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Giants DeskBy the Numbers

Giants offense sits at 0.003 EPA per play with two quarterbacks on the ledger

Jameis Winston's season line and J.J. McCarthy's last three weeks point the same way into a Thursday night home game against Washington.

J.J. McCarthyBy the Numbers-0.07Offense EPA/play · Week 9QBJ.J. McCarthy
By Giants Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 11, 11:10 AM ET2 min read

-0.05: Jameis Winston's season EPA per play is below zero

Jameis Winston has 189 plays this season for 954 yards and an EPA per play of -0.05. EPA, expected points added, measures how much each snap moves the scoreboard compared with an average snap from the same spot. His completion percentage over expected is -6.1, and 41% of his plays are successful.

That matches the team. The Giants offense is at 0.003 EPA per play, 15th in the league, with a 41% success rate. The passing offense ranks 16th and the rushing offense 19th.

0.09: J.J. McCarthy has been better per play, and less steady

Over the last three weeks, J.J. McCarthy has 56 plays for 330 yards, a 0.09 EPA per play and a completion percentage over expected of 5.1. That is 0.14 better per play than Winston's season mark, and an 11.2-point swing in completion percentage over expected.

The success rate says otherwise. McCarthy's is 30%, 11 points under Winston's season figure. The yards and the occasional big play are producing the EPA, not a steady diet of first downs.

30%: week 9 was the Giants' lowest success rate since week 2

The offense finished week 9 with a 30% success rate and -0.071 EPA per play. Only week 2 (27%) and week 4 (32%) were in the same neighborhood, and the Giants were at 60% in week 1.

The defense covered for it. It allowed -0.287 EPA per play in week 9, lower than in any other week this season. The season mark is -0.03, 11th in the league, with a 41% success rate allowed.

The early-down pass rate has settled after a spike. It was 70% in week 5 and 74% in week 6, then 44% in week 7 and 49% in week 9. The offense posted 0.244 EPA per play in week 7, its best week since the opener.

1.17: Malachi Fields is the efficient target of the last three weeks

Malachi Fields has 10 targets over the last three weeks, 19% of the team's share, up from 13% on the season. He has produced 123 yards and 1.17 EPA per play with a 60% success rate. Darnell Mooney is at 0.64 EPA per play on seven plays.

Malik Nabers still leads in volume at a 31% share, with 154 yards and 0.32 EPA per play. Isaiah Likely, at 0.36 on 10 plays, has a 40% success rate, down from 53% on the season.

The backfield tells a different story. Devin Singletary played 93% of snaps in week 9, up from 40% in week 6. Over the last three weeks he has 26 plays at -0.32 EPA per play and a 23% success rate. Cam Skattebo has 17 plays at 0.20 and 41%.

What to watch Thursday

The Giants are 5-2-1 and lead the division, a game and a half ahead of Dallas at 4-5. Washington, 2-5-1, comes to East Rutherford for a Thursday night game on Prime Video, with kickoff at 8:15 PM ET. The numbers to track are the Giants' success rate against a 41% season mark, and whether the early-down pass rate stays near 49%.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.