The LabEvery game, drawn from every snap

Week 4 · 2026Patriots 29 · 26 Bills

144 plays, one strand. Patriots won after 4 lead changes; Patriots peaked at 94% to win, Bills at 77%. The white spine is the win probability, every rung a snap: up for BUF, down for NE, as long as the yards it gained.

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Bottom line4 lead changes; Patriots peaked at 94% to win, Bills at 77%.

How to read this chart

Read it left to right:: kickoff on the left, final whistle on the right.
The white line: is the chance that Bills win, play by play. High = BUF in control, low = NE in control, the middle is a coin flip. Each crossing of the middle is a change in who was more likely to win.
Each little bar is one play:: up for BUF on offense, down for NE; the longer the bar, the more yards. The key under the picture explains the marks (touchdown, turnover, field goal, punt).

Bills ↑

Patriots ↓

win probabilityhome snapaway snaptouchdownturnoverfield goalpuntincomplete

Head to head

The strands compared

How to read this chart

Each row compares the two teams: on one stat: NE on the left, BUF on the right. The longer bar is the bigger number.
Explosive plays: are long gains (big runs and passes). Peak win prob. is the highest chance to win each team reached at any moment.

NEBUF

72Plays55

409Yards340

6Explosive plays7

4Offensive TDs3

2Turnovers2

94%Peak win prob.77%

Drive by drive

Every possession

How to read this chart

Each tile is one possession,: in game order, colored by the team that had the ball.
Inside:: the team, how it ended (TD = touchdown, FG = field goal, INT = interception, FUM = fumble, otherwise punt or downs) and the yards gained. Brighter tiles are drives that scored.

BUFPunt5yNETD97yBUFTD69yNEFUM30yBUFPunt7yNETD63yBUFTD67yNEPunt0yBUFFUM30yNEINT0yBUFFG0yNETD73yBUFPunt5yNEPunt23yBUFPunt6yNEPunt8yBUFFG60yNEPunt26yBUFTD80yNETD75yBUFINT11yNE–14y

Key moments

The plays that moved it most

Largest swings in expected points

Bottom lineThe biggest swing: play 1, 3.1 expected points for Patriots.

How to read this chart

The strip is the game clock;: each numbered dot is one of the plays below, placed when it happened and colored by the team on offense.
EP (expected points): is how many points the play added to (+) or took away from (−) the offense's expected score. +3.5 EP is worth more than a field goal; big minus numbers are usually turnovers.

12345678

1
Q1 7:40 · NE · Completion
10-D.Maye pass short left to 87-R.Doubs pushed ob at BUF 14 for 15 yards (1-M.Hairston).
+3.1 EP
2
Q1 3:27 · BUF · Completion
17-J.Allen pass short right to 26-T.Johnson to NE 32 for 9 yards (14-R.Spillane).
+2.9 EP
3
Q2 10:14 · NE · Fumble lost
10-D.Maye sacked at BUF 30 for -7 yards (sack split by 99-T.Parker and 91-E.Oliver). FUMBLES (99-T.Parker), RECOVERED by BUF-97-G.Gaines at
−5.4 EP
4
Q2 6:25 · NE · Run
10-D.Maye scrambles left end pushed ob at BUF 1 for 26 yards (23-D.Alford; 24-C.Bishop).
+2.9 EP
5
Q2 3:24 · BUF · Completion
17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 10-K.Shakir pushed ob at NE 6 for 51 yards (22-C.Woods; 4-C.Woodson).
+3.5 EP
6
Q2 0:16 · NE · Interception
10-D.Maye pass short left intended for 87-R.Doubs INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Alford at NE 46. 23-D.Alford to NE 9 for 37 yards (55-J.Wilson).
−3.1 EP
7
Q4 4:33 · BUF · Touchdown
17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 0-K.Coleman for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
+3.5 EP
8
Q4 1:55 · NE · Touchdown
10-D.Maye pass deep right to 86-E.Chism for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
+3.5 EP

Sliding Doors

The one play that could have changed it

All sliding doors →

How to read this chart

The line is win probability: over the game (top = home team ahead). The dot marks the one play that could have gone either way; the big % is the losing team's chance right after it.
Press Flip it: to see where that chance would have gone if the play had gone the other way. Only that instant is priced: the rest of the game never happened.

29@26

Week 4

If that interception had fallen incomplete

Bills after the play8%what really happened

Q4 1:14 17-J.Allen pass deep left intended for 5-J.Palmer INTERCEPTED by 4-C.Woodson at NE 19. 4-C.Woodson to NE 19 for no gain (5-J.Palmer).

Week 4

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