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WSH ThuNYG NE SunDET BUF SunNYJ CAR SunNO HOU SunCLE JAX SunTEN KC SunATL MIA SunIND MIN SunGB LAR SunARI SEA SunLV SF SunDAL PIT SunCIN LAC MonBAL
The LabEvery game, drawn from every snap

Week 4 · 2026Colts 30 · 13 Commanders

145 plays, one strand. Colts won after 1 lead change; Colts peaked at 100% to win, Commanders at 79%. The white spine is the win probability, every rung a snap: up for WSH, down for IND, as long as the yards it gained.

Game pageDownload poster (SVG)All games

Bottom line1 lead change; Colts peaked at 100% to win, Commanders at 79%.

How to read this chart
Read it left to right:
kickoff on the left, final whistle on the right.
The white line
is the chance that Commanders win, play by play. High = WSH in control, low = IND in control, the middle is a coin flip. Each crossing of the middle is a change in who was more likely to win.
Each little bar is one play:
up for WSH on offense, down for IND; the longer the bar, the more yards. The key under the picture explains the marks (touchdown, turnover, field goal, punt).
Commanders ↑Colts ↓
Q2Q3Q4Q1FUMINTTDINTTDTDTDWSH ↑ HOMEIND ↓ AWAY
win probabilityhome snapaway snaptouchdownturnoverfield goalpuntincomplete
Head to head

The strands compared

How to read this chart
Each row compares the two teams
on one stat: IND on the left, WSH on the right. The longer bar is the bigger number.
Explosive plays
are long gains (big runs and passes). Peak win prob. is the highest chance to win each team reached at any moment.
INDWSH
64Plays61
260Yards317
3Explosive plays4
3Offensive TDs1
2Turnovers1
100%Peak win prob.79%
Drive by drive

Every possession

How to read this chart
Each tile is one possession,
in game order, colored by the team that had the ball.
Inside:
the team, how it ended (TD = touchdown, FG = field goal, INT = interception, FUM = fumble, otherwise punt or downs) and the yards gained. Brighter tiles are drives that scored.
INDFUM-8yWSHFG8yINDPunt7yWSHFG70yINDPunt2yWSHPunt20yINDPunt19yWSHPunt17yINDINT17yWSH–9yINDTD34yWSHPunt23yINDFG51yWSHINT-2yINDTD20yWSHTD70yINDFG32yWSHPunt40yINDPunt12yWSHPunt7yINDTD52yWSH–25yINDFG20yWSH–30yIND–2y
Key moments

The plays that moved it most

Largest swings in expected points

Bottom lineThe biggest swing: play 1, 5.3 expected points against Colts.

How to read this chart
The strip is the game clock;
each numbered dot is one of the plays below, placed when it happened and colored by the team on offense.
EP (expected points)
is how many points the play added to (+) or took away from (−) the offense's expected score. +3.5 EP is worth more than a field goal; big minus numbers are usually turnovers.
12345678
  1. 1
    Q1 14:50 · IND · Fumble lost

    17-D.Jones sacked at IND 24 for -8 yards (98-O.Oweh). FUMBLES (98-O.Oweh) [98-O.Oweh], touched at IND 24, RECOVERED by WAS-98-O.Oweh at IND

    −5.3 EP
  2. 2
    Q1 8:28 · WSH · Completion

    8-M.Mariota pass short left to 22-J.Croskey-Merritt pushed ob at IND 7 for 35 yards (51-A.Davis-Gaither).

    +3.7 EP
  3. 3
    Q2 9:59 · IND · Interception

    17-D.Jones pass short right intended for 16-A.Dulin INTERCEPTED by 29-R.Douglas at WAS 34. 29-R.Douglas to WAS 37 for 3 yards (16-A.Dulin).

    −3.2 EP
  4. 4
    Q2 8:34 · WSH · Run

    32-C.Reynolds up the middle to WAS 46 for no gain (94-J.Tillery; 57-J.Carlies).

    −2.9 EP
  5. 5
    Q3 14:17 · WSH · Interception

    16-A.Kaliakmanis pass short right intended for 14-A.Williams INTERCEPTED by 57-J.Carlies [95-A.Adebawore] at WAS 27. 57-J.Carlies pushed ob

    −3.4 EP
  6. 6
    Q3 10:47 · WSH · Touchdown

    16-A.Kaliakmanis pass deep left to 13-T.Burks for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    +4.2 EP
  7. 7
    Q3 6:56 · WSH · Completion

    16-A.Kaliakmanis pass deep right to 6-D.Brown to IND 36 for 48 yards (1-A.Gardner).

    +3.2 EP
  8. 8
    Q4 8:19 · WSH · Incomplete

    16-A.Kaliakmanis pass incomplete short right to 22-J.Croskey-Merritt [97-L.Latu].

    −3.0 EP
Sliding Doors

The one play that could have changed it

All sliding doors →
How to read this chart
The line is win probability
over the game (top = home team ahead). The dot marks the one play that could have gone either way; the big % is the losing team's chance right after it.
Press Flip it
to see where that chance would have gone if the play had gone the other way. Only that instant is priced: the rest of the game never happened.
30@13Week 4Changes the winner

If the 48-yard kick had missed

Commanders after the play40%what really happened
CommandersColtsthe rest never happened

Q2 0:03 3-S.Shrader 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

Week 4

The rest of the week

Every week →
Steelers at Browns, Game DNA24@27Cardinals at Giants, Game DNA24@36Cowboys at Texans, Game DNA34@30Packers at Buccaneers, Game DNA17@14Jaguars at Bengals, Game DNA22@17Rams at Eagles, Game DNA24@20Patriots at Bills, Game DNA29@26Jets at Bears, Game DNA12@23Titans at Ravens, Game DNA18@24Dolphins at Vikings, Game DNA10@15Broncos at 49ers, Game DNA14@24Chiefs at Raiders, Game DNA30@27Chargers at Seahawks, Game DNA23@30Lions at Panthers, Game DNA26@32Falcons at Saints, Game DNA45@24