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Bears DeskBy the Numbers

Bears pass on early downs 64% in Week 9 and the offense stalls

Chicago's two worst offensive weeks by EPA are also its two heaviest early-down passing weeks, and Rome Odunze is the one producing at a high rate.

Rome OdunzeBy the Numbers-0.22Offense EPA/play · Week 9WRRome Odunze
By Bears Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 11, 12:10 PM ET2 min read

64%: the early-down pass rate jumped and the offense went backward

The Bears threw on 64% of their early downs in Week 9. They were at 39% in Week 4 and 49% in Week 1. The offense finished Week 9 at minus-0.218 EPA per play with a 43% success rate.

EPA, expected points added, measures how much each play moves the scoring odds. Zero is a play that changes nothing, so a negative number is lost ground. The only other week that bad was Week 5, when Chicago threw on 67% of early downs and came in at minus-0.34.

The two highest pass-rate weeks of the season are the two worst weeks by EPA. The Week 4 game, at the low end of the pass rate, produced a 55% success rate, the best of the nine weeks. Chicago is 7-2 and holds the second seed, so the record is fine. The pattern is worth tracking anyway.

0.86: Rome Odunze is carrying the efficiency over the last three weeks

Odunze has 0.86 EPA per target over the last three games, with a 67% success rate and 216 yards on 18 targets. His season mark is 0.5 on 51 targets, already the best among the four main receivers. His target share is 17% for the year and 18% over the last three weeks.

Colston Loveland is getting the volume instead. He has a 28% target share over the last three weeks, up from 20% for the season, and he has produced 0.13 EPA per target with a 41% success rate. Luther Burden III sits between them at 0.33 EPA per target and a 64% success rate on a 22% share.

Kalif Raymond is the outlier on the other side. He is at minus-0.45 EPA per target over the last three weeks against 0.28 for the season, and he has 12% of the targets.

0.10: Caleb Williams has cooled from his season line

Williams sits at 0.19 EPA per play for the season, and the last three weeks put him at 0.10. His completion rate over expectation, which compares his completions to what the throws should produce, fell from 6.4 to 3.4. Over those three weeks he has 803 yards on 116 plays.

None of that is poor, and he is still above zero. The offense overall ranks 13th in EPA per play at 0.037, with the pass offense 12th and the rush offense 11th. Nobody on the roster is dragging that number down on his own, and the group is not pulling away from the pack either.

76%: the secondary has changed shape

Kyler Gordon played 76% of the defensive snaps in Week 9. He was at 31% in Week 6. Malik Muhammad went from 84% in Week 6 to 33% in Week 7, and Elijah Hicks dropped from 53% to 10%.

The pass defense ranks seventh, and the defense overall ranks 10th at minus-0.049 EPA allowed per play. The defense held opponents to minus-0.205 in Week 9, so the shuffle has not hurt.

What to watch next

The Bears host the New Orleans Saints in Week 11, Sunday, Nov. 22 at 1:00 PM ET on Fox. Chicago's first-place spot in the division is 7-2, with Detroit and Minnesota at 6-2 and Green Bay at 6-3. The number to follow Sunday is the early-down pass rate, which was 64% last time out.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.