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Chiefs DeskBy the Numbers

Chiefs fix their early-down mix and the offense follows in Week 9

Kansas City cut its early-down pass rate from 62% to 52% in Week 9, and the offense and a reshuffled secondary both graded better.

OffenseBy the Numbers+0.17Offense EPA/play · Week 9
By Chiefs Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 11, 2:00 PM ET2 min read

52%: the early-down pass rate came back down

The Chiefs threw on 64% of early downs in Week 7 and 62% in Week 8. In Week 9 that fell to 52%. The offense posted 0.166 EPA per play (expected points added, a measure of how much each snap changes the scoring outlook) and a 56% success rate.

The Week 7 game is the comparison. At a 64% early-down pass rate, Kansas City managed minus-0.105 EPA per play and a 36% success rate. Season-long, the offense sits at 0.131 EPA per play, fifth in the league, with the rush offense ranked second and the pass offense eighth.

That ranking is the case for the run-heavier script. The Chiefs are better on the ground than through the air by rank, and the 52% game was their most efficient of the three.

98%: Kristian Fulton is now an every-down corner

Kristian Fulton played 25% of the defensive snaps in Week 6. In Week 9 he played 98%. Christian Roland-Wallace went from 29% to 71% over the same stretch, the two biggest snap-share gains on the roster.

The results arrived with the change. The defense allowed minus-0.302 EPA per play in Week 9, its best mark since the minus-0.311 of Week 6. Across the season it allows minus-0.067, ninth in the league, with the pass defense ranked 10th and the run defense sixth.

Two games do not make a trend, and Week 7 (0.156 allowed) and Week 8 (0.112) came in between. Still, the secondary that closes games now looks different from the one that opened the year.

0.02: Kenneth Walker III has slowed as a runner

The Chiefs' rushing rank is high, but the last three weeks are softer than the season. Kenneth Walker III has 872 yards and 0.08 EPA per carry on the year, with a 47% success rate. Over the last three weeks he has 207 yards on 53 plays at 0.02 EPA and 43% success.

Emmett Johnson has been sharper in a small sample: 0.6 EPA per play and a 57% success rate on 7 plays, for 49 yards. Walker is still productive as a receiver, at 0.36 EPA per target over the last three weeks on 14 targets.

0.54: Travis Kelce is still the efficient target

Travis Kelce has 0.54 EPA per target this season, with a 60% success rate and 482 yards. Xavier Worthy has the same 19% target share and produces 0.01 EPA per target, 278 yards.

Kelce has cooled to 0.30 EPA over the last three weeks, still the best number among the main pass catchers. Rashee Rice is at 0.16 over that span, Worthy at 0.03. Patrick Mahomes has 0.12 EPA per play over those three weeks, down from 0.16 for the season.

What to watch next

Kansas City is 6-2 and holds the fifth seed, a game behind the 7-2 Broncos in the AFC West. The Chiefs are 4-0 at home and 2-2 on the road, and they play at the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday, Nov. 15, at 1:00 PM ET on CBS. The early-down pass rate will show whether the Week 9 script carries over.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.