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WSH ThuNYG NE SunDET BUF SunNYJ CAR SunNO HOU SunCLE JAX SunTEN KC SunATL MIA SunIND MIN SunGB LAR SunARI SEA SunLV SF SunDAL PIT SunCIN LAC MonBAL
The LabEvery game, drawn from every snap

Week 4 · 2026Jaguars 22 · 17 Bengals

148 plays, one strand. Jaguars won without the lead ever changing hands; Jaguars peaked at 97% to win, Bengals at 65%. The white spine is the win probability, every rung a snap: up for CIN, down for JAX, as long as the yards it gained.

Game pageDownload poster (SVG)All games

Bottom lineThe lead never changed hands; Jaguars peaked at 97% to win, Bengals at 65%.

How to read this chart
Read it left to right:
kickoff on the left, final whistle on the right.
The white line
is the chance that Bengals win, play by play. High = CIN in control, low = JAX in control, the middle is a coin flip. Each crossing of the middle is a change in who was more likely to win.
Each little bar is one play:
up for CIN on offense, down for JAX; the longer the bar, the more yards. The key under the picture explains the marks (touchdown, turnover, field goal, punt).
Bengals ↑Jaguars ↓
Q2Q3Q4Q1INTTDTDINTTDTDCIN ↑ HOMEJAX ↓ AWAY
win probabilityhome snapaway snaptouchdownturnoverfield goalpuntincomplete
Head to head

The strands compared

How to read this chart
Each row compares the two teams
on one stat: JAX on the left, CIN on the right. The longer bar is the bigger number.
Explosive plays
are long gains (big runs and passes). Peak win prob. is the highest chance to win each team reached at any moment.
JAXCIN
53Plays71
325Yards437
6Explosive plays3
2Offensive TDs2
0Turnovers2
97%Peak win prob.65%
Drive by drive

Every possession

How to read this chart
Each tile is one possession,
in game order, colored by the team that had the ball.
Inside:
the team, how it ended (TD = touchdown, FG = field goal, INT = interception, FUM = fumble, otherwise punt or downs) and the yards gained. Brighter tiles are drives that scored.
JAXPunt15yCINPunt34yJAXFG59yCINFG47yJAXFG83yCININT20yJAXTD24yCIN–45yCINTD62yJAXFG39yCININT74yJAXPunt20yCINPunt18yJAXTD61yCINTD66yJAXPunt24yCIN–71y
Key moments

The plays that moved it most

Largest swings in expected points

Bottom lineThe biggest swing: play 1, 3.2 expected points for Jaguars.

How to read this chart
The strip is the game clock;
each numbered dot is one of the plays below, placed when it happened and colored by the team on offense.
EP (expected points)
is how many points the play added to (+) or took away from (−) the offense's expected score. +3.5 EP is worth more than a field goal; big minus numbers are usually turnovers.
12345678
  1. 1
    Q1 6:25 · JAX · Completion

    16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 85-B.Strange to JAX 34 for 23 yards (22-R.Yeast).

    +3.2 EP
  2. 2
    Q2 13:36 · CIN · Completion

    9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 1-J.Chase to JAX 22 for 17 yards (4-J.Jones) [23-F.Oluokun].

    +2.6 EP
  3. 3
    Q2 2:00 · CIN · Interception

    9-J.Burrow pass short middle intended for 81-D.Meyers INTERCEPTED by 2-J.Lewis [41-J.Hines-Allen] at JAX 37. 2-J.Lewis ran ob at CIN 18 for

    −6.2 EP
  4. 4
    Q2 1:27 · JAX · Touchdown

    16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 7-Bri.Thomas for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    +3.1 EP
  5. 5
    Q3 8:48 · CIN · Touchdown

    9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 88-M.Gesicki for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX-29-E.Murray was injured during the play.

    +3.0 EP
  6. 6
    Q3 1:58 · CIN · Completion

    9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 81-D.Meyers to CIN 49 for 29 yards (25-R.Lane).

    +3.6 EP
  7. 7
    Q4 14:16 · CIN · Interception

    9-J.Burrow pass short right intended for 82-M.Tinsley INTERCEPTED by 23-F.Oluokun at JAX 10. 23-F.Oluokun to JAX 15 for 5 yards (82-M.Tinsle

    −5.0 EP
  8. 8
    Q4 6:42 · JAX · Touchdown

    24-C.Rodriguez left guard for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    +3.0 EP
Sliding Doors

The one play that could have changed it

All sliding doors →
How to read this chart
The line is win probability
over the game (top = home team ahead). The dot marks the one play that could have gone either way; the big % is the losing team's chance right after it.
Press Flip it
to see where that chance would have gone if the play had gone the other way. Only that instant is priced: the rest of the game never happened.
22@17Week 4

If the Bengals had converted that fourth-and-10

Bengals after the play3%what really happened
BengalsJaguarsthe rest never happened

Q4 0:56 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 30-C.Brown to JAX 12 for 9 yards (25-R.Lane).

Week 4

The rest of the week

Every week →
Steelers at Browns, Game DNA24@27Colts at Commanders, Game DNA30@13Cardinals at Giants, Game DNA24@36Cowboys at Texans, Game DNA34@30Packers at Buccaneers, Game DNA17@14Rams at Eagles, Game DNA24@20Patriots at Bills, Game DNA29@26Jets at Bears, Game DNA12@23Titans at Ravens, Game DNA18@24Dolphins at Vikings, Game DNA10@15Broncos at 49ers, Game DNA14@24Chiefs at Raiders, Game DNA30@27Chargers at Seahawks, Game DNA23@30Lions at Panthers, Game DNA26@32Falcons at Saints, Game DNA45@24