playbook

Los Angeles RamsScheme DNA

Most early-down pass rate, least rpo rate in the league. Their closest twin is Colts (63% alike), then Raiders and 49ers. 587 offensive snaps read, 515 of them charted.

Pass rate over expected: +4.8% (94th percentile)Early-down pass rate: 60.7% (97th percentile)Shotgun rate: 51.4% (13th percentile)No-huddle rate: 10.4% (90th percentile)Pre-snap motion: 69.5% (90th percentile)Play action: 26.5% (77th percentile)Screen rate: 8.0% (32th percentile)RPO rate: 0.6% (0th percentile)Deep shots: 9.1% (16th percentile)Middle of the field: 20.6% (42th percentile)Outside runs: 18.1% (19th percentile)Tempo: 37.3s (84th percentile)
Early-down pass rate60.7%97th percentile · league 50.6%
RPO rate0.6%0th percentile · league 5.1%
Pass rate over expected+4.8%94th percentile · league −2.3%
Pre-snap motion69.5%90th percentile · league 59.0%

Bottom lineTheir loudest habits: early-down pass rate (60.7%, 97th percentile), rpo rate (0.6%, 0th percentile), pass rate over expected (+4.8%, 94th percentile).

How to read this chart
The flower:
each petal is one play-calling habit, labeled around the edge. Petal length is the team's rank among the 32 (long = does it more than most; for tempo, long = fast). The dashed ring is the league middle.
The bars:
the same habits as a list: the bar is the rank (the tick in the middle is the league middle), then the real value and the percentile (90 = more than 90% of teams). Jargon: pass rate over expected = how much more or less they throw than the situation predicts; RPO = run-pass option; men in the box = defenders near the line against the run.
Offense

The playbook

Pass rate over expected: +4.8% (94th percentile)Early-down pass rate: 60.7% (97th percentile)Shotgun rate: 51.4% (13th percentile)No-huddle rate: 10.4% (90th percentile)Pre-snap motion: 69.5% (90th percentile)Play action: 26.5% (77th percentile)Screen rate: 8.0% (32th percentile)RPO rate: 0.6% (0th percentile)Deep shots: 9.1% (16th percentile)Middle of the field: 20.6% (42th percentile)Outside runs: 18.1% (19th percentile)Tempo: 37.3s (84th percentile)PROEEarly passShotgunNo-huddleMotionPlay actionScreensRPODeep shotsMiddleEdge runsTempo
Pass rate over expected+4.8%94
Early-down pass rate60.7%97
Shotgun rate51.4%13
No-huddle rate10.4%90
Pre-snap motion69.5%90
Play action26.5%77
Screen rate8.0%32
RPO rate0.6%0
Deep shots9.1%16
Middle of the field20.6%42
Outside runs18.1%19
Tempo37.3s84
Defense

The defense

Blitz rate: 28.9% (48th percentile)Five-plus rushers: 28.9% (48th percentile)Men in the box: 6.68 (68th percentile)Stacked boxes: 11.8% (81th percentile)Pass rate faced: −2.4% (48th percentile)Deep shots allowed: 9.0% (10th percentile)Blitz5+ rushBox8+ boxPass facedDeep allowed
Blitz rate28.9%48
Five-plus rushers28.9%48
Men in the box6.6868
Stacked boxes11.8%81
Pass rate faced−2.4%48
Deep shots allowed9.0%10

Defensive twins: Chargers (91%), Broncos (88%), Dolphins (88%).

Twins

Offenses most like theirs

Solid shape: Rams · outline: the twin

Bottom lineRams and Colts, 63% alike. Both throw more than the situation predicts and pass more on early downs than most of the league; Rams and Colts differ most in no-huddle rate (10.4% vs 4.2%) and shotgun rate (51.4% vs 62.9%).

