Week 4 · 2026Rams 24 · 20 Eagles
161 plays, one strand. Rams won after 1 lead change; Rams peaked at 97% to win, Eagles at 96%. The white spine is the win probability, every rung a snap: up for PHI, down for LAR, as long as the yards it gained.
↳Bottom line1 lead change; Rams peaked at 97% to win, Eagles at 96%.
?How to read this chart
- Read it left to right:
- kickoff on the left, final whistle on the right.
- The white line
- is the chance that Eagles win, play by play. High = PHI in control, low = LAR in control, the middle is a coin flip. Each crossing of the middle is a change in who was more likely to win.
- Each little bar is one play:
- up for PHI on offense, down for LAR; the longer the bar, the more yards. The key under the picture explains the marks (touchdown, turnover, field goal, punt).
The strands compared
?How to read this chart
- Each row compares the two teams
- on one stat: LAR on the left, PHI on the right. The longer bar is the bigger number.
- Explosive plays
- are long gains (big runs and passes). Peak win prob. is the highest chance to win each team reached at any moment.
Every possession
?How to read this chart
- Each tile is one possession,
- in game order, colored by the team that had the ball.
- Inside:
- the team, how it ended (TD = touchdown, FG = field goal, INT = interception, FUM = fumble, otherwise punt or downs) and the yards gained. Brighter tiles are drives that scored.
The plays that moved it most
↳Bottom lineThe biggest swing: play 1, 5.9 expected points against Rams.
?How to read this chart
- The strip is the game clock;
- each numbered dot is one of the plays below, placed when it happened and colored by the team on offense.
- EP (expected points)
- is how many points the play added to (+) or took away from (−) the offense's expected score. +3.5 EP is worth more than a field goal; big minus numbers are usually turnovers.
- 1Q1 12:03 · LAR · Interception−5.9 EP
9-M.Stafford pass deep right intended for 4-K.Mumpfield INTERCEPTED by 24-A.Mukuba at LA 49. 24-A.Mukuba pushed ob at LA 28 for 21 yards (77
- 2Q2 14:53 · PHI · Completion+3.1 EP
1-J.Hurts pass short left to 9-M.Lemon to LA 34 for 13 yards (5-K.Kinchens).
- 3Q2 5:51 · PHI · Touchdown+3.1 EP
1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 80-D.Cooper for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- 4Q2 0:09 · PHI · Touchdown+3.9 EP
1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 80-D.Cooper for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LA-22-T.McDuffie, Illegal Contact, declined.
- 5Q3 7:20 · LAR · Missed field goal−3.9 EP
92-H.Mevis 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans.
- 6Q3 1:07 · PHI · Run−3.4 EP
61-W.Lampkin reported in as eligible. 1-J.Hurts up the middle to PHI 38 for no gain (53-N.Landman).
- 7Q4 7:31 · PHI · Incomplete−2.9 EP
1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 80-D.Cooper.
- 8Q4 1:17 · LAR · Touchdown+3.1 EP
23-K.Williams left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The one play that could have changed it
?How to read this chart
- The line is win probability
- over the game (top = home team ahead). The dot marks the one play that could have gone either way; the big % is the losing team's chance right after it.
- Press Flip it
- to see where that chance would have gone if the play had gone the other way. Only that instant is priced: the rest of the game never happened.
If the 40-yard kick had missed
Q1 2:12 92-H.Mevis 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans.