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Browns DeskBy the Numbers

Browns rank 30th against the run, and the offense fell to 33% success in Week 9

Cleveland's defense is 9th against the pass and 30th against the run, and the offense posted its second-worst success rate of the season in Week 9.

By the NumbersGround game-0.11Offense EPA/play · Week 9
By Browns Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 11, 12:01 PM ET2 min read

30th: the run defense is the hole in a top-12 unit

The Browns rank 30th in rush defense and 9th in pass defense. That split leaves the defense 12th overall in EPA allowed per play at -0.02. EPA, expected points added, measures how much each play moves the scoring odds, and a negative number allowed is good for the defense.

Opponents succeed on 42% of their plays against Cleveland. The Houston Texans come to town Sunday, Nov. 15, at 1:00 PM ET on Fox. The Browns are 3-0 at home and 2-4 on the road, so the run defense gets its test in the one place the team has not lost.

33%: the offense lost the down-and-distance fight in Week 9

Cleveland's offense succeeded on 33% of its plays in Week 9. Its season mark is 41%, so Week 9 ran 8 points under. Only Week 5, at 25%, was worse.

The EPA number says the same thing. The offense posted -0.114 per play in Week 9 against a season figure of -0.084, which ranks 26th. The pass offense is 22nd and the rush offense is 29th, so neither side of the ball has been carrying the other. The Browns have lost two straight and sit 5-4, third in the division behind the Bengals and Steelers at 6-2.

75%: Week 8 pass-heavy script was the outlier, and it did not work

In Week 8 the Browns threw on 75% of their early-down plays. Their other weeks run from 53% to 64%. That Week 8 game produced an EPA of -0.275 per play, the second-worst mark of the season behind Week 5 at -0.297.

The best offensive day came when the split was most balanced. In Week 7 the early-down pass rate was 53%, the success rate was 56% and EPA was 0.147. Week 9 came back to 57% early-down passing, and the success rate still fell to 33%.

The run game has not given the play-callers much to lean on. Quinshon Judkins has 116 rushing plays at -0.25 EPA per play and a 30% success rate. Over the last three weeks he sits at -0.21 and 35%, while Dylan Sampson has a 47% success rate on 15 rushing plays.

0.74: Concepcion and Fannin are winning, Boston is not

Over the last three weeks KC Concepcion has 0.74 EPA per target and a 75% success rate on 20 targets. Harold Fannin Jr. has 0.52 and 65% on 23. Both are well above their season lines of 0.29 and 0.34.

Denzel Boston has gone the other way. He leads the group with a 26% target share over this stretch, yet he sits at -0.23 EPA per target and a 33% success rate, against 0.16 and 42% for the season. Deshaun Watson, meanwhile, has a 53% success rate over 86 plays in the last three weeks.

Shedeur Sanders played 100% of the snaps at quarterback in Week 9, up from 6% in Week 8. Safety Grant Delpit also went from 11% in Week 6 to 100% in Week 9. Sunday's snap counts will show whether either change carries over against Houston.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.