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The LabThe fingerprint of every playbook

Chicago BearsScheme DNA

Most play action, most middle of the field in the league. Their closest twin is Vikings (68% alike), then Seahawks and Lions. 624 offensive snaps read, 566 of them charted.

Pass rate over expected: −1.3% (65th percentile)Early-down pass rate: 50.6% (52th percentile)Shotgun rate: 54.2% (19th percentile)No-huddle rate: 5.1% (48th percentile)Pre-snap motion: 53.7% (29th percentile)Play action: 34.8% (100th percentile)Screen rate: 11.3% (81th percentile)RPO rate: 4.4% (48th percentile)Deep shots: 10.0% (39th percentile)Middle of the field: 28.0% (97th percentile)Outside runs: 30.2% (87th percentile)Tempo: 37.3s (81th percentile)
Play action34.8%100th percentile · league 23.1%
Middle of the field28.0%97th percentile · league 21.0%
Outside runs30.2%87th percentile · league 23.4%
Shotgun rate54.2%19th percentile · league 61.5%

Bottom lineTheir loudest habits: play action (34.8%, 100th percentile), middle of the field (28.0%, 97th percentile), outside runs (30.2%, 87th percentile).

How to read this chart
The flower:
each petal is one play-calling habit, labeled around the edge. Petal length is the team's rank among the 32 (long = does it more than most; for tempo, long = fast). The dashed ring is the league middle.
The bars:
the same habits as a list: the bar is the rank (the tick in the middle is the league middle), then the real value and the percentile (90 = more than 90% of teams). Jargon: pass rate over expected = how much more or less they throw than the situation predicts; RPO = run-pass option; men in the box = defenders near the line against the run.
Offense

The playbook

Pass rate over expected: −1.3% (65th percentile)Early-down pass rate: 50.6% (52th percentile)Shotgun rate: 54.2% (19th percentile)No-huddle rate: 5.1% (48th percentile)Pre-snap motion: 53.7% (29th percentile)Play action: 34.8% (100th percentile)Screen rate: 11.3% (81th percentile)RPO rate: 4.4% (48th percentile)Deep shots: 10.0% (39th percentile)Middle of the field: 28.0% (97th percentile)Outside runs: 30.2% (87th percentile)Tempo: 37.3s (81th percentile)PROEEarly passShotgunNo-huddleMotionPlay actionScreensRPODeep shotsMiddleEdge runsTempo
Pass rate over expected−1.3%65
Early-down pass rate50.6%52
Shotgun rate54.2%19
No-huddle rate5.1%48
Pre-snap motion53.7%29
Play action34.8%100
Screen rate11.3%81
RPO rate4.4%48
Deep shots10.0%39
Middle of the field28.0%97
Outside runs30.2%87
Tempo37.3s81
Defense

The defense

Blitz rate: 39.3% (87th percentile)Five-plus rushers: 39.7% (87th percentile)Men in the box: 6.79 (84th percentile)Stacked boxes: 11.6% (77th percentile)Pass rate faced: −2.1% (58th percentile)Deep shots allowed: 12.4% (77th percentile)Blitz5+ rushBox8+ boxPass facedDeep allowed
Blitz rate39.3%87
Five-plus rushers39.7%87
Men in the box6.7984
Stacked boxes11.6%77
Pass rate faced−2.1%58
Deep shots allowed12.4%77

Defensive twins: Patriots (87%), Giants (86%), Bills (83%).

Twins

Offenses most like theirs

Solid shape: Bears · outline: the twin

Bottom lineBears and Vikings, 68% alike. Both use more play action and throw more screens than most of the league; Bears and Vikings differ most in throws over the middle (28.0% vs 21.5%) and tempo (37.3s vs 38.6s).

