The LabEvery game, drawn from every snap

Week 4 · 2026Dolphins 10 · 15 Vikings

136 plays, one strand. Vikings won without the lead ever changing hands; Dolphins peaked at 50% to win, Vikings at 99%. The white spine is the win probability, every rung a snap: up for MIN, down for MIA, as long as the yards it gained.

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Bottom lineThe lead never changed hands; Dolphins peaked at 50% to win, Vikings at 99%.

How to read this chart

Read it left to right:: kickoff on the left, final whistle on the right.
The white line: is the chance that Vikings win, play by play. High = MIN in control, low = MIA in control, the middle is a coin flip. Each crossing of the middle is a change in who was more likely to win.
Each little bar is one play:: up for MIN on offense, down for MIA; the longer the bar, the more yards. The key under the picture explains the marks (touchdown, turnover, field goal, punt).

Vikings ↑

Dolphins ↓

win probabilityhome snapaway snaptouchdownturnoverfield goalpuntincomplete

Head to head

The strands compared

How to read this chart

Each row compares the two teams: on one stat: MIA on the left, MIN on the right. The longer bar is the bigger number.
Explosive plays: are long gains (big runs and passes). Peak win prob. is the highest chance to win each team reached at any moment.

MIAMIN

37Plays69

198Yards341

3Explosive plays6

1Offensive TDs0

1Turnovers0

50%Peak win prob.99%

Drive by drive

Every possession

How to read this chart

Each tile is one possession,: in game order, colored by the team that had the ball.
Inside:: the team, how it ended (TD = touchdown, FG = field goal, INT = interception, FUM = fumble, otherwise punt or downs) and the yards gained. Brighter tiles are drives that scored.

MINPunt4yMIAPunt16yMINFG19yMIAPunt31yMINPunt6yMIAPunt6yMINFG55yMIAFUM10yMINPunt2yMIAPunt13yMINFG61yMIAFG60yMINFG47yMIAPunt5yMINPunt-2yMIATD55yMINFG60yMIAPunt2yMIN–89y

Key moments

The plays that moved it most

Largest swings in expected points

Bottom lineThe biggest swing: play 1, 2.2 expected points against Dolphins.

How to read this chart

The strip is the game clock;: each numbered dot is one of the plays below, placed when it happened and colored by the team on offense.
EP (expected points): is how many points the play added to (+) or took away from (−) the offense's expected score. +3.5 EP is worth more than a field goal; big minus numbers are usually turnovers.

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1
Q1 11:04 · MIA · Punt
48-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to MIN 26, Center-46-T.Addington. 4-M.Price ran ob at MIA 38 for 36 yards (84-R.Miller).
−2.2 EP
2
Q1 3:27 · MIA · Sack
2-M.Willis sacked at MIA 44 for -8 yards (15-D.Turner).
−2.6 EP
3
Q2 14:56 · MIN · Sack
1-K.Murray sacked at MIN 22 for -8 yards (9-J.Uche).
−2.1 EP
4
Q2 5:50 · MIA · Fumble lost
2-M.Willis pass incomplete short left to 5-J.Wright. Minnesota challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 2-M.Willis
−4.7 EP
5
Q3 14:08 · MIA · Run
0-O.Gordon left tackle pushed ob at MIN 11 for 53 yards (7-B.Murphy; 22-H.Smith).
+4.7 EP
6
Q3 4:57 · MIA · Run
5-J.Wright left guard to MIA 38 for -3 yards (17-K.Van Noy).
−2.2 EP
7
Q3 2:43 · MIN · Sack
1-K.Murray sacked at MIN 24 for -11 yards (44-C.Robinson).
−3.5 EP
8
Q4 2:07 · MIN · Completion
1-K.Murray pass short left to 87-T.Hockenson to MIA 2 for 8 yards (16-M.Taaffe).
+2.5 EP

Sliding Doors

The one play that could have changed it

All sliding doors →

How to read this chart

The line is win probability: over the game (top = home team ahead). The dot marks the one play that could have gone either way; the big % is the losing team's chance right after it.
Press Flip it: to see where that chance would have gone if the play had gone the other way. Only that instant is priced: the rest of the game never happened.

10@15

Week 4

If the Dolphins had stopped that fourth-and-1

Dolphins after the play21%what really happened

Q4 10:08 33-A.Jones up the middle to MIA 27 for 3 yards (9-J.Uche; 20-J.Brooks).

Week 4

The rest of the week

23@30

26@32

45@24