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ESPNQuestions on 2026 NFL trade deadline deals: Does Kirk Cousins lift the Vikings?ESPNNFL Week 10 latest intel, buzz questions, fantasy tips, post-trade deadline newsESPNCowboys rave about Quinnen Williams a year after trade deadline dealESPNBig plays by Broncos defense in late-game situations keying Denver's 7-2 startESPNThe Philadelphia Eagles' 2026 trade haul is likely to age well over timeESPNWhere does Cam Ward stand coming out of the bye?Philadelphia Eagles2026 Salute to Service Nominee: Trailblazer Rachel Washburn's impact goes beyond the uniformsPro Football RumorsCardinals Work Out QBs Cooper Rush, Trevor SiemianESPNWhy Giants' trade attempts 'just didn't happen'ESPNChiefs add WR Josh Downs at NFL trade deadlineESPNHow the Amani Hooker trade helps the Titans rebuildInjuryEric Wilson: Active → Cleared8 h agoPro Football RumorsJets Work Out QBs Bailey Zappe, Austin ReedInjuryZach Allen: Active → Cleared9 h agoPro Football RumorsCowboys Add RB Kendre Miller To Practice SquadESPNHow Josh Downs fits with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offenseInjuryNathan Shepherd: Active → Cleared9 h agoInjuryJoshua Metellus: Active → Cleared10 h agoInjuryJordyn Brooks: Active → Cleared10 h agoInjuryChristian Barmore: Active → Cleared10 h agoInjuryQuentin Lake: Active → Cleared10 h agoInjuryDre'Mont Jones: Active → Cleared10 h ago
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Press room · updated Nov 11, 6:53 AM ET

The numbers,
ready to cite.

Every figure below exists only on Pigskin Nightly. It is recomputed every hour from our own play-by-play, schedule and box-score database, and it is free to quote with a credit and a link. One click copies the sentence, the source and the link.

This week's numbers

10 figures · 2026 season
  1. Luck Index · luckiest recordDenver Broncos
    +2.9wins above what their snaps deserved

    The Denver Broncos are 7-2, but their snaps were worth 4.1 wins: 2.9 wins of luck, the most in the league, with a 6-0 record in one-score games.

    The Verdict, from nflverse play-by-play
    Full dataMethod
  2. Robbed · the season's biggestNew York Jets
    85%deserved win chance, and they lost

    In Week 2 the New York Jets lost 20-17 to the Green Bay Packers while playing like a 5.7-point better team: a team that plays like that wins 85% of the time, the biggest robbery of the season by our deserved-win model.

    The Verdict, from nflverse play-by-play
    Full dataMethod
  3. Biggest mover in our playoff oddsNew England Patriots
    −20points of playoff odds since Week 9

    Our 10,000-season simulation now gives the New England Patriots a 54% chance to make the playoffs, down from 74% before Week 9, the biggest move in the league.

    Pigskin Nightly playoff model, 10,000 simulated seasons
    Full dataMethod
  4. Hardest schedule leftLos Angeles Rams
    +2.8points: average strength of remaining opponents

    The Los Angeles Rams have the hardest remaining schedule in the NFL: their 8 remaining opponents are on average 2.8 points better than a league-average team on a neutral field, by our strength rating.

    Our team strength rating (point differential and net EPA)
    Full dataMethod
  5. The absence that hurts mostMinnesota Vikings
    −0.28EPA per play without Murray

    The Minnesota Vikings have averaged −0.39 EPA per play on offense in the 2 games without Kyler Murray, against −0.11 in his 5 games, and 7.5 points per game against 18.4. It is the biggest drop among players currently listed out or doubtful; Murray is listed doubtful (strain).

    nflverse snap counts and play-by-play, ESPN injury report
    Full dataMethod
  6. The rest edgeLeague
    74%wins with more rest than the opponent

    NFL teams with more days of rest than their opponent are 34-12 this season (73.9%, 46 games), and teams coming off a bye are 13-1.

    Regular-season schedule and results, 2026
    Full dataMethod
  7. Most miles flownSan Francisco 49ers
    37,889air miles this regular season

    The San Francisco 49ers will travel 37,889 air miles this regular season, stadium to stadium and back, the most in the league, including 2 international trips; 21,378 of them are already flown.

    Stadium-to-stadium great-circle distances, full schedule
    Full dataMethod
  8. Coach on Trial · Chicken IndexSeattle Seahawks
    91%of go calls answered with a punt or a kick

    Seattle Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald has punted or kicked on 10 of the 11 fourth downs where our expected-points model said go, a Chicken Index of 91%, the highest among coaches with 8 or more such calls.

    The Verdict, every fourth down graded
    Full dataMethod
  9. Garbage Time Tax · most padded offenseLos Angeles Chargers
    33%of its yards came with the game decided

    33.2% of the Los Angeles Chargers' scrimmage yards this season (775 of 2,333) came with the game already decided, at a win probability under 10% or over 90% before the snap: the highest garbage-time share of any offense.

    The Verdict, from nflverse play-by-play
    Full dataMethod
  10. Milestone watchCincinnati Bengals
    16to 7,500 career receiving yards

    Ja'Marr Chase is 16 yards short of 7,500 career receiving yards: at his current pace of 80.9 yards a game he gets there in his next game, Week 10 against the Pittsburgh Steelers (Nov 15).

    nflverse career totals since 1999 plus this season's box scores
    Full dataMethod

How to use these numbers

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Pigskin Nightly, in fact

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