Jayden Daniels Carries a Positive EPA Into a Giants Defense Ranked 11th

The matchup in numbers

Jayden Daniels has produced 0.07 expected points added per play on 219 dropbacks and runs, with a 46 percent success rate and 1,154 yards. EPA is the number of points a play adds compared with what a typical team would get from that down, distance and field position. The Commanders' offense as a whole sits at minus 0.029 per play, 20th in the league, so Daniels is the reason the unit is not lower. His completion percentage is 4.9 points above what the throws were expected to yield.

The Giants' passer, Jameis Winston, is at minus 0.05 EPA per play with a completion percentage 6.1 points below expectation. New York's defense is the stronger unit, 11th with minus 0.03 EPA allowed per play and a 41 percent success rate allowed. Washington's defense is 20th, allowing 0.024 per play and a 46 percent success rate.

The Giants lead the division at 5-2-1. The Commanders are third at 2-5-1 after a 27-27 tie with New York in Week 5.

Where they can win it

The receivers give Daniels real material. Terry McLaurin is at 0.5 EPA per play on 28 targets, the best mark on the roster, though he holds only 11 percent of the target share. Stefon Diggs leads the room with a 20 percent share, 303 yards and 0.21 per play. Antonio Williams matches that 0.21 and has 284 yards.

New York's pass defense ranks 13th, which leaves room for a quarterback who is already above average by the numbers. The Giants will also be without Cam Skattebo, who has 98 of the team's rushing plays and is out with a hamstring injury. Devin Singletary, the next back, is at minus 0.29 EPA per play with a 23 percent success rate on 39 carries.

Washington beat the Eagles 27-10 in Week 8. New York beat the same Eagles 19-11 in Week 9.

The worry

The ground game has not helped Daniels. Washington's rush offense ranks 23rd. Jacory Croskey-Merritt has 239 yards on 67 plays at minus 0.1 EPA per play and a 36 percent success rate. Rachaad White has 228 yards on 54 plays at minus 0.05 and 39 percent.

The defense ranks 23rd against the run and 19th against the pass. Daron Payne and Javon Kinlaw are both on injured reserve, and fellow tackle Shy Tuttle is questionable.

The Commanders are 0-3 on the road and have been outscored 202-172 overall. Their last game was a 20-13 loss to the Rams in Week 9, and Thursday is another road game.

Availability

Washington lists guard Lucas Patrick as doubtful with a concussion. He is a starter. Tuttle (shoulder) and tight end Chig Okonkwo (hip) are questionable and both start. Okonkwo has 238 yards, a 12 percent target share and 0.00 EPA per play. Tight end Colson Yankoff (knee) and receiver Treylon Burks (foot) are also questionable. Jeremy McNichols and Dyami Brown are on injured reserve along with Payne and Kinlaw.

New York has Skattebo out. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy is questionable with a hip injury, and Winston leads the Giants in passing plays. Linebacker Abdul Carter (knee) and receiver Charlie Jones (thumb) are questionable starters. Receiver Darnell Mooney (chest) and linebacker Malik Harrison (groin) are questionable as well.

The final designations come before the 8:15 PM ET kickoff on Prime Video, and Patrick's status decides the shape of Washington's line.

New York is a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 41.5, which is context for the matchup and not a pick.