The LabThe fingerprint of every playbook

Buffalo BillsScheme DNA

Least shotgun rate, least outside runs in the league. Their closest twin is Raiders (62% alike), then Dolphins and Patriots. 496 offensive snaps read, 421 of them charted.

League map Bills verdict JSON

Shotgun rate44.4%0th percentile · league 61.5%

Outside runs14.6%3th percentile · league 23.4%

Deep shots15.4%87th percentile · league 11.5%

Play action27.3%84th percentile · league 23.1%

Bottom lineTheir loudest habits: shotgun rate (44.4%, 0th percentile), outside runs (14.6%, 3th percentile), deep shots (15.4%, 87th percentile).

How to read this chart

The flower:: each petal is one play-calling habit, labeled around the edge. Petal length is the team's rank among the 32 (long = does it more than most; for tempo, long = fast). The dashed ring is the league middle.
The bars:: the same habits as a list: the bar is the rank (the tick in the middle is the league middle), then the real value and the percentile (90 = more than 90% of teams). Jargon: pass rate over expected = how much more or less they throw than the situation predicts; RPO = run-pass option; men in the box = defenders near the line against the run.

Offense

The playbook

Pass rate over expected−5.0%26

Early-down pass rate50.5%42

Shotgun rate44.4%0

No-huddle rate4.2%32

Pre-snap motion65.3%81

Play action27.3%84

Screen rate10.0%65

RPO rate5.7%61

Deep shots15.4%87

Middle of the field23.5%74

Outside runs14.6%3

Tempo37.9s61

Defense

The defense

Blitz rate37.9%77

Five-plus rushers37.9%77

Men in the box6.8090

Stacked boxes17.4%94

Pass rate faced−0.6%77

Deep shots allowed10.2%39

Defensive twins: Buccaneers (86%), Bears (83%), Jaguars (82%).

Twins

Offenses most like theirs

Solid shape: Bills · outline: the twin

Bottom lineBills and Raiders, 62% alike. Both run inside more and line up under center more than most of the league; Bills and Raiders differ most in deep shots (15.4% vs 9.3%) and shotgun rate (44.4% vs 55.6%).

How to read this chart

Each card is one twin:: an offense that calls games like Bills. The colored shape is Bills's fingerprint, the white outline the twin's. Where the two match, the habits match.
The %: is how alike the two are across all offensive habits: 100% would be identical, 0% the most different pair in the league.

#1 twinRaiders62%Both run inside more and line up under center more than most of the league; Bills and Raiders differ most in deep shots (15.4% vs 9.3%) and shotgun rate (44.4% vs 55.6%).

#2 twinDolphins61%Both take more deep shots and move more before the snap than most of the league; Bills and Dolphins differ most in shotgun rate (44.4% vs 57.8%) and outside runs (14.6% vs 22.7%).

#3 twinPatriots60%Both take more deep shots and run inside more than most of the league; Bills and Patriots differ most in shotgun rate (44.4% vs 59.6%) and throws over the middle (23.5% vs 15.4%).

Run game

Where they run

Arrow size = share of carries · color = EPA per carry

Bottom lineTheir favorite lane: middle, 32% of runs, +0.08 EPA per carry.

How to read this chart

Seen from behind the offense:: the line at the bottom is the line of scrimmage, with seven running lanes from the left end to the right end.
Arrow size: and the % above it = share of the team's runs that go there.
Arrow color: = how well those runs work, in EPA per carry (expected points added: above zero helps the offense). Green works, grey is average, red hurts.

Pass game

Where they throw

Share of targets · EPA per throw

Bottom lineMost targeted zone: short right, 38% of throws, +0.26 EPA per throw.

How to read this chart

The field from the quarterback's eyes:: left, middle and right; the bottom row is short throws, the top row deep throws.
Each box: shows the share of throws that go there (more solid = more throws) and its color the EPA per throw: green helps the offense, grey is average, red hurts.

Formation Tell

What the formation gives away

How to read this chart

Two dots on one line from 0% to 100%:: how often they throw when the quarterback is under center, and how often from shotgun, on neutral downs.
The gap between them: is what a defense learns from the formation alone: a wide gap means the alignment tips run or pass.

Under center37%pass rate, neutral downs

Shotgun76%pass rate, neutral downs

A 39-point gap: middle of the pack offenses in the league (24 of 32). See all 32 →