Pigskin NightlyWeek 10
Latest
WSH ThuNYG NE SunDET BUF SunNYJ CAR SunNO HOU SunCLE JAX SunTEN KC SunATL MIA SunIND MIN SunGB LAR SunARI SEA SunLV SF SunDAL PIT SunCIN LAC MonBAL
The LabEvery game, drawn from every snap

Week 1 · 2026Cardinals 26 · 14 Chargers

145 plays, one strand. Cardinals won without the lead ever changing hands; Cardinals peaked at 100% to win, Chargers at 69%. The white spine is the win probability, every rung a snap: up for LAC, down for ARI, as long as the yards it gained.

Bottom lineThe lead never changed hands; Cardinals peaked at 100% to win, Chargers at 69%.

How to read this chart
Read it left to right:
kickoff on the left, final whistle on the right.
The white line
is the chance that Chargers win, play by play. High = LAC in control, low = ARI in control, the middle is a coin flip. Each crossing of the middle is a change in who was more likely to win.
Each little bar is one play:
up for LAC on offense, down for ARI; the longer the bar, the more yards. The key under the picture explains the marks (touchdown, turnover, field goal, punt).
Chargers ↑Cardinals ↓
Q2Q3Q4Q1TDTDFUMTDTDINTLAC ↑ HOMEARI ↓ AWAY
win probabilityhome snapaway snaptouchdownturnoverfield goalpuntincomplete
Head to head

The strands compared

How to read this chart
Each row compares the two teams
on one stat: ARI on the left, LAC on the right. The longer bar is the bigger number.
Explosive plays
are long gains (big runs and passes). Peak win prob. is the highest chance to win each team reached at any moment.
ARILAC
69Plays51
396Yards268
3Explosive plays3
2Offensive TDs2
0Turnovers2
100%Peak win prob.69%
Drive by drive

Every possession

How to read this chart
Each tile is one possession,
in game order, colored by the team that had the ball.
Inside:
the team, how it ended (TD = touchdown, FG = field goal, INT = interception, FUM = fumble, otherwise punt or downs) and the yards gained. Brighter tiles are drives that scored.
ARITD70yLACTD77yARIFG ✕44yLACFUM22yARIFG66yLAC–52yARIFG52yLACPunt24yARIFG75yLACTD12yARIPunt35yLACPunt11yARIPunt9yLACPunt-1yARITD3yLACINT24yARIPunt34yLAC–38yARIFG8yLAC–9y
Key moments

The plays that moved it most

Largest swings in expected points

Bottom lineThe biggest swing: play 1, 2.3 expected points for Cardinals.

How to read this chart
The strip is the game clock;
each numbered dot is one of the plays below, placed when it happened and colored by the team on offense.
EP (expected points)
is how many points the play added to (+) or took away from (−) the offense's expected score. +3.5 EP is worth more than a field goal; big minus numbers are usually turnovers.
12345678
  1. 1
    Q1 13:30 · ARI · Run

    7-J.Brissett scrambles left end ran ob at LAC 30 for 11 yards (45-T.Tuipulotu).

    +2.3 EP
  2. 2
    Q2 14:55 · ARI · Missed field goal

    38-C.Ryland 54 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

    −4.0 EP
  3. 3
    Q2 13:37 · LAC · Fumble lost

    8-O.Hampton left end to ARI 31 for -1 yards (28-A.Wingard). FUMBLES (28-A.Wingard), RECOVERED by ARI-2-W.Johnson at ARI 34.

    −5.2 EP
  4. 4
    Q2 2:00 · LAC · Sack

    10-J.Herbert sacked at ARI 13 for -10 yards (55-D.Stills).

    −3.2 EP
  5. 5
    Q3 11:27 · ARI · Completion

    7-J.Brissett pass deep left to 18-M.Harrison to ARI 45 for 33 yards (20-C.Hart) [53-D.Phillips].

    +2.8 EP
  6. 6
    Q3 6:07 · LAC · Touchdown

    10-J.Herbert pass short right to 15-L.McConkey for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    +2.6 EP
  7. 7
    Q4 12:28 · LAC · Punt

    16-J.Scott punt is BLOCKED by 80-S.Fehoko, Center-47-J.Harris, recovered by LAC-30-A.Ingold at LAC 3.

    −4.4 EP
  8. 8
    Q4 9:50 · LAC · Interception

    10-J.Herbert pass deep right intended for 12-D.Davis INTERCEPTED by 28-A.Wingard at ARI 5. 28-A.Wingard to ARI 5 for no gain (12-D.Davis). P

    −2.4 EP
Sliding Doors

The one play that could have changed it

How to read this chart
The line is win probability
over the game (top = home team ahead). The dot marks the one play that could have gone either way; the big % is the losing team's chance right after it.
Press Flip it
to see where that chance would have gone if the play had gone the other way. Only that instant is priced: the rest of the game never happened.
26@14Week 1Changes the winner

If the 44-yard kick had missed

Chargers after the play33%what really happened
ChargersCardinalsthe rest never happened

Q2 0:04 38-C.Ryland 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

Week 1

The rest of the week