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Texans DeskBy the Numbers

Texans offense posts its best EPA per play of the year in Week 9

Houston's offense hit 0.280 EPA per play against Week 9's defense, and the receiver snaps are shifting toward Tank Dell, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Xavier Hutchinson.

Tank DellBy the Numbers+0.28Offense EPA/play · Week 9WRTank Dell
By Texans Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 11, 12:41 PM ET2 min read

0.280: the best EPA per play of the season came in Week 9

The Texans offense produced 0.280 EPA per play in Week 9. EPA, expected points added, measures how many points a play is worth compared with what the down and distance would predict. That tops Week 4 (0.238) and Week 6 (0.225), and it sits 0.22 above the season mark of 0.06, which ranks eighth in the league.

C.J. Stroud drives the pass offense, which ranks seventh. Over the last three weeks he has posted 0.29 EPA per play on 68 plays, up from 0.19 for the season. His completion percentage over expected (CPOE) went the other way: minus 4.8 over those three weeks against plus 1.8 for the year. Next Sunday, that gap between efficiency and accuracy is the number to track.

56%: the early-down pass rate has settled after Week 2

In Week 2 the Texans passed on 76 percent of early downs and managed minus 0.247 EPA per play with a 33 percent success rate. Since then the rate has stayed between 51 and 59 percent, and Week 9 landed at 56. That is 20 points lower than Week 2.

The run game explains part of the lean. Houston ranks 25th in rush offense. Woody Marks has minus 0.14 EPA per play on 95 plays with a 35 percent success rate, and David Montgomery has minus 0.35 on 52 plays at 25 percent. In the last three weeks Marks has a 38 percent success rate on 37 plays. Cleveland will see a pass-first early-down script unless those numbers move.

0.65: Tank Dell leads the recent receiver group, and the snaps are moving

Over the last three weeks Tank Dell has 0.65 EPA per play and 148 yards on 10 plays. Dalton Schultz has 0.41 on 10 plays, Xavier Hutchinson 0.22 on 11 and Nico Collins 0.23 on 9. Collins still owns the best season line among the regulars at 0.67 EPA per play and a 62 percent success rate on 39 plays.

The snap counts show where the plan is heading. Marvin Harrison Jr. went from 19 percent of snaps in Week 6 to 46 percent in Week 9, and Hutchinson from 54 to 81 percent. Tight end Foster Moreau dropped from 62 percent to 27. More receivers on the field is the formation shift behind the passing numbers.

0.003: the defense is average, and the schedule turns to the road

Houston allows 0.003 EPA per play, which ranks 16th, with a 41 percent success rate allowed. Pass defense and rush defense both rank 17th. The Week 9 defense allowed minus 0.179 EPA per play, a clear improvement on the 0.244 allowed in Week 7.

The Texans are 3-5, second in the AFC South behind Jacksonville at 6-2, with a point differential of plus 17. All three wins came away from home, and they have lost all four home games. The Browns game is on the road, Sunday, Nov. 15 at 1:00 PM ET on Fox.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.