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Vikings DeskBy the Numbers

Vikings pass more on early downs each week, and the offense keeps sliding

Minnesota threw on 66 percent of early downs in Week 9, up from 41 in Week 1, while its EPA per play fell to -0.752.

Air attackBy the Numbers-0.75Offense EPA/play · Week 9
By Vikings Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 11, 2:00 PM ET3 min read

66%: the early-down pass rate is up 25 points since Week 1

The Vikings passed on 66 percent of their early downs in Week 9, up from 41 percent in Week 1. The climb has been steady lately: 46 percent in Week 7, 58 in Week 8, then 66.

The results went the other way. Minnesota's offense produced -0.752 EPA per play in Week 9, the worst number of its season. EPA, or expected points added, measures how much each snap changes a team's scoring outlook, so a negative figure means the average play left the drive worse off. The success rate was 27 percent, down from 46 percent in Week 8. For the season the offense sits at -0.162 EPA per play, 31st in the league.

33%: Justin Jefferson's target share is up, and his efficiency is down

Over the last three weeks Justin Jefferson has taken 33 percent of the targets, against 24 percent for the season. His EPA per play on those 27 targets is -0.43, compared with 0.19 over the full year. He has 135 yards in the three-week stretch and 393 for the season.

T.J. Hockenson has been the steadier option. He is at 0.40 EPA per play and a 57 percent success rate on 44 targets this season. Over the last three weeks he has 17 targets, a 20 percent share, 126 yards and 0.03 EPA per play. Jordan Addison has 15 targets in that span at a 53 percent success rate, but his EPA per play is -0.28.

30th: the run game has not given the passing game a floor

Minnesota ranks 30th in rushing offense. Aaron Jones Sr. has 474 yards on 115 plays, with -0.2 EPA per play and a 35 percent success rate. In the last three weeks he is at -0.5 EPA per play on 18 plays.

Jordan Mason has taken more of the recent work, with 29 plays and 123 yards in that stretch. His EPA per play is -0.2 and his success rate is 31 percent, which is not far from the 27 percent he has posted on the season. When first and second down runs stall, the offense reaches third down needing more yards, and the 66 percent pass rate on early downs suggests the staff has noticed.

60%: Myles Price has gone from 3 percent of snaps to a starter's share

Myles Price played 3 percent of the offensive snaps in Week 7 and 60 percent in Week 9, a 57-point jump and the largest snap-share change on the roster. Ben Yurosek moved the opposite direction at tight end, from 51 percent to 21 percent over the same two weeks.

Kyler Murray's passing numbers are close to flat across the two samples. He is at -0.04 EPA per play for the season and 0.03 over the last three weeks. His completion rate over expectation has dropped from 2 for the season to -4.5 in that span. Jauan Jennings has just 5 targets in the last three weeks, but they have produced 0.58 EPA per play and a 60 percent success rate.

What to watch Sunday

The Vikings are 6-2 and have lost two straight, which leaves them third in the NFC North behind the Bears at 7-2 and the Lions at 6-2. The Packers, at 6-3, are right behind them. Minnesota plays at Green Bay on Sunday, Nov. 15, at 1:00 PM ET on Fox. The Vikings defense ranks first against the pass and allowed -0.045 EPA per play in Week 9, so the open question is whether the offense gets anything out of a pass-heavy early-down plan on the road.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.