How to read this chart
Each card is one twin:
an offense that calls games like Bears. The colored shape is Bears's fingerprint, the white outline the twin's. Where the two match, the habits match.
The %
is how alike the two are across all offensive habits: 100% would be identical, 0% the most different pair in the league.
Pass rate over expected: −1.3% (65th percentile)Early-down pass rate: 50.6% (52th percentile)Shotgun rate: 54.2% (19th percentile)No-huddle rate: 5.1% (48th percentile)Pre-snap motion: 53.7% (29th percentile)Play action: 34.8% (100th percentile)Screen rate: 11.3% (81th percentile)RPO rate: 4.4% (48th percentile)Deep shots: 10.0% (39th percentile)Middle of the field: 28.0% (97th percentile)Outside runs: 30.2% (87th percentile)Tempo: 37.3s (81th percentile)
#1 twinVikings68%Both use more play action and throw more screens than most of the league; Bears and Vikings differ most in throws over the middle (28.0% vs 21.5%) and tempo (37.3s vs 38.6s).
Pass rate over expected: −1.3% (65th percentile)Early-down pass rate: 50.6% (52th percentile)Shotgun rate: 54.2% (19th percentile)No-huddle rate: 5.1% (48th percentile)Pre-snap motion: 53.7% (29th percentile)Play action: 34.8% (100th percentile)Screen rate: 11.3% (81th percentile)RPO rate: 4.4% (48th percentile)Deep shots: 10.0% (39th percentile)Middle of the field: 28.0% (97th percentile)Outside runs: 30.2% (87th percentile)Tempo: 37.3s (81th percentile)
#2 twinSeahawks67%Both run outside more and line up under center more than most of the league; Bears and Seahawks differ most in play action (34.8% vs 26.6%) and pass rate over expected (−1.3% vs −8.0%).
Pass rate over expected: −1.3% (65th percentile)Early-down pass rate: 50.6% (52th percentile)Shotgun rate: 54.2% (19th percentile)No-huddle rate: 5.1% (48th percentile)Pre-snap motion: 53.7% (29th percentile)Play action: 34.8% (100th percentile)Screen rate: 11.3% (81th percentile)RPO rate: 4.4% (48th percentile)Deep shots: 10.0% (39th percentile)Middle of the field: 28.0% (97th percentile)Outside runs: 30.2% (87th percentile)Tempo: 37.3s (81th percentile)
#3 twinLions66%Both use more play action and throw more over the middle than most of the league; Bears and Lions differ most in outside runs (30.2% vs 17.7%) and screen rate (11.3% vs 8.1%).
Run game

Where they run

Arrow size = share of carries · color = EPA per carry

Bottom lineTheir favorite lane: right guard, 19% of runs, +0.13 EPA per carry.

How to read this chart
Seen from behind the offense:
the line at the bottom is the line of scrimmage, with seven running lanes from the left end to the right end.
Arrow size
and the % above it = share of the team's runs that go there.
Arrow color
= how well those runs work, in EPA per carry (expected points added: above zero helps the offense). Green works, grey is average, red hurts.
15%L end+0.13 EPA9%L tackle+0.24 EPA14%L guard−0.27 EPA10%Middle−0.28 EPA19%R guard+0.13 EPA18%R tackle−0.17 EPA15%R end+0.25 EPA
Pass game

Where they throw

Share of targets · EPA per throw

Bottom lineMost targeted zone: short right, 35% of throws, +0.14 EPA per throw.

How to read this chart
The field from the quarterback's eyes:
left, middle and right; the bottom row is short throws, the top row deep throws.
Each box
shows the share of throws that go there (more solid = more throws) and its color the EPA per throw: green helps the offense, grey is average, red hurts.
5%+0.76 EPA · 1523%−0.02 EPA · 735%+0.11 EPA · 1723%+0.43 EPA · 709%−0.30 EPA · 2835%+0.14 EPA · 108← leftright →15 air yards
Formation Tell

What the formation gives away

How to read this chart
Two dots on one line from 0% to 100%:
how often they throw when the quarterback is under center, and how often from shotgun, on neutral downs.
The gap between them
is what a defense learns from the formation alone: a wide gap means the alignment tips run or pass.
Under center35%pass rate, neutral downs
Shotgun76%pass rate, neutral downs

A 41-point gap: middle of the pack offenses in the league (22 of 32). See all 32 →