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Week 10
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Green Bay PackersMike's Mid-Week Chat | Nov. 11, 2026Texans DeskTexans offense posts its best EPA per play of the year in Week 912 min agoRams DeskRams pass on 58% of early downs again after a 41% week, and Puka Nacua feeds on it13 min agoInjuryGarrett Wilson: Questionable → Out14 min agoPanthers DeskCarolina's offense rebounds in Week 9 after two negative-EPA games22 min agoFalcons DeskFalcons' eighth-ranked run game has slipped as the offense sits 25th23 min agoInjuryDenzel Boston: Active → Questionable29 min agoEagles DeskEagles run defense ranks 31st while the offense stalls at a 24% success rate32 min agoCommanders DeskCommanders pass on 66% of early downs in Week 9 and the offense slides to -0.177 EPA a play33 min agoCarolina PanthersPanthers open practice windows for three, among other movesBaltimore RavensMailbag: Will Jacoby Brissett Turn the Ravens' Season Around?Buccaneers DeskBuccaneers defense leads the league in EPA allowed while the passing game ranks 30th42 min agoBears DeskBears pass on early downs 64% in Week 9 and the offense stalls43 min agoSan Francisco 49ersWays to Watch and Listen: 49ers vs. Cowboys | Week 10Pro Football RumorsColts Designate DE Arden Key For ReturnNew York GiantsArvell Reese named NFC Defensive Player of the WeekBrowns DeskBrowns rank 30th against the run, and the offense fell to 33% success in Week 952 min agoHouston TexansHouston Texans QB C.J. Stroud Named AFC Offensive Player Of The WeekLos Angeles RamsLos Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals: How to watch, listen to and live stream Week 10New York GiantsGame Preview: Nothing worthwhile comes easy for first-place GiantsGreen Bay PackersPackers QB Jordan Love named NFC Offensive Player of the WeekBuffalo BillsBills roster moves Nov. 11
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The LabEvery game, drawn from every snap

Week 1 · 2026Packers 22 · 39 Vikings

149 plays, one strand. Vikings won after 1 lead change; Packers peaked at 91% to win, Vikings at 100%. The white spine is the win probability, every rung a snap: up for MIN, down for GB, as long as the yards it gained.

Game pageDownload poster (SVG)All games

Bottom line1 lead change; Packers peaked at 91% to win, Vikings at 100%.

How to read this chart
Read it left to right:
kickoff on the left, final whistle on the right.
The white line
is the chance that Vikings win, play by play. High = MIN in control, low = GB in control, the middle is a coin flip. Each crossing of the middle is a change in who was more likely to win.
Each little bar is one play:
up for MIN on offense, down for GB; the longer the bar, the more yards. The key under the picture explains the marks (touchdown, turnover, field goal, punt).
Vikings ↑Packers ↓
Q2Q3Q4Q1INTTDTDTDTDTDFUMTDINTTDMIN ↑ HOMEGB ↓ AWAY
win probabilityhome snapaway snaptouchdownturnoverfield goalpuntincomplete
Head to head

The strands compared

How to read this chart
Each row compares the two teams
on one stat: GB on the left, MIN on the right. The longer bar is the bigger number.
Explosive plays
are long gains (big runs and passes). Peak win prob. is the highest chance to win each team reached at any moment.
GBMIN
67Plays59
419Yards244
9Explosive plays2
2Offensive TDs5
2Turnovers1
91%Peak win prob.100%
Drive by drive

Every possession

How to read this chart
Each tile is one possession,
in game order, colored by the team that had the ball.
Inside:
the team, how it ended (TD = touchdown, FG = field goal, INT = interception, FUM = fumble, otherwise punt or downs) and the yards gained. Brighter tiles are drives that scored.
MININT-1yGBFG17yMINPunt25yGBTD81yMINFG35yGBFG20yMINPunt12yGBPunt37yMINPunt1yGBPunt0yMINTD65yGBTD74yGBPunt24yMINPunt4yGBFG79yMINTD28yGB–49yMINTD57yGBFUM-22yMINTD1yGBINT7yMINTD14yGB–53yMIN–3y
Key moments

The plays that moved it most

Largest swings in expected points

Bottom lineThe biggest swing: play 1, 4.1 expected points against Vikings.

How to read this chart
The strip is the game clock;
each numbered dot is one of the plays below, placed when it happened and colored by the team on offense.
EP (expected points)
is how many points the play added to (+) or took away from (−) the offense's expected score. +3.5 EP is worth more than a field goal; big minus numbers are usually turnovers.
12345678
  1. 1
    Q1 14:23 · MIN · Interception

    1-K.Murray pass deep right intended for 14-J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 25-K.Nixon [44-Z.Franklin] at GB 36. 25-K.Nixon to GB 47 for 11 yards (

    −4.1 EP
  2. 2
    Q1 7:54 · GB · Touchdown

    10-J.Love pass deep middle to 9-C.Watson for 81 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN-2-I.Rodgers was injured during the play.

    +7.0 EP
  3. 3
    Q2 2:02 · MIN · Touchdown

    11-C.Wentz pass deep left to 18-J.Jefferson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on GB-90-L.Van Ness, Defensive Offside, declined.

    +3.8 EP
  4. 4
    Q4 15:00 · GB · Completion

    10-J.Love pass deep middle to 0-M.Golden to MIN 26 for 42 yards (44-J.Metellus).

    +3.5 EP
  5. 5
    Q4 13:17 · GB · Run

    10-J.Love right guard to MIN 17 for no gain (97-D.Orange). (Virtual Measurement).

    −4.3 EP
  6. 6
    Q4 5:01 · GB · Fumble lost

    10-J.Love sacked at GB 11 for -12 yards (sack split by 43-A.Van Ginkel and 51-B.Cashman). FUMBLES (43-A.Van Ginkel) [51-B.Cashman], RECOVERE

    −5.8 EP
  7. 7
    Q4 4:21 · GB · Interception

    10-J.Love pass short middle intended for 9-C.Watson INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Pierre (22-H.Smith) at GB 42. 23-J.Pierre pushed ob at GB 14 for 28

    −6.6 EP
  8. 8
    Q4 1:31 · GB · Incomplete

    10-J.Love pass incomplete short middle to 23-S.Moore.

    −3.7 EP
Sliding Doors

The one play that could have changed it

All sliding doors →
How to read this chart
The line is win probability
over the game (top = home team ahead). The dot marks the one play that could have gone either way; the big % is the losing team's chance right after it.
Press Flip it
to see where that chance would have gone if the play had gone the other way. Only that instant is priced: the rest of the game never happened.
22@39Week 1

If the Packers had converted that fourth-and-1

Packers after the play68%what really happened
VikingsPackersthe rest never happened

Q4 13:17 10-J.Love right guard to MIN 17 for no gain (97-D.Orange). (Virtual Measurement).

Week 1

The rest of the week

Every week →
Patriots at Seahawks, Game DNA10@1349ers at Rams, Game DNA27@7Falcons at Steelers, Game DNA13@20Ravens at Colts, Game DNA41@23Bills at Texans, Game DNA36@31Bears at Panthers, Game DNA59@37Browns at Jaguars, Game DNA10@34Saints at Lions, Game DNA30@31Jets at Titans, Game DNA23@10Buccaneers at Bengals, Game DNA27@33Cardinals at Chargers, Game DNA26@14Dolphins at Raiders, Game DNA13@27Commanders at Eagles, Game DNA22@24Cowboys at Giants, Game DNA20@28Broncos at Chiefs, Game DNA10@31