The LabEvery game, drawn from every snap

Week 5 · 2026Colts 22 · 34 Steelers

143 plays, one strand. Steelers won after 1 lead change; Colts peaked at 55% to win, Steelers at 100%. The white spine is the win probability, every rung a snap: up for PIT, down for IND, as long as the yards it gained.

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Bottom line1 lead change; Colts peaked at 55% to win, Steelers at 100%.

How to read this chart

Read it left to right:: kickoff on the left, final whistle on the right.
The white line: is the chance that Steelers win, play by play. High = PIT in control, low = IND in control, the middle is a coin flip. Each crossing of the middle is a change in who was more likely to win.
Each little bar is one play:: up for PIT on offense, down for IND; the longer the bar, the more yards. The key under the picture explains the marks (touchdown, turnover, field goal, punt).

Steelers ↑

Colts ↓

win probabilityhome snapaway snaptouchdownturnoverfield goalpuntincomplete

Head to head

The strands compared

How to read this chart

Each row compares the two teams: on one stat: IND on the left, PIT on the right. The longer bar is the bigger number.
Explosive plays: are long gains (big runs and passes). Peak win prob. is the highest chance to win each team reached at any moment.

INDPIT

69Plays52

332Yards354

6Explosive plays4

1Offensive TDs4

0Turnovers0

55%Peak win prob.100%

Drive by drive

Every possession

How to read this chart

Each tile is one possession,: in game order, colored by the team that had the ball.
Inside:: the team, how it ended (TD = touchdown, FG = field goal, INT = interception, FUM = fumble, otherwise punt or downs) and the yards gained. Brighter tiles are drives that scored.

PITPunt-5yINDFG22yPITTD80yINDFG5yPITTD68yINDTD76yPITPunt5yINDPunt39yPITFG58yIND–5yINDFG51yPITTD70yINDFG45yPITPunt-10yINDFG51yPITTD64yIND–14yPITFG13yIND–24yPIT–11y

Key moments

The plays that moved it most

Largest swings in expected points

Bottom lineThe biggest swing: play 1, 2.6 expected points for Colts.

How to read this chart

The strip is the game clock;: each numbered dot is one of the plays below, placed when it happened and colored by the team on offense.
EP (expected points): is how many points the play added to (+) or took away from (−) the offense's expected score. +3.5 EP is worth more than a field goal; big minus numbers are usually turnovers.

12345678

1
Q1 9:02 · IND · Field goal
3-S.Shrader 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
+2.6 EP
2
Q1 8:57 · PIT · Touchdown
8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 30-J.Warren for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-G.Stewart].
+5.7 EP
3
Q2 13:12 · IND · Completion
17-D.Jones pass deep right to 2-J.Downs to PIT 34 for 42 yards (3-J.Brisker).
+3.1 EP
4
Q2 10:21 · IND · Completion
17-D.Jones pass short right to 13-L.Treadwell to PIT 2 for 22 yards (22-A.Samuel; 5-J.Ramsey).
+2.6 EP
5
Q2 7:48 · IND · Touchdown
84-T.Warren up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
+2.8 EP
6
Q3 12:08 · IND · Completion
17-D.Jones pass deep left to 84-T.Warren pushed ob at PIT 3 for 29 yards (23-D.Everette).
+2.7 EP
7
Q3 7:16 · PIT · Touchdown
30-J.Warren left guard for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
+4.0 EP
8
Q4 6:40 · PIT · Touchdown
8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 88-P.Freiermuth for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
+3.3 EP

Sliding Doors

The one play that could have changed it

All sliding doors →

How to read this chart

The line is win probability: over the game (top = home team ahead). The dot marks the one play that could have gone either way; the big % is the losing team's chance right after it.
Press Flip it: to see where that chance would have gone if the play had gone the other way. Only that instant is priced: the rest of the game never happened.

22@34

Week 5

If the Colts had stopped that fourth-and-1

Colts after the play16%what really happened

Q4 7:56 30-J.Warren left guard to IND 21 for 1 yard (99-D.Buckner).

Week 5

The rest of the week

Every week →

24@16

17@19

31@24

23@17

45@21

32@29

30@23

37@34