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132 plays, one strand. Chiefs won without the lead ever changing hands; Chiefs peaked at 100% to win, Dolphins at 56%. The white spine is the win probability, every rung a snap: up for MIA, down for KC, as long as the yards it gained.
↳Bottom lineThe lead never changed hands; Chiefs peaked at 100% to win, Dolphins at 56%.
?How to read this chart
- Read it left to right:
- kickoff on the left, final whistle on the right.
- The white line
- is the chance that Dolphins win, play by play. High = MIA in control, low = KC in control, the middle is a coin flip. Each crossing of the middle is a change in who was more likely to win.
- Each little bar is one play:
- up for MIA on offense, down for KC; the longer the bar, the more yards. The key under the picture explains the marks (touchdown, turnover, field goal, punt).
Dolphins ↑
Chiefs ↓The strands compared
?How to read this chart
- Each row compares the two teams
- on one stat: KC on the left, MIA on the right. The longer bar is the bigger number.
- Explosive plays
- are long gains (big runs and passes). Peak win prob. is the highest chance to win each team reached at any moment.
Every possession
?How to read this chart
- Each tile is one possession,
- in game order, colored by the team that had the ball.
- Inside:
- the team, how it ended (TD = touchdown, FG = field goal, INT = interception, FUM = fumble, otherwise punt or downs) and the yards gained. Brighter tiles are drives that scored.
The plays that moved it most
↳Bottom lineThe biggest swing: play 1, 3.4 expected points for Chiefs.
?How to read this chart
- The strip is the game clock;
- each numbered dot is one of the plays below, placed when it happened and colored by the team on offense.
- EP (expected points)
- is how many points the play added to (+) or took away from (−) the offense's expected score. +3.5 EP is worth more than a field goal; big minus numbers are usually turnovers.
- 1Q1 14:55 · KC · Completion+3.4 EP
15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 87-T.Kelce to MIA 19 for 48 yards (11-D.Trader).
- 2Q1 7:09 · MIA · Run+3.0 EP
2-M.Willis scrambles left guard to KC 32 for 10 yards (17-A.Gilman). PENALTY on KC-20-N.Williams, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at
- 3Q2 6:15 · KC · Run−3.6 EP
64-H.Nourzad reported in as eligible. 9-K.Walker up the middle to MIA 12 for no gain (20-J.Brooks; 90-M.Herring).
- 4Q2 3:16 · MIA · Fumble lost−3.8 EP
2-M.Willis up the middle to KC 28 for 3 yards (23-D.Tranquill). Kansas City challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play w
- 5Q2 2:00 · KC · Interception−3.6 EP
15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle intended for 4-R.Rice INTERCEPTED by 10-J.Rodriguez (11-D.Trader) at MIA 29. 10-J.Rodriguez to MIA 47 for 18 y
- 6Q3 14:15 · MIA · Completion+3.3 EP
2-M.Willis pass deep middle to 85-G.Dulcich to KC 30 for 42 yards (20-N.Williams).
- 7Q4 3:01 · KC · Touchdown+3.1 EP
15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [9-J.Uche].
- 8Q4 2:03 · MIA · Interception−3.3 EP
2-M.Willis pass short right intended for 84-R.Miller INTERCEPTED by 56-G.Karlaftis (95-C.Jones) at MIA 36. 56-G.Karlaftis to MIA 36 for no g
The one play that could have changed it
?How to read this chart
- The line is win probability
- over the game (top = home team ahead). The dot marks the one play that could have gone either way; the big % is the losing team's chance right after it.
- Press Flip it
- to see where that chance would have gone if the play had gone the other way. Only that instant is priced: the rest of the game never happened.
If the 34-yard kick had missed
Q4 11:38 7-H.Butker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
18@21
24@31
31@33
7@12
30@36
34@31
26@30
7@27
