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Ravens DeskBy the Numbers

Derrick Henry's carries have gone negative as the Ravens' offense stalls

Baltimore's run game, its early-down play-calling and its quarterback change all point to a 4-5 team that has lost four straight.

Derrick HenryBy the Numbers-0.35Offense EPA/play · Week 9RBDerrick Henry
By Ravens Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 11, 1:20 PM ET2 min read

-0.14: Derrick Henry's carries are costing the offense points

Over the last three weeks, Derrick Henry has 45 rushes for 155 yards and a success rate of 31%. His EPA per rush is -0.14. EPA, or expected points added, measures how much a play changes the offense's scoring expectation, so a negative number means the drive was worse off after the snap.

His season line is -0.11 EPA on 176 rushes and 691 yards, with a 39% success rate. Baltimore ranks 16th in rush offense, so the recent slide has pulled down a line that was already below zero. The Los Angeles Chargers come to town Monday, and Henry's first-down success rate is the number to track.

0.17: Justice Hill is the more efficient runner

Justice Hill has 33 rushes this season for 240 yards and 0.17 EPA per rush. That is 0.28 better than Henry. In the last three weeks he has 15 rushes for 107 yards at 0.12 EPA.

His success rate is 33% for the season and 27% over the last three weeks. He gains yards in bursts rather than steadily. As a receiver he has been a drag: -0.32 EPA on 28 targets for the season, and -0.44 on 15 targets since Week 7, a 20% target share. His rushes have helped the offense and his targets have not.

32%: the early-down pass rate dropped 21 points in Week 9

Baltimore threw on 32% of its early downs in Week 9, down from 53% in Week 8. The season high was 63% in Week 2. Running more did not help. The offense posted -0.346 EPA per play with a 31% success rate, after -0.497 and 33% the week before.

The offense is 18th in EPA per play at -0.015 for the season. Joe Fagnano took 100% of the snaps in Week 9, up from 40% in Week 8. Tyler Huntley went from 100% in Week 6 to 20% in Week 8. Fagnano has 45 plays at -0.56 EPA with a 31% success rate and a CPOE of -12, meaning his completion rate is 12 points below what the throws should produce. Huntley's season mark is -0.03 EPA and a 46% success rate. Guard Andrew Vorhees played 88% of the snaps in Week 8 and 0% in Week 9.

-0.64: Zay Flowers has fallen from the top of the receiver board

Zay Flowers has 614 yards and 0.19 EPA per target on 64 targets this season, a 27% share. Over the last three weeks he has 22 targets for 143 yards at -0.64 EPA, a 29% share. That is a swing of 0.83 in EPA per target.

Rashod Bateman has 0.53 EPA per target and a 61% success rate on 31 targets for the season, but only a 13% share. Mark Andrews posted 0.24 EPA with a 60% success rate on 10 targets over the last three weeks, an 18% share for the season. The targets are going to Flowers, and the production is not.

The Ravens are 4-5 and on a four-game losing streak. They sit fourth in the AFC North behind the Bengals and Steelers, both 6-2. Monday, Nov. 16, brings the Chargers to Baltimore at 8:15 PM ET on ESPN. The Ravens are 1-3 at home this season.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.