Pigskin NightlyWeek 10
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WSH ThuNYG NE SunDET BUF SunNYJ CAR SunNO HOU SunCLE JAX SunTEN KC SunATL MIA SunIND MIN SunGB LAR SunARI SEA SunLV SF SunDAL PIT SunCIN LAC MonBAL
The LabEvery game, drawn from every snap

Week 4 · 2026Cardinals 24 · 36 Giants

151 plays, one strand. Giants won after 3 lead changes; Cardinals peaked at 76% to win, Giants at 88%. The white spine is the win probability, every rung a snap: up for NYG, down for ARI, as long as the yards it gained.

Bottom line3 lead changes; Cardinals peaked at 76% to win, Giants at 88%.

How to read this chart
Read it left to right:
kickoff on the left, final whistle on the right.
The white line
is the chance that Giants win, play by play. High = NYG in control, low = ARI in control, the middle is a coin flip. Each crossing of the middle is a change in who was more likely to win.
Each little bar is one play:
up for NYG on offense, down for ARI; the longer the bar, the more yards. The key under the picture explains the marks (touchdown, turnover, field goal, punt).
Giants ↑Cardinals ↓
Q2Q3Q4Q1TDTDINTTDINTTDINTINTTDTDFUMINTNYG ↑ HOMEARI ↓ AWAY
win probabilityhome snapaway snaptouchdownturnoverfield goalpuntincomplete
Head to head

The strands compared

How to read this chart
Each row compares the two teams
on one stat: ARI on the left, NYG on the right. The longer bar is the bigger number.
Explosive plays
are long gains (big runs and passes). Peak win prob. is the highest chance to win each team reached at any moment.
ARINYG
63Plays63
270Yards321
4Explosive plays5
3Offensive TDs3
3Turnovers3
76%Peak win prob.88%
Drive by drive

Every possession

How to read this chart
Each tile is one possession,
in game order, colored by the team that had the ball.
Inside:
the team, how it ended (TD = touchdown, FG = field goal, INT = interception, FUM = fumble, otherwise punt or downs) and the yards gained. Brighter tiles are drives that scored.
ARITD58yNYGFG56yARITD74yNYGFG13yARIINT-3yNYGPunt5yARIPunt4yNYGPunt7yARIPunt2yNYGTD41yARIINT8yNYGTD26yARIPunt-16yNYGINT14yARIFG33yNYGINT7yARITD35yNYGTD78yARIPunt19yNYGFUM42yARIPunt3yNYGPunt16yARIPunt8yNYGFG16yARIINT45y
Key moments

The plays that moved it most

Largest swings in expected points

Bottom lineThe biggest swing: play 1, 4.4 expected points for Giants.

How to read this chart
The strip is the game clock;
each numbered dot is one of the plays below, placed when it happened and colored by the team on offense.
EP (expected points)
is how many points the play added to (+) or took away from (−) the offense's expected score. +3.5 EP is worth more than a field goal; big minus numbers are usually turnovers.
12345678
  1. 1
    Q1 10:26 · NYG · Completion

    19-J.Winston pass deep right to 1-M.Nabers to ARI 40 for 39 yards (28-A.Wingard). NYG-1-M.Nabers was injured during the play.

    +4.4 EP
  2. 2
    Q2 4:36 · NYG · Touchdown

    19-J.Winston pass short right to 88-M.Fields for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    +2.8 EP
  3. 3
    Q2 3:15 · ARI · Interception

    7-J.Brissett pass short left intended for 14-Mi.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 52-A.Reese (93-S.Harris) at ARI 34. 52-A.Reese to ARI 26 for 8 yards (

    −4.7 EP
  4. 4
    Q2 2:28 · NYG · Touchdown

    19-J.Winston pass deep middle to 1-M.Nabers for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-D.Stills].

    +3.6 EP
  5. 5
    Q3 5:47 · NYG · Completion

    19-J.Winston pass deep left to 88-M.Fields pushed ob at ARI 18 for 40 yards (31-W.Williams).

    +4.3 EP
  6. 6
    Q4 12:42 · NYG · Completion

    19-J.Winston pass deep right to 9-I.Likely to ARI 44 for 34 yards (3-B.Baker; 31-W.Williams).

    +3.1 EP
  7. 7
    Q4 11:14 · NYG · Fumble lost

    23-N.Harris left guard to ARI 41 for 2 yards (1-Ma.Wilson; 55-D.Stills). FUMBLES (1-Ma.Wilson), RECOVERED by ARI-25-Z.Collins at ARI 42.

    −4.5 EP
  8. 8
    Q4 0:11 · ARI · Interception

    7-J.Brissett pass short left intended for 14-Mi.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 2-D.Banks at NYG 2. 2-D.Banks for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    −9.6 EP
Sliding Doors

The one play that could have changed it

How to read this chart
The line is win probability
over the game (top = home team ahead). The dot marks the one play that could have gone either way; the big % is the losing team's chance right after it.
Press Flip it
to see where that chance would have gone if the play had gone the other way. Only that instant is priced: the rest of the game never happened.

If the 39-yard kick had missed

Cardinals after the play57%what really happened
GiantsCardinalsthe rest never happened

Q1 6:40 34-D.Zvada 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.

Week 4

The rest of the week