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Jaguars DeskThe Verdict

Jaguars beat Ravens 33-10 and the snaps say it was no accident

Jacksonville out-gained Baltimore on every per-snap measure, and the luck points say the 33-10 final was not inflated.

The VerdictEarnedDeserved >99% · Week 9
By Jaguars Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 10, 2:10 PM ET2 min read

The verdict

Played like that, the Jaguars win more than 99% of the time. The snaps gave them a deserved margin of 19 points over the Baltimore Ravens, and the 33-10 final in Week 9 matches it. This one was earned.

The cleanest sign is how little the game leaned on chance. Jacksonville's luck points for the day were -6.7, and Baltimore's were 4.3. The Ravens got the better of the bounces and still lost by a wide margin.

What the score hid

The score did not hide much, and what it did hide ran in Baltimore's favor. Jacksonville averaged 0.11 EPA per snap. EPA is expected points added, a measure of how much each play moves the scoreboard compared with what an average team would expect from that spot. Baltimore averaged -0.37, so every Ravens snap cost them points on average.

Success rate tells the same story. The Jaguars had 46% of their plays count as successful, against 32% for the Ravens. A 46% rate is solid rather than dominant, which fits an offense at 0.11 EPA per snap. The defense did the heavier lifting.

The swing play came early. In the first quarter at 14:17, T.Lawrence threw deep right to N.Boerkircher for 52 yards to the BAL 21, with M.Humphrey in coverage. That one throw added 14 percentage points of win probability for Jacksonville, the biggest single move of the game.

The calls

Head coach Liam Coen made two graded fourth-down decisions, and the model agreed with both. In the first quarter at 2:04, Jacksonville faced fourth-and-7 from 18 yards out and kicked the field goal. The model also picked the kick, a clear call, and it worked. In the second quarter at 6:39, the Jaguars punted on fourth-and-7 from 76 yards out, a lean call the model backed. Neither cost any expected points.

The flags split in an interesting way. A neutral zone infraction on Baltimore in the first quarter at 4:25 moved win probability 10 points toward Jacksonville, the heaviest flag of the day. Jacksonville's defensive pass interference in the second quarter at 3:07 gave 9 yards and swung 7 points the other way. Two false starts, one on each side, were worth 2 points apiece.

The trend

Jacksonville is 6-2 with 6.3 deserved wins, so the record is almost exactly what the snaps support. Luck wins stand at -0.3, which ranks 21st of 32 with the luckiest first. The Jaguars are 2-2 in one-score games, have no games robbed and none won while lucky.

The season luck sheet runs negative at -4.8 total points. Fumble recoveries account for -0.9 and opponent kicking for -0.6. Penalties are a steady drag: 58 flags for 479 yards, a net flag swing of -60 percentage points of win probability. Net EPA per snap is 0.278, which ranks first in the league.

The weak spot is still aggression. Coen's Chicken Index is 100%: the model recommended going for it on fourth down 4 times, and Jacksonville went 0 times. Across 26 graded fourth downs, the conservative calls have cost 5.2 expected points, including 1 clear miss. This week gave no new evidence either way.

The next test is Sunday, Nov 15 at 1:00 PM ET, when the Jaguars visit the Tennessee Titans in Week 10 on Fox.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.