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Seahawks DeskBy the Numbers

Seahawks defense ranks fifth in EPA allowed while the offense sits 23rd

Seattle is 5-4 with a plus-40 point differential, carried by a top-five defense and one receiver who produces on nearly every target.

By the NumbersDefense+0.07Offense EPA/play · Week 9
By Seahawks Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 11, 1:20 PM ET2 min read

-0.096: the defense is fifth in the league in EPA allowed per play

EPA, expected points added, measures how much each play moves the scoreboard compared with an average play from that spot. A negative number allowed is good for a defense, and Seattle's season mark of -0.096 ranks fifth. Opponents succeed on 39% of their plays.

The pass defense is the stronger unit at fourth, with the run defense tenth. Seattle has allowed 162 points, 40 fewer than it has scored.

Week 8 was the exception. The defense allowed 0.175 EPA per play, its only positive week of the year. A week later it allowed -0.188, the second-best game of the season behind the -0.325 of Week 2. That 0.363 swing in seven days is the number to carry into Las Vegas.

0.63: Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the offense

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has 99 targets for 1,036 yards, a 64% success rate and 0.63 EPA per target. He takes 35% of the targets. Over the last three weeks the share rose to 37%, with 319 yards and 0.5 EPA per target.

The rest of the board is thinner. Cooper Kupp is at 0.3 EPA per target on 34 targets. AJ Barner is at -0.37 on 38 and Rashid Shaheed is at -0.45 on 31, with a 23% success rate.

The passing game ranks 15th overall and the offense as a whole is 23rd at -0.04 EPA per play. Sam Darnold sits at -0.03 per play on the season and 0.13 over the last three weeks. Tory Horton has shown up with 0.3 EPA per target on 11 targets in that stretch.

27th: the run game is not creating the easy yards

Seattle ranks 27th in rushing offense. Emanuel Wilson has 403 yards on 111 plays at -0.15 EPA per play and a 36% success rate. Jadarian Price is at -0.37 and 26% on 47 plays.

The last three weeks look better, if only by comparison. Wilson is at 0.01 EPA per play and Zach Charbonnet at -0.06, each with 100 yards.

The play-calling has swung with the results. In Week 7 Seattle passed on 35% of early downs and posted 0.156 EPA per play. In Week 8 that rate was 63% and the offense fell to -0.163. Week 9 landed in between at 44% and 0.075.

58%: Rylie Mills and Josh Jones changed the lineup

The snap counts moved fast. Rylie Mills went from 20% of defensive snaps in Week 6 to 58% in Week 9. Josh Jones went from no snaps at guard to all of them over the same stretch, while Christian Haynes dropped from 69% in Week 6 to none in Week 7.

Tyrice Knight went from 85% of the snaps at linebacker to none.

What to watch

Seattle is 5-4 and second in the NFC West behind San Francisco at 7-1, level with the Rams at 5-4. The Seahawks are 1-2 on the road and play at the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday, Nov. 15 at 4:05 PM ET on CBS. The measures to follow are the defense's EPA per play and how often the offense throws on early downs.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.