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The LabEvery game, drawn from every snap

Week 4 · 2026Jets 12 · 23 Bears

138 plays, one strand. Bears won without the lead ever changing hands; Jets peaked at 49% to win, Bears at 100%. The white spine is the win probability, every rung a snap: up for CHI, down for NYJ, as long as the yards it gained.

Game pageDownload poster (SVG)All games

Bottom lineThe lead never changed hands; Jets peaked at 49% to win, Bears at 100%.

How to read this chart
Read it left to right:
kickoff on the left, final whistle on the right.
The white line
is the chance that Bears win, play by play. High = CHI in control, low = NYJ in control, the middle is a coin flip. Each crossing of the middle is a change in who was more likely to win.
Each little bar is one play:
up for CHI on offense, down for NYJ; the longer the bar, the more yards. The key under the picture explains the marks (touchdown, turnover, field goal, punt).
Bears ↑Jets ↓
Q2Q3Q4Q1TDINTFUMTDTDCHI ↑ HOMENYJ ↓ AWAY
win probabilityhome snapaway snaptouchdownturnoverfield goalpuntincomplete
Head to head

The strands compared

How to read this chart
Each row compares the two teams
on one stat: NYJ on the left, CHI on the right. The longer bar is the bigger number.
Explosive plays
are long gains (big runs and passes). Peak win prob. is the highest chance to win each team reached at any moment.
NYJCHI
32Plays86
157Yards495
1Explosive plays8
1Offensive TDs2
0Turnovers2
49%Peak win prob.100%
Drive by drive

Every possession

How to read this chart
Each tile is one possession,
in game order, colored by the team that had the ball.
Inside:
the team, how it ended (TD = touchdown, FG = field goal, INT = interception, FUM = fumble, otherwise punt or downs) and the yards gained. Brighter tiles are drives that scored.
CHI–78yNYJPunt9yCHITD67yNYJPunt3yCHIINT12yNYJFG16yCHIFG54yNYJPunt6yCHIFG63yNYJPunt24yCHIFUM24yNYJFG21yCHITD57yNYJPunt6yCHIFG77yNYJTD72yCHI–63y
Key moments

The plays that moved it most

Largest swings in expected points

Bottom lineThe biggest swing: play 1, 2.6 expected points for Bears.

How to read this chart
The strip is the game clock;
each numbered dot is one of the plays below, placed when it happened and colored by the team on offense.
EP (expected points)
is how many points the play added to (+) or took away from (−) the offense's expected score. +3.5 EP is worth more than a field goal; big minus numbers are usually turnovers.
12345678
  1. 1
    Q1 12:05 · CHI · Completion

    17-T.Bagent pass short middle to 15-R.Odunze to CHI 47 for 21 yards (6-D.Belton). New York Jets challenged the runner was down by contact ru

    +2.6 EP
  2. 2
    Q1 9:14 · CHI · Run

    4-D.Swift left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 4-D.S

    −3.6 EP
  3. 3
    Q2 11:52 · CHI · Interception

    17-T.Bagent pass deep middle intended for 84-C.Loveland INTERCEPTED by 29-M.Fitzpatrick at NYJ 39. 29-M.Fitzpatrick ran ob at CHI 34 for 27

    −5.8 EP
  4. 4
    Q2 0:27 · CHI · Completion

    17-T.Bagent pass deep middle to 15-R.Odunze to NYJ 16 for 37 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick).

    +2.4 EP
  5. 5
    Q3 10:58 · NYJ · Sack

    7-G.Smith sacked at CHI 41 for -8 yards (12-D.Bush).

    −3.2 EP
  6. 6
    Q3 8:52 · CHI · Fumble lost

    4-D.Swift left guard to CHI 28 for no gain (44-J.Sherwood). FUMBLES (44-J.Sherwood), RECOVERED by NYJ-21-B.Stephens at CHI 28. 21-B.Stephens

    −5.2 EP
  7. 7
    Q4 10:47 · CHI · Run

    25-K.Monangai left tackle to NYJ 3 for -2 yards (91-J.Briggs, 99-T.Sweat).

    −2.8 EP
  8. 8
    Q4 9:25 · NYJ · Touchdown

    7-G.Smith pass deep middle to 18-I.Williams for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN [96-J.van den Berg].

    +5.0 EP
Sliding Doors

The one play that could have changed it

All sliding doors →
How to read this chart
The line is win probability
over the game (top = home team ahead). The dot marks the one play that could have gone either way; the big % is the losing team's chance right after it.
Press Flip it
to see where that chance would have gone if the play had gone the other way. Only that instant is priced: the rest of the game never happened.
12@23Week 4Changes the winner

If the Jets had stopped that fourth-and-1

Jets after the play32%what really happened
BearsJetsthe rest never happened

Q1 2:56 4-D.Swift right end to NYJ 8 for 13 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick).

Week 4

The rest of the week

Every week →
Steelers at Browns, Game DNA24@27Colts at Commanders, Game DNA30@13Cardinals at Giants, Game DNA24@36Cowboys at Texans, Game DNA34@30Packers at Buccaneers, Game DNA17@14Jaguars at Bengals, Game DNA22@17Rams at Eagles, Game DNA24@20Patriots at Bills, Game DNA29@26Titans at Ravens, Game DNA18@24Dolphins at Vikings, Game DNA10@15Broncos at 49ers, Game DNA14@24Chiefs at Raiders, Game DNA30@27Chargers at Seahawks, Game DNA23@30Lions at Panthers, Game DNA26@32Falcons at Saints, Game DNA45@24