Pigskin NightlyWeek 10
Latest
WSH ThuNYG NE SunDET BUF SunNYJ CAR SunNO HOU SunCLE JAX SunTEN KC SunATL MIA SunIND MIN SunGB LAR SunARI SEA SunLV SF SunDAL PIT SunCIN LAC MonBAL
The LabEvery game, drawn from every snap

Week 4 · 2026Titans 18 · 24 Ravens

144 plays, one strand. Ravens won without the lead ever changing hands; Titans peaked at 48% to win, Ravens at 100%. The white spine is the win probability, every rung a snap: up for BAL, down for TEN, as long as the yards it gained.

Bottom lineThe lead never changed hands; Titans peaked at 48% to win, Ravens at 100%.

How to read this chart
Read it left to right:
kickoff on the left, final whistle on the right.
The white line
is the chance that Ravens win, play by play. High = BAL in control, low = TEN in control, the middle is a coin flip. Each crossing of the middle is a change in who was more likely to win.
Each little bar is one play:
up for BAL on offense, down for TEN; the longer the bar, the more yards. The key under the picture explains the marks (touchdown, turnover, field goal, punt).
Ravens ↑Titans ↓
Q2Q3Q4Q1INTTDTDTDTDFUMTDBAL ↑ HOMETEN ↓ AWAY
win probabilityhome snapaway snaptouchdownturnoverfield goalpuntincomplete
Head to head

The strands compared

How to read this chart
Each row compares the two teams
on one stat: TEN on the left, BAL on the right. The longer bar is the bigger number.
Explosive plays
are long gains (big runs and passes). Peak win prob. is the highest chance to win each team reached at any moment.
TENBAL
59Plays59
299Yards386
5Explosive plays6
2Offensive TDs3
2Turnovers0
48%Peak win prob.100%
Drive by drive

Every possession

How to read this chart
Each tile is one possession,
in game order, colored by the team that had the ball.
Inside:
the team, how it ended (TD = touchdown, FG = field goal, INT = interception, FUM = fumble, otherwise punt or downs) and the yards gained. Brighter tiles are drives that scored.
TENINT15yBALTD37yTENTD65yBALPunt10yTENPunt10yBALTD81yTEN–38yBALTD99yTENPunt20yBALPunt22yTENFUM33yBALFG19yBALPunt12yTENFG37yBALPunt17yTENPunt0yBALPunt9yTENPunt7yBALPunt32yTENPunt2yBALFG ✕48yTENTD72y
Key moments

The plays that moved it most

Largest swings in expected points

Bottom lineThe biggest swing: play 1, 6.7 expected points against Titans.

How to read this chart
The strip is the game clock;
each numbered dot is one of the plays below, placed when it happened and colored by the team on offense.
EP (expected points)
is how many points the play added to (+) or took away from (−) the offense's expected score. +3.5 EP is worth more than a field goal; big minus numbers are usually turnovers.
12345678
  1. 1
    Q1 14:18 · TEN · Interception

    1-C.Ward pass short middle intended for 20-T.Pollard INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Simpson [15-M.Green] at BAL 39. 32-T.Simpson pushed ob at TEN 37 fo

    −6.7 EP
  2. 2
    Q1 12:13 · BAL · Touchdown

    22-D.Henry left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    +2.9 EP
  3. 3
    Q1 6:01 · TEN · Touchdown

    20-T.Pollard right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    +2.3 EP
  4. 4
    Q2 8:20 · TEN · Run

    Direct snap to 20-T.Pollard. 20-T.Pollard right guard to BAL 2 for no gain (92-N.Madubuike).

    −3.1 EP
  5. 5
    Q2 4:44 · BAL · Completion

    8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 4-Z.Flowers to TEN 5 for 52 yards (50-C.Barton).

    +3.6 EP
  6. 6
    Q3 4:24 · BAL · Completion

    5-T.Huntley pass short right to 4-Z.Flowers to TEN 48 for -6 yards (11-J.Johnson).

    −2.4 EP
  7. 7
    Q4 3:24 · BAL · Missed field goal

    33-T.Loop 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.

    −3.6 EP
  8. 8
    Q4 1:51 · TEN · Completion

    1-C.Ward pass deep left to 14-C.Tate to BAL 3 for 33 yards (24-M.Starks) [15-M.Green].

    +4.7 EP
Sliding Doors

The one play that could have changed it

How to read this chart
The line is win probability
over the game (top = home team ahead). The dot marks the one play that could have gone either way; the big % is the losing team's chance right after it.
Press Flip it
to see where that chance would have gone if the play had gone the other way. Only that instant is priced: the rest of the game never happened.
18@24Week 4Changes the winner

If that interception had fallen incomplete

Titans after the play30%what really happened
RavensTitansthe rest never happened

Q1 14:18 1-C.Ward pass short middle intended for 20-T.Pollard INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Simpson [15-M.Green] at BAL 39. 32-T.Simpson pushed ob at TEN 37 for 24 yards (51-A.Schlottmann).

Week 4

The rest of the week