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Week 10
Latest
InjuryShy Tuttle: Questionable → Active14 min agoPro Football RumorsCardinals’ Budda Baker Interested In Joining Contender; Bills, Jags Checked InBuffalo Bills'A difference maker' | Bills GM Brandon Beane details how Amani Hooker trade went down and how he'll fitInjuryChig Okonkwo: Questionable → Active32 min agoSeattle SeahawksFantasy Football Week 10 Guide: Top Starts And Waiver Wire RankingsESPNFrom 2-7 to 6-2: Josh Downs reacts to Chiefs trade with Vince Carter GIFInjuryCarl Granderson: Active → Cleared47 min agoInjuryCharlie Jones: Questionable → Active47 min agoPro Football RumorsRaiders Name Fernando Mendoza Starting QBLas Vegas RaidersFernando Mendoza named Raiders' starting quarterbackCleveland BrownsBrowns announce unofficial depth chart for Week 10 vs. the TexansPro Football RumorsVikings Had Interest In Justin Herbert, Daniel Jones, Geno SmithLos Angeles RamsFirst Look: Rams take on Cardinals in Arizona in Week 10 riding three-game win streakESPNRB Jonathan Taylor, QB Daniel Jones remain with Colts as trade deadline passesESPNCommanders stand pat at trade deadlineSeattle SeahawksHow To Watch, Listen And Follow Seahawks at Raiders In Week 10 On Sunday, November 15ESPNGiants' Nabers calls Fox analyst Olsen's body language critique a 'lie'ESPNFalcons trade center Ryan Neuzil to Ravens for guard Andrew Vorhees, pickVikings DeskVikings lose by 17 and the snaps say it should have been worse2 h agoInjuryJ.J. McCarthy: Active → Questionable2 h agoInjuryCam Skattebo: Active → Out2 h agoGiants DeskJameis Winston's minus-0.05 EPA per play meets a Commanders defense ranked 20th2 h ago
WSH ThuNYG NE SunDET BUF SunNYJ CAR SunNO HOU SunCLE JAX SunTEN KC SunATL MIA SunIND MIN SunGB LAR SunARI SEA SunLV SF SunDAL PIT SunCIN LAC MonBAL
The LabEvery game, drawn from every snap

Week 1 · 2026Bills 36 · 31 Texans

148 plays, one strand. Bills won after 8 lead changes; Bills peaked at 77% to win, Texans at 74%. The white spine is the win probability, every rung a snap: up for HOU, down for BUF, as long as the yards it gained.

Game pageDownload poster (SVG)All games

Bottom line8 lead changes; Bills peaked at 77% to win, Texans at 74%.

How to read this chart
Read it left to right:
kickoff on the left, final whistle on the right.
The white line
is the chance that Texans win, play by play. High = HOU in control, low = BUF in control, the middle is a coin flip. Each crossing of the middle is a change in who was more likely to win.
Each little bar is one play:
up for HOU on offense, down for BUF; the longer the bar, the more yards. The key under the picture explains the marks (touchdown, turnover, field goal, punt).
Texans ↑Bills ↓
Q2Q3Q4Q1FUMTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFUMHOU ↑ HOMEBUF ↓ AWAY
win probabilityhome snapaway snaptouchdownturnoverfield goalpuntincomplete
Head to head

The strands compared

How to read this chart
Each row compares the two teams
on one stat: BUF on the left, HOU on the right. The longer bar is the bigger number.
Explosive plays
are long gains (big runs and passes). Peak win prob. is the highest chance to win each team reached at any moment.
BUFHOU
52Plays73
410Yards381
7Explosive plays7
4Offensive TDs4
0Turnovers2
77%Peak win prob.74%
Drive by drive

