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Week 10
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Green Bay PackersMike's Mid-Week Chat | Nov. 11, 2026Texans DeskTexans offense posts its best EPA per play of the year in Week 911 min agoRams DeskRams pass on 58% of early downs again after a 41% week, and Puka Nacua feeds on it12 min agoInjuryGarrett Wilson: Questionable → Out13 min agoPanthers DeskCarolina's offense rebounds in Week 9 after two negative-EPA games21 min agoFalcons DeskFalcons' eighth-ranked run game has slipped as the offense sits 25th22 min agoInjuryDenzel Boston: Active → Questionable28 min agoEagles DeskEagles run defense ranks 31st while the offense stalls at a 24% success rate31 min agoCommanders DeskCommanders pass on 66% of early downs in Week 9 and the offense slides to -0.177 EPA a play32 min agoCarolina PanthersPanthers open practice windows for three, among other movesBaltimore RavensMailbag: Will Jacoby Brissett Turn the Ravens' Season Around?Buccaneers DeskBuccaneers defense leads the league in EPA allowed while the passing game ranks 30th41 min agoBears DeskBears pass on early downs 64% in Week 9 and the offense stalls42 min agoSan Francisco 49ersWays to Watch and Listen: 49ers vs. Cowboys | Week 10Pro Football RumorsColts Designate DE Arden Key For ReturnNew York GiantsArvell Reese named NFC Defensive Player of the WeekBrowns DeskBrowns rank 30th against the run, and the offense fell to 33% success in Week 951 min agoHouston TexansHouston Texans QB C.J. Stroud Named AFC Offensive Player Of The WeekLos Angeles RamsLos Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals: How to watch, listen to and live stream Week 10New York GiantsGame Preview: Nothing worthwhile comes easy for first-place GiantsGreen Bay PackersPackers QB Jordan Love named NFC Offensive Player of the WeekBuffalo BillsBills roster moves Nov. 11
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Rams DeskBy the Numbers

Rams pass on 58% of early downs again after a 41% week, and Puka Nacua feeds on it

The Rams swung from 41% early-down passing in Week 8 to 58% in Week 9, and Puka Nacua took 43% of targets over the last three weeks.

Puka NacuaBy the Numbers+0.00Offense EPA/play · Week 9WRPuka Nacua
By Rams Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 11, 12:40 PM ET2 min read

58%: the early-down pass rate snapped back up

The Rams passed on 58% of their early downs against a 41% rate the week before, a 17-point swing. Week 8 was the lowest figure of the season. Weeks 3 through 6 ran at 69, 69, 68 and 66%, and Week 1 sat at 48%.

The results do not point to one answer. Week 7 produced the best success rate of the year, 58%, with a 45% pass rate. Week 9 produced a 43% success rate and 0.002 EPA per play, meaning expected points added, the points a play adds or costs against what the down and distance usually yield. The Rams are 5-4 and on a three-game winning streak, and the play-caller has not settled on a baseline.

43%: Puka Nacua is the first read

Nacua has drawn 43% of the targets over the last three weeks, against 28% for the season. He has also been efficient with them: 0.36 EPA per play and a 63% success rate, up from 0.23 and 55% across the year. Over the three weeks he has 298 yards.

Nobody else is close. Tyler Higbee and Colby Parkinson each hold an 11% share, and both are negative in EPA per play, at -0.33 and -0.37. Tutu Atwell has 9%. Davante Adams carries a 15% season share with the best EPA per play of the receivers, 0.45, on 49 plays, so the efficiency is there when the ball goes to him.

0.27: Blake Corum is running better than the lead back

Over the last three weeks Blake Corum has 0.27 EPA per play and a 62% success rate on 39 carries, for 224 yards. Kyren Williams has 47 carries for 200 yards, with -0.06 EPA per play and a 38% success rate.

The season numbers tell the same story at a smaller scale. Corum is at 0.14 EPA per play and 55% success, and Williams is at -0.01 and 41%. The Rams rank fourth in rushing offense but 17th in passing offense, so the ground game is the stronger unit, and the carry split does not yet reflect that.

-0.01: the passing game has cooled in the middle

Matthew Stafford sits at 0.06 EPA per play on the season and -0.01 over the last three weeks, with a completion rate 1.9 points below expectation in that stretch, after a season mark of 0. His success rate is nearly flat, 49% against 48%, so the dip is in the size of the gains rather than in staying on schedule. He has 558 yards on 100 plays in the three weeks.

The Rams visit the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday, Nov. 15, at 4:05 PM ET on CBS. Arizona is 3-6 and last in the division, and Los Angeles is third at 5-4 behind the 49ers at 7-1 and the Seahawks at 5-4. The Rams are 3-1 on the road. Watch the early-down pass rate in the first quarter and whether Nacua's share holds near 43%.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.