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The LabEvery game, drawn from every snap

Week 4 · 2026Chiefs 30 · 27 Raiders

159 plays, one strand. Chiefs won after 3 lead changes; Chiefs peaked at 97% to win, Raiders at 76%. The white spine is the win probability, every rung a snap: up for LV, down for KC, as long as the yards it gained.

Game pageDownload poster (SVG)All games

Bottom line3 lead changes; Chiefs peaked at 97% to win, Raiders at 76%.

How to read this chart
Read it left to right:
kickoff on the left, final whistle on the right.
The white line
is the chance that Raiders win, play by play. High = LV in control, low = KC in control, the middle is a coin flip. Each crossing of the middle is a change in who was more likely to win.
Each little bar is one play:
up for LV on offense, down for KC; the longer the bar, the more yards. The key under the picture explains the marks (touchdown, turnover, field goal, punt).
Raiders ↑Chiefs ↓
Q2Q3Q4Q1TDTDTDTDTDTDINTLV ↑ HOMEKC ↓ AWAY
win probabilityhome snapaway snaptouchdownturnoverfield goalpuntincomplete
Head to head

The strands compared

How to read this chart
Each row compares the two teams
on one stat: KC on the left, LV on the right. The longer bar is the bigger number.
Explosive plays
are long gains (big runs and passes). Peak win prob. is the highest chance to win each team reached at any moment.
KCLV
58Plays76
400Yards439
7Explosive plays7
4Offensive TDs2
0Turnovers1
97%Peak win prob.76%
Drive by drive

Every possession

How to read this chart
Each tile is one possession,
in game order, colored by the team that had the ball.
Inside:
the team, how it ended (TD = touchdown, FG = field goal, INT = interception, FUM = fumble, otherwise punt or downs) and the yards gained. Brighter tiles are drives that scored.
KC–27yLVTD50yKCTD64yLVPunt16yKCPunt46yLVFG61yKCFG70yLVFG36yLV–44yKCPunt15yLVPunt31yKCPunt3yLVPunt16yKCTD84yLVFG19yKCPunt5yLVFG65yKCTD62yKCTD22yLVTD47yKCPunt2yLVINT54y
Key moments

The plays that moved it most

Largest swings in expected points

Bottom lineThe biggest swing: play 1, 3.6 expected points for Chiefs.

How to read this chart
The strip is the game clock;
each numbered dot is one of the plays below, placed when it happened and colored by the team on offense.
EP (expected points)
is how many points the play added to (+) or took away from (−) the offense's expected score. +3.5 EP is worth more than a field goal; big minus numbers are usually turnovers.
12345678
  1. 1
    Q1 13:21 · KC · Run

    (Punt formation) 14-M.Araiza right end to KC 42 for 12 yards (34-C.Heyward).

    +3.6 EP
  2. 2
    Q1 10:48 · KC · Run

    9-K.Walker up the middle to LV 49 for 1 yard (17-N.Dean).

    −3.1 EP
  3. 3
    Q1 4:33 · KC · Completion

    15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 1-X.Worthy to LV 7 for 41 yards (5-E.Stokes).

    +4.3 EP
  4. 4
    Q3 11:37 · LV · Incomplete

    8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 2-A.Jeanty (23-D.Tranquill) [56-G.Karlaftis].

    −3.6 EP
  5. 5
    Q3 0:30 · KC · Run

    9-K.Walker right guard pushed ob at LV 8 for 76 yards (3-T.Johnson).

    +4.9 EP
  6. 6
    Q4 13:25 · LV · Completion

    8-K.Cousins pass short right to 89-B.Bowers to KC 25 for 21 yards (5-M.Delane).

    +3.2 EP
  7. 7
    Q4 3:35 · KC · Completion

    15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 2-T.Thornton to LV 5 for 55 yards (31-T.Stukes). KC-2-T.Thornton was injured during the play. PENALTY on LV-7

    +5.2 EP
  8. 8
    Q4 1:54 · LV · Touchdown

    8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 89-B.Bowers for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    +3.0 EP
Sliding Doors

The one play that could have changed it

All sliding doors →
How to read this chart
The line is win probability
over the game (top = home team ahead). The dot marks the one play that could have gone either way; the big % is the losing team's chance right after it.
Press Flip it
to see where that chance would have gone if the play had gone the other way. Only that instant is priced: the rest of the game never happened.
30@27Week 4

If the Raiders had recovered that fumble

Raiders after the play11%what really happened
RaidersChiefsthe rest never happened

Q4 1:35 52-C.Humphrey to KC 43 for -4 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by KC-15-P.Mahomes at KC 38. 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep right to 1-X.Worthy (3-T.Johnson).

Week 4

The rest of the week

Every week →
Steelers at Browns, Game DNA24@27Colts at Commanders, Game DNA30@13Cardinals at Giants, Game DNA24@36Cowboys at Texans, Game DNA34@30Packers at Buccaneers, Game DNA17@14Jaguars at Bengals, Game DNA22@17Rams at Eagles, Game DNA24@20Patriots at Bills, Game DNA29@26Jets at Bears, Game DNA12@23Titans at Ravens, Game DNA18@24Dolphins at Vikings, Game DNA10@15Broncos at 49ers, Game DNA14@24Chargers at Seahawks, Game DNA23@30Lions at Panthers, Game DNA26@32Falcons at Saints, Game DNA45@24