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Pro Football RumorsMinor NFL Transactions: 11/10/26Week 1 · 2026Broncos 10 · 31 Chiefs
132 plays, one strand. Chiefs won without the lead ever changing hands; Broncos peaked at 44% to win, Chiefs at 100%. The white spine is the win probability, every rung a snap: up for KC, down for DEN, as long as the yards it gained.
↳Bottom lineThe lead never changed hands; Broncos peaked at 44% to win, Chiefs at 100%.
?How to read this chart
- Read it left to right:
- kickoff on the left, final whistle on the right.
- The white line
- is the chance that Chiefs win, play by play. High = KC in control, low = DEN in control, the middle is a coin flip. Each crossing of the middle is a change in who was more likely to win.
- Each little bar is one play:
- up for KC on offense, down for DEN; the longer the bar, the more yards. The key under the picture explains the marks (touchdown, turnover, field goal, punt).
Chiefs ↑
Broncos ↓The strands compared
?How to read this chart
- Each row compares the two teams
- on one stat: DEN on the left, KC on the right. The longer bar is the bigger number.
- Explosive plays
- are long gains (big runs and passes). Peak win prob. is the highest chance to win each team reached at any moment.
Every possession
?How to read this chart
- Each tile is one possession,
- in game order, colored by the team that had the ball.
- Inside:
- the team, how it ended (TD = touchdown, FG = field goal, INT = interception, FUM = fumble, otherwise punt or downs) and the yards gained. Brighter tiles are drives that scored.
The plays that moved it most
↳Bottom lineThe biggest swing: play 1, 3.1 expected points against Broncos.
?How to read this chart
- The strip is the game clock;
- each numbered dot is one of the plays below, placed when it happened and colored by the team on offense.
- EP (expected points)
- is how many points the play added to (+) or took away from (−) the offense's expected score. +3.5 EP is worth more than a field goal; big minus numbers are usually turnovers.
- 1Q1 13:39 · DEN · Interception−3.1 EP
10-B.Nix pass deep middle intended for 14-C.Sutton INTERCEPTED by 5-M.Delane at KC 49. 5-M.Delane to DEN 46 for 5 yards (14-C.Sutton).
- 2Q1 11:35 · KC · Run+2.8 EP
64-H.Nourzad and 92-K.Tonga reported in as eligible. 9-K.Walker up the middle to DEN 35 for 3 yards (96-E.Uwazurike; 9-T.Hufanga).
- 3Q1 8:20 · KC · Touchdown+2.8 EP
15-P.Mahomes scrambles up the middle for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- 4Q3 12:53 · KC · Touchdown+6.6 EP
73-J.Ezeudu, 77-J.Moore and 92-K.Tonga reported in as eligible. 9-K.Walker left end for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- 5Q3 9:47 · KC · Interception−5.8 EP
15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle intended for 1-X.Worthy INTERCEPTED by 22-B.Jones at KC 29. 22-B.Jones to KC 5 for 24 yards (77-J.Moore).
- 6Q3 6:09 · KC · Completion+5.1 EP
15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce to DEN 4 for 59 yards (23-J.Barron).
- 7Q3 0:35 · DEN · Fumble lost−3.5 EP
10-B.Nix sacked at DEN 26 for -9 yards (91-F.Anudike-Uzomah). FUMBLES (91-F.Anudike-Uzomah), RECOVERED by KC-95-C.Jones at DEN 34.
- 8Q4 15:00 · KC · Completion+3.1 EP
15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 10-E.Johnson to DEN 4 for 25 yards (23-J.Barron) [99-Z.Allen]. PENALTY on DEN-49-A.Singleton, Unnecessary Ro
The one play that could have changed it
?How to read this chart
- The line is win probability
- over the game (top = home team ahead). The dot marks the one play that could have gone either way; the big % is the losing team's chance right after it.
- Press Flip it
- to see where that chance would have gone if the play had gone the other way. Only that instant is priced: the rest of the game never happened.
10@31Week 1Changes the winnerIf the Broncos had stopped that fourth-and-2
Q1 11:35 64-H.Nourzad and 92-K.Tonga reported in as eligible. 9-K.Walker up the middle to DEN 35 for 3 yards (96-E.Uwazurike; 9-T.Hufanga).
41@23
36@31
59@37
10@34
23@10
27@33
22@39
22@24
