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Jaguars DeskBy the Numbers

Jaguars defense covers for an offense that slipped to 0.05 EPA a play

Jacksonville is 6-2 and leads the AFC South, but its offense has swung from week to week while the defense has tightened.

By the NumbersDefense+0.05Offense EPA/play · Week 9
By Jaguars Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 11, 1:10 PM ET2 min read

0.05: the offense fell to its second-lowest EPA of the season in Week 9

The Jaguars offense produced 0.05 EPA per play in Week 9. EPA, or expected points added, measures how much each play moves a team's scoring outlook. The season mark is 0.148, second in the league, but only the Week 2 game at -0.048 was lower than Sunday's.

The success rate tells the same story. It was 45% in Week 9, against 60% in Week 1 and 52% in Week 6. Jacksonville has not strung together two high-efficiency games since the opener and Week 3.

The passing numbers are not the cause. Over the last three weeks Trevor Lawrence has 0.33 EPA per play and a 56% success rate on 45 plays, with 417 yards. His season line is 0.28 EPA per play and 51% success. The dip is coming from somewhere else in the play mix.

40%: the early-down pass rate has dropped from 63% in Week 6

Jacksonville threw on 63% of its early-down plays in Week 6. In Week 8 that fell to 39%, and in Week 9 it was 40%. That is a 23-point swing in three weeks.

The offense did not get more efficient for it. Success rate was 52% in Week 6 and 45% in each of the next two games played. The run game has not made up the difference: over the last three weeks Bhayshul Tuten has 0.06 EPA per play and a 39% success rate on 28 carries. Chris Rodriguez Jr. has -0.08 EPA per play and a 25% success rate on 16.

Jakobi Meyers (0.65 EPA per play, 67% success over the last three weeks) is the reliable target. Parker Washington has a 33% success rate over the same stretch, down from 45% for the season.

-0.346: the defense has allowed negative EPA in back-to-back games

For a defense, lower is better. Jacksonville allowed -0.485 EPA per play in Week 8 and -0.346 in Week 9. In Week 6 it allowed 0.225, and in Week 4 it allowed 0.046. The season figure is -0.128, third in the league, and the unit also ranks third against both the pass and the run.

The secondary snaps have moved. Eric Murray played 98% of snaps in Week 6 and 0% in Week 8. Rayuan Lane went from 0% in Week 6 to 52% in Week 9, and Antonio Johnson from 40% to 82%. Jarrian Jones dropped from 98% to 55%. Those are the largest swings on the roster, and they line up with the best two defensive games of the year.

6-2: the standings give the offense room to sort itself out

The Jaguars lead the AFC South at 6-2, with the Texans at 3-5, the Colts at 2-7 and the Titans at 1-7. Jacksonville has scored 229 points and allowed 121, a differential of 108. It holds the third seed in the AFC and has won two straight.

Next up is the Tennessee Titans on Sunday, Nov. 15, at 1:00 PM ET on Fox. It is a road game, and Jacksonville is 2-1 away from home this season. Two things to track: whether the offense returns toward its 0.148 season EPA per play, and whether the early-down pass rate comes back above the 39% and 40% of the last two games.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.