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The LabEvery game, drawn from every snap

Week 3 · 2026Texans 17 · 19 Colts

139 plays, one strand. Colts won after 2 lead changes; Texans peaked at 50% to win, Colts at 92%. The white spine is the win probability, every rung a snap: up for IND, down for HOU, as long as the yards it gained.

Game pageDownload poster (SVG)All games

Bottom line2 lead changes; Texans peaked at 50% to win, Colts at 92%.

How to read this chart
Read it left to right:
kickoff on the left, final whistle on the right.
The white line
is the chance that Colts win, play by play. High = IND in control, low = HOU in control, the middle is a coin flip. Each crossing of the middle is a change in who was more likely to win.
Each little bar is one play:
up for IND on offense, down for HOU; the longer the bar, the more yards. The key under the picture explains the marks (touchdown, turnover, field goal, punt).
Colts ↑Texans ↓
Q2Q3Q4Q1FUMTDTDINTFUMTDIND ↑ HOMEHOU ↓ AWAY
win probabilityhome snapaway snaptouchdownturnoverfield goalpuntincomplete
Head to head

The strands compared

How to read this chart
Each row compares the two teams
on one stat: HOU on the left, IND on the right. The longer bar is the bigger number.
Explosive plays
are long gains (big runs and passes). Peak win prob. is the highest chance to win each team reached at any moment.
HOUIND
51Plays71
223Yards300
2Explosive plays4
2Offensive TDs1
0Turnovers3
50%Peak win prob.92%
Drive by drive

Every possession

How to read this chart
Each tile is one possession,
in game order, colored by the team that had the ball.
Inside:
the team, how it ended (TD = touchdown, FG = field goal, INT = interception, FUM = fumble, otherwise punt or downs) and the yards gained. Brighter tiles are drives that scored.
HOUPunt-1yINDFUM8yHOU–9yINDFG53yHOUPunt4yINDTD69yHOUTD52yINDFG25yHOUPunt3yIND–4yINDINT45yHOUPunt8yINDPunt-3yHOUPunt6yINDFG51yHOUFG71yINDFUM19yHOUTD54yINDFG29yHOU–17y
Key moments

The plays that moved it most

Largest swings in expected points

Bottom lineThe biggest swing: play 1, 6.3 expected points against Colts.

How to read this chart
The strip is the game clock;
each numbered dot is one of the plays below, placed when it happened and colored by the team on offense.
EP (expected points)
is how many points the play added to (+) or took away from (−) the offense's expected score. +3.5 EP is worth more than a field goal; big minus numbers are usually turnovers.
12345678
  1. 1
    Q1 11:28 · IND · Fumble lost

    17-D.Jones sacked at IND 39 for -8 yards (51-W.Anderson). FUMBLES (51-W.Anderson), touched at IND 44, RECOVERED by HOU-51-W.Anderson at IND

    −6.3 EP
  2. 2
    Q1 9:47 · HOU · Run

    57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 32-D.Montgomery right tackle to IND 31 for no gain (0-C.Bynum; 99-D.Buckner).

    −4.2 EP
  3. 3
    Q1 7:37 · IND · Completion

    17-D.Jones pass short right to 2-J.Downs to HOU 28 for 24 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair) [98-S.Rankins].

    +3.0 EP
  4. 4
    Q2 11:13 · IND · Touchdown

    17-D.Jones pass short right to 10-K.Allen for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    +2.8 EP
  5. 5
    Q3 14:03 · IND · Completion

    17-D.Jones pass deep right to 10-K.Allen to HOU 34 for 26 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair; 2-C.Bullock).

    +2.9 EP
  6. 6
    Q3 11:40 · IND · Interception

    17-D.Jones pass deep left intended for 2-J.Downs INTERCEPTED by 6-R.Blankenship [55-D.Hunter] at HOU 1. 6-R.Blankenship ran ob at HOU 1 for

    −2.8 EP
  7. 7
    Q3 8:34 · IND · Sack

    17-D.Jones sacked at IND 25 for -9 yards (sack split by 55-D.Hunter and 51-W.Anderson).

    −2.6 EP
  8. 8
    Q4 4:45 · IND · Fumble lost

    17-D.Jones sacked at HOU 45 for -6 yards (51-W.Anderson). FUMBLES (51-W.Anderson) [51-W.Anderson], RECOVERED by HOU-72-T.Togiai at HOU 46. F

    −5.5 EP
Sliding Doors

The one play that could have changed it

All sliding doors →
How to read this chart
The line is win probability
over the game (top = home team ahead). The dot marks the one play that could have gone either way; the big % is the losing team's chance right after it.
Press Flip it
to see where that chance would have gone if the play had gone the other way. Only that instant is priced: the rest of the game never happened.
17@19Week 3Changes the winner

If the 53-yard kick had missed

Texans after the play18%what really happened
ColtsTexansthe rest never happened

Q4 0:21 3-S.Shrader 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

Week 3

The rest of the week

Every week →
Falcons at Packers, Game DNA35@14Panthers at Browns, Game DNA18@21Bengals at Steelers, Game DNA27@30Chiefs at Dolphins, Game DNA24@10Chargers at Bills, Game DNA16@24Jets at Lions, Game DNA24@31Seahawks at Commanders, Game DNA31@33Titans at Giants, Game DNA7@12Patriots at Jaguars, Game DNA6@35Cardinals at 49ers, Game DNA30@36Vikings at Buccaneers, Game DNA23@16Ravens at Cowboys, Game DNA34@31Raiders at Saints, Game DNA35@27Rams at Broncos, Game DNA26@30Eagles at Bears, Game DNA7@27