How to read this chart
Each card is one twin:
an offense that calls games like Rams. The colored shape is Rams's fingerprint, the white outline the twin's. Where the two match, the habits match.
The %
is how alike the two are across all offensive habits: 100% would be identical, 0% the most different pair in the league.
Pass rate over expected: +4.8% (94th percentile)Early-down pass rate: 60.7% (97th percentile)Shotgun rate: 51.4% (13th percentile)No-huddle rate: 10.4% (90th percentile)Pre-snap motion: 69.5% (90th percentile)Play action: 26.5% (77th percentile)Screen rate: 8.0% (32th percentile)RPO rate: 0.6% (0th percentile)Deep shots: 9.1% (16th percentile)Middle of the field: 20.6% (42th percentile)Outside runs: 18.1% (19th percentile)Tempo: 37.3s (84th percentile)
#1 twinColts63%Both throw more than the situation predicts and pass more on early downs than most of the league; Rams and Colts differ most in no-huddle rate (10.4% vs 4.2%) and shotgun rate (51.4% vs 62.9%).
Pass rate over expected: +4.8% (94th percentile)Early-down pass rate: 60.7% (97th percentile)Shotgun rate: 51.4% (13th percentile)No-huddle rate: 10.4% (90th percentile)Pre-snap motion: 69.5% (90th percentile)Play action: 26.5% (77th percentile)Screen rate: 8.0% (32th percentile)RPO rate: 0.6% (0th percentile)Deep shots: 9.1% (16th percentile)Middle of the field: 20.6% (42th percentile)Outside runs: 18.1% (19th percentile)Tempo: 37.3s (84th percentile)
#2 twinRaiders61%Both run inside more and run fewer RPOs than most of the league; Rams and Raiders differ most in early-down pass rate (60.7% vs 50.3%) and throws over the middle (20.6% vs 28.8%).
Pass rate over expected: +4.8% (94th percentile)Early-down pass rate: 60.7% (97th percentile)Shotgun rate: 51.4% (13th percentile)No-huddle rate: 10.4% (90th percentile)Pre-snap motion: 69.5% (90th percentile)Play action: 26.5% (77th percentile)Screen rate: 8.0% (32th percentile)RPO rate: 0.6% (0th percentile)Deep shots: 9.1% (16th percentile)Middle of the field: 20.6% (42th percentile)Outside runs: 18.1% (19th percentile)Tempo: 37.3s (84th percentile)
#3 twin49ers61%Both run fewer RPOs and move more before the snap than most of the league; Rams and 49ers differ most in no-huddle rate (10.4% vs 3.0%) and early-down pass rate (60.7% vs 51.2%).
Run game

Where they run

Arrow size = share of carries · color = EPA per carry

Bottom lineTheir favorite lane: middle, 44% of runs, -0.01 EPA per carry.

How to read this chart
Seen from behind the offense:
the line at the bottom is the line of scrimmage, with seven running lanes from the left end to the right end.
Arrow size
and the % above it = share of the team's runs that go there.
Arrow color
= how well those runs work, in EPA per carry (expected points added: above zero helps the offense). Green works, grey is average, red hurts.
9%L end+0.19 EPA6%L tackle+0.13 EPA13%L guard+0.09 EPA44%Middle−0.01 EPA12%R guard−0.17 EPA7%R tackle+0.24 EPA9%R end−0.04 EPA
Pass game

Where they throw

Share of targets · EPA per throw

Bottom lineMost targeted zone: short right, 35% of throws, +0.09 EPA per throw.

How to read this chart
The field from the quarterback's eyes:
left, middle and right; the bottom row is short throws, the top row deep throws.
Each box
shows the share of throws that go there (more solid = more throws) and its color the EPA per throw: green helps the offense, grey is average, red hurts.
6%+0.06 EPA · 2129%+0.11 EPA · 982%−0.38 EPA · 818%+0.33 EPA · 629%−0.04 EPA · 3135%+0.09 EPA · 120← leftright →15 air yards
Formation Tell

What the formation gives away

How to read this chart
Two dots on one line from 0% to 100%:
how often they throw when the quarterback is under center, and how often from shotgun, on neutral downs.
The gap between them
is what a defense learns from the formation alone: a wide gap means the alignment tips run or pass.
Under center44%pass rate, neutral downs
Shotgun87%pass rate, neutral downs

A 43-point gap: middle of the pack offenses in the league (15 of 32). See all 32 →