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Week 10
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Panthers DeskBy the Numbers

Carolina's offense rebounds in Week 9 after two negative-EPA games

A 47% success rate in Week 9 followed a 34% game. Quarterback efficiency and a reshuffled defense will decide whether it holds at New Orleans.

By the NumbersOffense+0.13Offense EPA/play · Week 9
By Panthers Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 11, 12:31 PM ET2 min read

47%: the success rate bounced back from 34%

Carolina's offense had a successful play on 47% of its snaps in Week 9, up 13 points from 34% in Week 8. EPA per play, which is expected points added and measures how much each snap moves the scoring outlook, went from -0.149 to 0.125 over the same stretch.

The season line is 43% success and 0.042 EPA per play, ninth in the league. Week 9 was the first game above that success mark since Week 6, when the Panthers posted 44%. They have lost three straight, so the rebound has not yet shown up in the record of 3-5.

63%: the early-down pass rate is back where the season began

The Panthers threw on 71% of early downs in Week 7, then 64% in Week 8 and 63% in Week 9. That matches Week 1 and sits four points above the 59% of Week 6.

The heaviest pass game was also the worst one. Week 7 produced an EPA per play of -0.268. The best game, Week 4 at 0.289 EPA and 50% success, came with a 61% early-down pass rate. Carolina ranks 13th in pass offense and 12th in rush offense, so the data does not point to one side of the ball as the clear way to lean.

-0.16: Bryce Young is below his season line over three weeks

Bryce Young has 0.07 EPA per play on the season, with 44% success and a completion percentage over expectation of 1.3. Over the last three weeks those numbers are -0.16, 41% and -1.9, across 123 plays and 564 yards.

The targets have not slipped evenly. Tetairoa McMillan holds a 24% target share over that span, with 0.23 EPA per play and 58% success. Darren Waller has 0.54 EPA per play on 14 plays, for 151 yards. Jalen Coker sits at -0.32 EPA per play on 14 plays. Chuba Hubbard has 0.04 EPA per play on the ground in the last three weeks, against 0.06 for the season.

99%: the defense is working through a reshuffle

The defense is 21st in EPA allowed per play at 0.03 and allows a 44% success rate. It is 20th against the pass and 25th against the run.

The snap counts show where the changes came. Tyrel Dodson went from 0% of the snaps in Week 6 to 99% in Week 9. Chau Smith-Wade moved from 3% to 60% at cornerback over the same weeks, while Will Lee dropped from 100% in Week 6 to 30% in Week 8. Up front, Torricelli Simpkins rose from 20% in Week 7 to 100% in Week 9, and Taylor Moton fell from 100% in Week 6 to 41% in Week 7.

The Week 9 defense allowed 0.043 EPA per play, a hair above its season mark of 0.03.

What to watch

Carolina and New Orleans are both 3-5 and sit first and second in the division. They meet Sunday, Nov. 15, at 1:00 PM ET on Fox, with the Panthers on the road. Watch whether the success rate holds near 47% and whether the early-down pass rate stays around 63%.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.