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Buccaneers DeskBy the Numbers

Buccaneers defense leads the league in EPA allowed while the passing game ranks 30th

Tampa Bay is 3-6 with a plus-24 point differential, a number that rests on the NFL's top-ranked defense and a pass offense that ranks 30th.

DefenseBy the Numbers-0.20Offense EPA/play · Week 9
By Buccaneers Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 11, 12:10 PM ET2 min read

-0.107: the offense ranks 28th, and the passing game is the reason

The Buccaneers average -0.107 EPA per play, 28th in the league. EPA, expected points added, measures how much each snap moves a team's scoring chances, so a negative number means the drive is losing ground on average. Tampa Bay's success rate is 41%.

The split is lopsided. The pass offense ranks 30th, while the run game ranks 10th.

Baker Mayfield has 170 plays at -0.26 EPA per play with a 36% success rate and a completion percentage over expected of -1.5. In the last three weeks the numbers are worse: -0.27 on 52 plays, 33% success and -5.4 completion percentage over expected. Detroit will see a quarterback whose accuracy is sliding, not stabilizing.

2%: the early-down pass rate swung from 66% to a near-zero week and back

The Bucs threw on 66% of early downs in Week 1. They dropped to 41% in Week 5 and posted 0.162 EPA per play. In Week 7 the rate was 16% and the offense hit 0.212. In Week 8 it was 2%, and EPA fell to -0.167.

Week 9 brought the rate back to 50%, and EPA was -0.205. The two best offensive games of the year came when Tampa Bay threw the least on early downs, but the Week 8 game shows that running nearly every time is not a fix by itself.

Bucky Irving has 825 yards at 0.01 EPA per play. Over the last three weeks he has 373 yards on 71 plays at 0.04 and a 51% success rate. Kenny Gainwell is at 0.06 and 52% on 44 plays in that stretch. Both backs are efficient enough to carry a plan, though neither is a big gainer.

-0.164: the defense ranks first, and it has allowed positive EPA in only two games

Opponents average -0.164 EPA per play against Tampa Bay, the best mark in the league, and succeed on 40% of snaps. The pass defense ranks 2nd and the run defense 5th.

Only Week 2 (0.009) and Week 4 (0.018) came in above zero. The high point was Week 8 at -0.521, the lowest figure on the schedule. The defense has been that good, which is why points allowed stand at 178 against 202 scored.

One item to watch is the safety group. Antoine Winfield Jr. played 96% of snaps in Week 8 and 48% in Week 9. Ifeatu Melifonwu went from 99% in Week 6 to 49% in Week 9.

0.88: Tez Johnson is the only target who has pushed the passing numbers up lately

In the last three weeks, Tez Johnson has 109 yards on seven plays, with 0.88 EPA per play and a 57% success rate. Chris Godwin Jr. is at 0.19 for the season on 38 plays.

Emeka Egbuka leads the team with a 23% target share, but he sits at -0.22 EPA per play on 54 plays. Cade Otton has been at -1.11 over the last three weeks. The target volume is going to the receivers who are producing the least.

The Buccaneers are 3-6 and in third place in the NFC South. Carolina and New Orleans are both 3-5. Tampa Bay plays at the Detroit Lions in Week 11, Sunday, Nov. 22, at 1:00 PM ET on Fox.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.