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Falcons DeskBy the Numbers

Falcons' eighth-ranked run game has slipped as the offense sits 25th

Bijan Robinson's success rate is down ten points over three weeks, and Michael Penix Jr. is completing fewer passes than expected going into the Chiefs game.

Michael Penix Jr.By the Numbers+0.11Offense EPA/play · Week 9QBMichael Penix Jr.
By Falcons Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 11, 12:30 PM ET2 min read

8th: the run game ranks near the top while the offense sits 25th

Atlanta's rushing offense ranks eighth in the league. The overall offense ranks 25th and the passing offense ranks 28th. Through nine games the Falcons average -0.073 EPA per play with a 43% success rate. EPA, expected points added, measures how much a play changes a team's expected scoring.

Bijan Robinson carries the load with 169 plays for 880 yards. He sits at 0.00 EPA per play with a 44% success rate. Brian Robinson Jr. has 53 plays for 211 yards at 0.05. The ground game is breaking even on EPA, and that is enough to rank well on a team that is losing everywhere else.

34%: Bijan Robinson's success rate over the last three weeks

Over the last three weeks Bijan Robinson has 58 plays for 239 yards, with -0.15 EPA per play and a 34% success rate. His season marks are 0.00 and 44%, so the success rate has dropped ten points. Khalil Herbert has added 7 plays for 28 yards at -0.16.

The run game is the one unit holding up Atlanta's ranking, and it has been below its own season line since Week 7. Watch whether Robinson gets back to the 44% he started the year with.

74%: the Week 6 early-down pass rate cost the offense

In Week 6 the Falcons threw on 74% of early downs. The offense finished at -0.256 EPA per play with a 33% success rate. In Week 3 they threw on 31% of early downs and posted 0.332 EPA per play with a 65% success rate. In Week 4 it was 37%, 0.421 and 59%.

The pattern is not clean. Week 9 came in at a 56% early-down pass rate and still produced 0.113 EPA per play, with a 47% success rate. Still, the two best games of the year came with the lowest early-down pass rates.

-7.4: Michael Penix Jr. is missing his throws by more than before

CPOE, completion percentage over expected, compares a quarterback's completions to what the throws should produce. Michael Penix Jr. sits at -4 for the season. Over the last three weeks he is at -7.4 across 93 plays and 500 yards, with -0.11 EPA per play. His season mark is 0.03.

Drake London is the clearest outlet. He has a 28% target share, 0.47 EPA per play and a 63% success rate on the season. In the last three weeks Kyle Pitts Sr. has fallen to -0.35 EPA per play on 15 plays, and Jahan Dotson is at -0.10 on 10.

The defense has its own questions. It allowed 0.351 EPA per play in Week 9, against a season figure of 0.002. Avieon Terrell's snap share fell from 99% in Week 6 to 18% in Week 9, and Mike Hughes went from 100% to 35%. Kendal Daniels rose from 57% to 89%.

What to watch

The Kansas City Chiefs visit Atlanta in Week 10, Sunday, Nov 15 at 1:00 PM ET on CBS. The Falcons are 1-4 at home and 2-2 on the road, and they sit fourth in the NFC South at 3-6, level with Tampa Bay on record. Robinson's success rate and Penix's CPOE are the two numbers to track from the first series.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.