The LabEvery game, drawn from every snap

Week 4 · 2026Packers 17 · 14 Buccaneers

134 plays, one strand. Packers won without the lead ever changing hands; Packers peaked at 95% to win, Buccaneers at 60%. The white spine is the win probability, every rung a snap: up for TB, down for GB, as long as the yards it gained.

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Bottom lineThe lead never changed hands; Packers peaked at 95% to win, Buccaneers at 60%.

How to read this chart

Read it left to right:: kickoff on the left, final whistle on the right.
The white line: is the chance that Buccaneers win, play by play. High = TB in control, low = GB in control, the middle is a coin flip. Each crossing of the middle is a change in who was more likely to win.
Each little bar is one play:: up for TB on offense, down for GB; the longer the bar, the more yards. The key under the picture explains the marks (touchdown, turnover, field goal, punt).

Buccaneers ↑

Packers ↓

win probabilityhome snapaway snaptouchdownturnoverfield goalpuntincomplete

Head to head

The strands compared

How to read this chart

Each row compares the two teams: on one stat: GB on the left, TB on the right. The longer bar is the bigger number.
Explosive plays: are long gains (big runs and passes). Peak win prob. is the highest chance to win each team reached at any moment.

GBTB

52Plays61

295Yards275

3Explosive plays2

2Offensive TDs2

2Turnovers2

95%Peak win prob.60%

Drive by drive

Every possession

How to read this chart

Each tile is one possession,: in game order, colored by the team that had the ball.
Inside:: the team, how it ended (TD = touchdown, FG = field goal, INT = interception, FUM = fumble, otherwise punt or downs) and the yards gained. Brighter tiles are drives that scored.

TBPunt8yGBPunt27yTBINT37yGBTD66yTBPunt3yGBPunt4yTBTD54yGBPunt15yTBINT39yGBFG4yGBTD80yTBPunt-1yGBPunt13yTBTD89yGBFUM74yTBPunt8yGBINT12yTB–38yGB–0y

Key moments

The plays that moved it most

Largest swings in expected points

Bottom lineThe biggest swing: play 1, 4.4 expected points against Buccaneers.

How to read this chart

The strip is the game clock;: each numbered dot is one of the plays below, placed when it happened and colored by the team on offense.
EP (expected points): is how many points the play added to (+) or took away from (−) the offense's expected score. +3.5 EP is worth more than a field goal; big minus numbers are usually turnovers.

12345678

1
Q1 7:15 · TB · Interception
10-J.Daniels pass deep left intended for 2-E.Egbuka INTERCEPTED by 33-E.Williams [57-B.Cox] at GB 32. 33-E.Williams ran ob at GB 32 for no g
−4.4 EP
2
Q1 3:45 · GB · Completion
10-J.Love pass short right to 85-T.Kraft pushed ob at TB 18 for 10 yards (22-K.Scott).
+2.4 EP
3
Q2 12:58 · GB · Touchdown
10-J.Love pass short right to 0-M.Golden for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
+3.9 EP
4
Q2 0:41 · TB · Interception
10-J.Daniels pass short left intended for 19-K.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 56-E.Cooper at GB 38. 56-E.Cooper pushed ob at TB 44 for 18 yards (10-
−3.9 EP
5
Q3 12:04 · GB · Run
26-K.Johnson up the middle to TB 5 for 31 yards (31-A.Winfield).
+2.5 EP
6
Q4 14:57 · TB · Touchdown
10-J.Daniels pass short left to 1-K.Gainwell for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
+2.9 EP
7
Q4 9:13 · GB · Fumble lost
26-K.Johnson up the middle to TB 3 for no gain (23-T.Smith). FUMBLES (23-T.Smith), touched at TB 3, RECOVERED by TB-27-Z.McCollum at TB 4.
−5.9 EP
8
Q4 4:26 · GB · Interception
10-J.Love pass deep left intended for 0-M.Golden INTERCEPTED by 25-J.Parrish at TB 7. 25-J.Parrish to TB 15 for 8 yards (85-T.Kraft).
−3.9 EP

Sliding Doors

The one play that could have changed it

All sliding doors →

How to read this chart

The line is win probability: over the game (top = home team ahead). The dot marks the one play that could have gone either way; the big % is the losing team's chance right after it.
Press Flip it: to see where that chance would have gone if the play had gone the other way. Only that instant is priced: the rest of the game never happened.

17@14

Week 4Changes the winner

If the Buccaneers had converted that fourth-and-11

Buccaneers after the play6%what really happened

Q4 1:34 10-J.Daniels pass short middle intended for 17-T.Hurst INTERCEPTED by 25-K.Nixon [33-E.Williams] at GB 43. 25-K.Nixon to GB 43 for no gain (17-T.Hurst). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to 17-T.Hurst (25-K.Nixon) [33-E.Williams].

Week 4

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