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The LabEvery game, drawn from every snap

Week 1 · 2026Jets 23 · 10 Titans

135 plays, one strand. Jets won without the lead ever changing hands; Jets peaked at 100% to win, Titans at 55%. The white spine is the win probability, every rung a snap: up for TEN, down for NYJ, as long as the yards it gained.

Bottom lineThe lead never changed hands; Jets peaked at 100% to win, Titans at 55%.

How to read this chart
Read it left to right:
kickoff on the left, final whistle on the right.
The white line
is the chance that Titans win, play by play. High = TEN in control, low = NYJ in control, the middle is a coin flip. Each crossing of the middle is a change in who was more likely to win.
Each little bar is one play:
up for TEN on offense, down for NYJ; the longer the bar, the more yards. The key under the picture explains the marks (touchdown, turnover, field goal, punt).
Titans ↑Jets ↓
Q2Q3Q4Q1TDTDTDTEN ↑ HOMENYJ ↓ AWAY
win probabilityhome snapaway snaptouchdownturnoverfield goalpuntincomplete
Head to head

The strands compared

How to read this chart
Each row compares the two teams
on one stat: NYJ on the left, TEN on the right. The longer bar is the bigger number.
Explosive plays
are long gains (big runs and passes). Peak win prob. is the highest chance to win each team reached at any moment.
NYJTEN
60Plays49
370Yards195
7Explosive plays1
2Offensive TDs1
0Turnovers0
100%Peak win prob.55%
Drive by drive

Every possession

How to read this chart
Each tile is one possession,
in game order, colored by the team that had the ball.
Inside:
the team, how it ended (TD = touchdown, FG = field goal, INT = interception, FUM = fumble, otherwise punt or downs) and the yards gained. Brighter tiles are drives that scored.
NYJTD55yTENFG46yNYJPunt4yTENPunt2yNYJFG78yNYJFG ✕2yTENPunt7yNYJ–33yTENPunt20yNYJTD90yTENPunt7yNYJFG60yTENPunt30yNYJPunt9yTENPunt2yNYJPunt9yTENPunt16yNYJFG19yTENTD65yNYJ–11y
Key moments

The plays that moved it most

Largest swings in expected points

Bottom lineThe biggest swing: play 1, 3.6 expected points for Jets.

How to read this chart
The strip is the game clock;
each numbered dot is one of the plays below, placed when it happened and colored by the team on offense.
EP (expected points)
is how many points the play added to (+) or took away from (−) the offense's expected score. +3.5 EP is worth more than a field goal; big minus numbers are usually turnovers.
12345678
  1. 1
    Q1 12:10 · NYJ · Completion

    7-G.Smith pass short left to 11-O.Cooper to TEN 4 for 30 yards (24-A.Taylor; 11-J.Johnson).

    +3.6 EP
  2. 2
    Q1 4:11 · NYJ · Run

    7-G.Smith FUMBLES (Aborted) at NYJ 19, and recovers at NYJ 18.

    −2.0 EP
  3. 3
    Q2 10:14 · NYJ · Completion

    7-G.Smith pass short middle to 5-G.Wilson to TEN 31 for 9 yards (23-K.Winston; 24-A.Taylor).

    +2.8 EP
  4. 4
    Q2 2:44 · NYJ · Missed field goal

    19-J.Sanders 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

    −3.0 EP
  5. 5
    Q3 12:19 · NYJ · Completion

    7-G.Smith pass deep right to 5-G.Wilson pushed ob at TEN 41 for 31 yards (24-A.Taylor).

    +2.1 EP
  6. 6
    Q3 11:14 · NYJ · Completion

    7-G.Smith pass deep right to 15-A.Mitchell to TEN 11 for 40 yards (37-A.Hooker).

    +2.7 EP
  7. 7
    Q4 5:05 · NYJ · Field goal

    19-J.Sanders 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

    +1.9 EP
  8. 8
    Q4 2:45 · TEN · Touchdown

    1-C.Ward pass short right to 5-E.Ayomanor for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    +3.4 EP
Sliding Doors

The one play that could have changed it

How to read this chart
The line is win probability
over the game (top = home team ahead). The dot marks the one play that could have gone either way; the big % is the losing team's chance right after it.
Press Flip it
to see where that chance would have gone if the play had gone the other way. Only that instant is priced: the rest of the game never happened.

If the Titans had stopped that fourth-and-2

Titans after the play32%what really happened
TitansJetsthe rest never happened

Q2 10:14 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 5-G.Wilson to TEN 31 for 9 yards (23-K.Winston; 24-A.Taylor).

Week 1

The rest of the week