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Week 10
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The LabEvery game, drawn from every snap

Week 1 · 2026Patriots 10 · 13 Seahawks

141 plays, one strand. Seahawks won after 1 lead change; Patriots peaked at 83% to win, Seahawks at 78%. The white spine is the win probability, every rung a snap: up for SEA, down for NE, as long as the yards it gained.

Game pageDownload poster (SVG)All games

Bottom line1 lead change; Patriots peaked at 83% to win, Seahawks at 78%.

How to read this chart
Read it left to right:
kickoff on the left, final whistle on the right.
The white line
is the chance that Seahawks win, play by play. High = SEA in control, low = NE in control, the middle is a coin flip. Each crossing of the middle is a change in who was more likely to win.
Each little bar is one play:
up for SEA on offense, down for NE; the longer the bar, the more yards. The key under the picture explains the marks (touchdown, turnover, field goal, punt).
Seahawks ↑Patriots ↓
Q2Q3Q4Q1TDINTTDINTINTSEA ↑ HOMENE ↓ AWAY
win probabilityhome snapaway snaptouchdownturnoverfield goalpuntincomplete
Head to head

The strands compared

How to read this chart
Each row compares the two teams
on one stat: NE on the left, SEA on the right. The longer bar is the bigger number.
Explosive plays
are long gains (big runs and passes). Peak win prob. is the highest chance to win each team reached at any moment.
NESEA
67Plays47
277Yards286
2Explosive plays6
1Offensive TDs1
3Turnovers0
83%Peak win prob.78%
Drive by drive

Every possession

How to read this chart
Each tile is one possession,
in game order, colored by the team that had the ball.
Inside:
the team, how it ended (TD = touchdown, FG = field goal, INT = interception, FUM = fumble, otherwise punt or downs) and the yards gained. Brighter tiles are drives that scored.
SEAPunt30yNEPunt22ySEAPunt20yNEPunt20ySEAPunt17yNETD43ySEAPunt34yNEPunt45ySEA–19yNEFG24ySEAPunt14yNEPunt5ySEAFG36yNEINT38ySEATD67yNEINT8ySEAFG49yNEINT72y
Key moments

The plays that moved it most

Largest swings in expected points

Bottom lineThe biggest swing: play 1, 2.0 expected points against Seahawks.

How to read this chart
The strip is the game clock;
each numbered dot is one of the plays below, placed when it happened and colored by the team on offense.
EP (expected points)
is how many points the play added to (+) or took away from (−) the offense's expected score. +3.5 EP is worth more than a field goal; big minus numbers are usually turnovers.
12345678
  1. 1
    Q1 12:27 · SEA · Sack

    14-S.Darnold sacked at SEA 49 for -5 yards (5-D.Jones). SEA-14-S.Darnold was injured during the play.

    −2.0 EP
  2. 2
    Q1 9:14 · NE · Run

    10-D.Maye scrambles right end pushed ob at NE 27 for 1 yard (91-B.Murphy). PENALTY on SEA-58-D.Hall, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforc

    +2.1 EP
  3. 3
    Q1 2:12 · NE · Run

    38-R.Stevenson right guard to NE 40 for -1 yards (20-J.Love).

    −2.1 EP
  4. 4
    Q3 5:36 · SEA · Completion

    2-D.Lock pass deep right to 10-C.Kupp to NE 13 for 24 yards (25-M.Jones) [90-C.Barmore].

    +2.5 EP
  5. 5
    Q4 14:27 · NE · Interception

    10-D.Maye pass deep left intended for 87-R.Doubs INTERCEPTED by 28-N.Pritchett (24-R.Thomas) at SEA 3. 28-N.Pritchett to SEA 33 for 30 yards

    −3.9 EP
  6. 6
    Q4 11:38 · SEA · Touchdown

    2-D.Lock pass short left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    +6.1 EP
  7. 7
    Q4 2:00 · NE · Completion

    10-D.Maye pass short right to 13-M.Hollins to SEA 36 for 11 yards (13-E.Jones).

    +2.4 EP
  8. 8
    Q4 0:26 · NE · Interception

    10-D.Maye pass deep right intended for 13-M.Hollins INTERCEPTED by 29-J.Jobe [0-D.Lawrence] at SEA -3. Touchback.

    −2.7 EP
Sliding Doors

The one play that could have changed it

All sliding doors →
How to read this chart
The line is win probability
over the game (top = home team ahead). The dot marks the one play that could have gone either way; the big % is the losing team's chance right after it.
Press Flip it
to see where that chance would have gone if the play had gone the other way. Only that instant is priced: the rest of the game never happened.
10@13Week 1

If that interception had fallen incomplete

Patriots after the play5%what really happened
SeahawksPatriotsthe rest never happened

Q4 0:26 10-D.Maye pass deep right intended for 13-M.Hollins INTERCEPTED by 29-J.Jobe [0-D.Lawrence] at SEA -3. Touchback.

Week 1

The rest of the week

Every week →
49ers at Rams, Game DNA27@7Falcons at Steelers, Game DNA13@20Ravens at Colts, Game DNA41@23Bills at Texans, Game DNA36@31Bears at Panthers, Game DNA59@37Browns at Jaguars, Game DNA10@34Saints at Lions, Game DNA30@31Jets at Titans, Game DNA23@10Buccaneers at Bengals, Game DNA27@33Cardinals at Chargers, Game DNA26@14Packers at Vikings, Game DNA22@39Dolphins at Raiders, Game DNA13@27Commanders at Eagles, Game DNA22@24Cowboys at Giants, Game DNA20@28Broncos at Chiefs, Game DNA10@31