Bengals earned a road win in Atlanta from the first deep ball to the last punt

The verdict

Played like that, the Bengals win 97% of the time. The snaps said Cincinnati by 10.2 points, and the scoreboard said 34-17 at Atlanta. That is an earned win, with no asterisk and no escape hatch for the Falcons.

The margin on the board and the margin in the play-by-play told the same story. Road wins rarely come with that kind of agreement.

What the score hid

The score hid very little, but the efficiency numbers show how steady it was. Cincinnati averaged 0.35 expected points added per snap. EPA is the change in a team's scoring expectation from one play to the next, so a positive average means the offense kept improving its position. Atlanta averaged 0.09. The Bengals also had the better success rate, 54% to 47%.

Luck had a small say. The game's luck points ran 2.5 for Cincinnati and -1.8 for Atlanta, a modest tilt toward the winner. It does not change the grade, because the underlying snaps already pointed the same direction.

The swing play came early. In the first quarter, with 8:55 on the clock, J.Burrow threw deep right from the shotgun to J.Chase for 47 yards and a touchdown. It added 13% to Cincinnati's win probability, the biggest single jump of the afternoon. Cincy's passing tree starts with that route, and Atlanta never found an answer for it.

The calls

The Bengals faced one graded fourth down. In the third quarter, at 13:34, they had fourth-and-8 from 78 yards out and a win probability of 86%. They punted. The model also said punt, rated it a lean, and charged zero expected points for the choice. Head coach Zac Taylor gets a clean grade for a call that was easy.

The flags leaned against Cincinnati at the biggest moments. Defensive pass interference in the third quarter at 7:08 cost 16 yards and 6% of win probability. A defensive offside call in the first quarter at 7:18 moved the ball 5 yards and took 5%. Atlanta gave some back: offensive holding in the fourth quarter at 12:13 and again in the second quarter at 2:47, each for 10 yards and 4% in Cincinnati's favor. Both teams were flagged for real damage, and the Bengals still came out ahead.

The trend

Cincinnati is 6-2, and the snaps say it should be 6-2. Deserved wins: 6. Wins that luck supplied: 0, which ranks 16th of 32 teams, the middle of the league. The Bengals are 3-2 in one-score games, and they have been robbed of one game.

The season luck sheet nets out flat. Fumble recovery luck is 0.2 points, opponent kicking luck is -1.1, and total luck is 0. The net EPA per snap of 0.126 ranks sixth in the league. This team is good on merit.

The weak spot is aggression. Taylor's Chicken Index is 75%, fourth most timid of 32 teams. Across 25 graded fourth downs, the model recommended going on 8 and the Bengals went on 2. That has cost 4.8 expected points, with 3 clear misses. The Bengals have also been flagged 55 times for 437 yards, and the net flag effect on win probability is 22%. Those are the two numbers most likely to move if Cincinnati changes anything.

Next up is the Pittsburgh Steelers at home on Sunday, Nov 15, at 8:20 PM ET on NBC, in Week 10. It will be the next test of whether fourth-down habits change.