Every possession

How to read this chart
Each tile is one possession,
in game order, colored by the team that had the ball.
Inside:
the team, how it ended (TD = touchdown, FG = field goal, INT = interception, FUM = fumble, otherwise punt or downs) and the yards gained. Brighter tiles are drives that scored.
BUF–30yHOUFUM1yBUFFG9yHOUTD76yBUFTD67yHOUTD65yBUFTD19yHOUPunt8yBUFTD96yHOUTD65yBUF–3yHOUPunt5yBUFPunt29yHOUPunt5yBUFFG12yHOUTD72yBUFFG52yHOUFG36yBUFPunt0yHOUPunt1yBUFTD93yHOUFUM47y
Key moments

The plays that moved it most

Largest swings in expected points

Bottom lineThe biggest swing: play 1, 4.3 expected points against Bills.

How to read this chart
The strip is the game clock;
each numbered dot is one of the plays below, placed when it happened and colored by the team on offense.
EP (expected points)
is how many points the play added to (+) or took away from (−) the offense's expected score. +3.5 EP is worth more than a field goal; big minus numbers are usually turnovers.
12345678
  1. 1
    Q1 11:18 · BUF · Run

    17-J.Allen left end to HOU 36 for -2 yards (3-K.Lassiter).

    −4.3 EP
  2. 2
    Q1 9:40 · HOU · Fumble lost

    7-C.Stroud sacked at HOU 29 for -5 yards (15-G.Rousseau). FUMBLES (15-G.Rousseau) [15-G.Rousseau], RECOVERED by BUF-91-E.Oliver at HOU 32.

    −4.3 EP
  3. 3
    Q1 2:30 · HOU · Completion

    7-C.Stroud pass deep right to 12-N.Collins pushed ob at BUF 2 for 25 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson).

    +3.0 EP
  4. 4
    Q2 10:06 · HOU · Run

    7-C.Stroud scrambles up the middle to BUF 47 for 15 yards (8-T.Bernard).

    +2.6 EP
  5. 5
    Q2 1:39 · BUF · Touchdown

    17-J.Allen pass deep right to 2-D.Moore for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    +4.2 EP
  6. 6
    Q4 12:44 · BUF · Completion

    17-J.Allen pass deep right to 86-D.Kincaid to HOU 20 for 40 yards (2-C.Bullock).

    +3.7 EP
  7. 7
    Q4 1:41 · BUF · Touchdown

    17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 5-J.Palmer for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    +4.6 EP
  8. 8
    Q4 0:16 · HOU · Fumble lost

    7-C.Stroud sacked at BUF 28 for -10 yards (15-G.Rousseau). FUMBLES (15-G.Rousseau) [15-G.Rousseau], RECOVERED by BUF-8-T.Bernard at BUF 24.

    −2.7 EP
Sliding Doors

The one play that could have changed it

All sliding doors →
How to read this chart
The line is win probability
over the game (top = home team ahead). The dot marks the one play that could have gone either way; the big % is the losing team's chance right after it.
Press Flip it
to see where that chance would have gone if the play had gone the other way. Only that instant is priced: the rest of the game never happened.
36@31Week 1

If the Texans had recovered that fumble

Texans after the play57%what really happened
TexansBillsthe rest never happened

Q4 3:13 4-J.Cook left guard to BUF 16 for 12 yards (24-D.Stingley). FUMBLES (24-D.Stingley), recovered by BUF-64-O.Torrence at BUF 19.

Week 1

The rest of the week

Every week →
Patriots at Seahawks, Game DNA10@1349ers at Rams, Game DNA27@7Falcons at Steelers, Game DNA13@20Ravens at Colts, Game DNA41@23Bears at Panthers, Game DNA59@37Browns at Jaguars, Game DNA10@34Saints at Lions, Game DNA30@31Jets at Titans, Game DNA23@10Buccaneers at Bengals, Game DNA27@33Cardinals at Chargers, Game DNA26@14Packers at Vikings, Game DNA22@39Dolphins at Raiders, Game DNA13@27Commanders at Eagles, Game DNA22@24Cowboys at Giants, Game DNA20@28Broncos at Chiefs, Game DNA10@31