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The LabEvery game, drawn from every snap

Week 1 · 2026Buccaneers 27 · 33 Bengals

133 plays, one strand. Bengals won after 1 lead change; Buccaneers peaked at 55% to win, Bengals at 100%. The white spine is the win probability, every rung a snap: up for CIN, down for TB, as long as the yards it gained.

Game pageDownload poster (SVG)All games

Bottom line1 lead change; Buccaneers peaked at 55% to win, Bengals at 100%.

How to read this chart
Read it left to right:
kickoff on the left, final whistle on the right.
The white line
is the chance that Bengals win, play by play. High = CIN in control, low = TB in control, the middle is a coin flip. Each crossing of the middle is a change in who was more likely to win.
Each little bar is one play:
up for CIN on offense, down for TB; the longer the bar, the more yards. The key under the picture explains the marks (touchdown, turnover, field goal, punt).
Bengals ↑Buccaneers ↓
Q2Q3Q4Q1FUMFUMTDFUMTDTDINTFUMTDCIN ↑ HOMETB ↓ AWAY
win probabilityhome snapaway snaptouchdownturnoverfield goalpuntincomplete
Head to head

The strands compared

How to read this chart
Each row compares the two teams
on one stat: TB on the left, CIN on the right. The longer bar is the bigger number.
Explosive plays
are long gains (big runs and passes). Peak win prob. is the highest chance to win each team reached at any moment.
TBCIN
51Plays62
283Yards352
2Explosive plays5
2Offensive TDs2
4Turnovers1
55%Peak win prob.100%
Drive by drive

Every possession

How to read this chart
Each tile is one possession,
in game order, colored by the team that had the ball.
Inside:
the team, how it ended (TD = touchdown, FG = field goal, INT = interception, FUM = fumble, otherwise punt or downs) and the yards gained. Brighter tiles are drives that scored.
TBFG51yCINPunt4yTBFUM-6yTBFUM3yCINTD33yTBFUM50yCINTD80yTBTD70yCINFG66yCINFG36yTBFG33yCININT5yCINFG38yTBFUM26yCINFG35yTBTD56yCIN–55y
Key moments

The plays that moved it most

Largest swings in expected points

Bottom lineThe biggest swing: play 1, 6.6 expected points against Buccaneers.

How to read this chart
The strip is the game clock;
each numbered dot is one of the plays below, placed when it happened and colored by the team on offense.
EP (expected points)
is how many points the play added to (+) or took away from (−) the offense's expected score. +3.5 EP is worth more than a field goal; big minus numbers are usually turnovers.
12345678
  1. 1
    Q1 6:29 · TB · Fumble lost

    6-B.Mayfield sacked at TB 25 for -8 yards (sack split by 99-M.Murphy and 49-B.Carter). FUMBLES (99-M.Murphy) [49-B.Carter], touched at TB 26

    −6.6 EP
  2. 2
    Q1 5:38 · TB · Fumble lost

    6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 7-B.Irving to TB 32 for 7 yards (6-B.Cook) [97-D.Lawrence]. FUMBLES (6-B.Cook), RECOVERED by CIN-53-B.Mafe

    −2.8 EP
  3. 3
    Q2 12:15 · TB · Fumble lost

    6-B.Mayfield scrambles up the middle to CIN 4 for 8 yards (49-B.Carter). FUMBLES (49-B.Carter), RECOVERED by CIN-6-B.Cook at CIN -3. Touchba

    −6.1 EP
  4. 4
    Q3 13:37 · CIN · Completion

    9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 5-T.Higgins pushed ob at TB 44 for 29 yards (31-A.Winfield) [97-A.Muhammad].

    +3.0 EP
  5. 5
    Q3 2:24 · CIN · Interception

    9-J.Burrow pass short right intended for 80-A.Iosivas INTERCEPTED by 45-J.Trotter [50-V.Vea] at CIN 38. 45-J.Trotter for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN

    −7.5 EP
  6. 6
    Q3 1:37 · CIN · Completion

    9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 88-M.Gesicki to CIN 46 for 24 yards (31-A.Winfield).

    +3.1 EP
  7. 7
    Q4 14:09 · CIN · Field goal

    2-E.McPherson 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

    +3.0 EP
  8. 8
    Q4 10:41 · TB · Fumble lost

    6-B.Mayfield sacked at TB 39 for -7 yards (53-B.Mafe). FUMBLES (53-B.Mafe) [53-B.Mafe], touched at TB 43, RECOVERED by CIN-98-T.Slaton at TB

    −5.2 EP
Sliding Doors

The one play that could have changed it

All sliding doors →
How to read this chart
The line is win probability
over the game (top = home team ahead). The dot marks the one play that could have gone either way; the big % is the losing team's chance right after it.
Press Flip it
to see where that chance would have gone if the play had gone the other way. Only that instant is priced: the rest of the game never happened.
27@33Week 1

If the 58-yard kick had missed

Buccaneers after the play14%what really happened
BengalsBuccaneersthe rest never happened

Q4 14:09 2-E.McPherson 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

Week 1

The rest of the week

Every week →
Patriots at Seahawks, Game DNA10@1349ers at Rams, Game DNA27@7Falcons at Steelers, Game DNA13@20Ravens at Colts, Game DNA41@23Bills at Texans, Game DNA36@31Bears at Panthers, Game DNA59@37Browns at Jaguars, Game DNA10@34Saints at Lions, Game DNA30@31Jets at Titans, Game DNA23@10Cardinals at Chargers, Game DNA26@14Packers at Vikings, Game DNA22@39Dolphins at Raiders, Game DNA13@27Commanders at Eagles, Game DNA22@24Cowboys at Giants, Game DNA20@28Broncos at Chiefs, Game DNA10@31