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WSH ThuNYG NE SunDET BUF SunNYJ CAR SunNO HOU SunCLE JAX SunTEN KC SunATL MIA SunIND MIN SunGB LAR SunARI SEA SunLV SF SunDAL PIT SunCIN LAC MonBAL
The LabEvery game, drawn from every snap

Week 3 · 2026Seahawks 31 · 33 Commanders

154 plays, one strand. Commanders won without the lead ever changing hands; Seahawks peaked at 49% to win, Commanders at 97%. The white spine is the win probability, every rung a snap: up for WSH, down for SEA, as long as the yards it gained.

Game pageDownload poster (SVG)All games

Bottom lineThe lead never changed hands; Seahawks peaked at 49% to win, Commanders at 97%.

How to read this chart
Read it left to right:
kickoff on the left, final whistle on the right.
The white line
is the chance that Commanders win, play by play. High = WSH in control, low = SEA in control, the middle is a coin flip. Each crossing of the middle is a change in who was more likely to win.
Each little bar is one play:
up for WSH on offense, down for SEA; the longer the bar, the more yards. The key under the picture explains the marks (touchdown, turnover, field goal, punt).
Commanders ↑Seahawks ↓
Q2Q3Q4Q1FUMTDTDTDINTTDTDTDINTTDWSH ↑ HOMESEA ↓ AWAY
win probabilityhome snapaway snaptouchdownturnoverfield goalpuntincomplete
Head to head

The strands compared

How to read this chart
Each row compares the two teams
on one stat: SEA on the left, WSH on the right. The longer bar is the bigger number.
Explosive plays
are long gains (big runs and passes). Peak win prob. is the highest chance to win each team reached at any moment.
SEAWSH
64Plays63
437Yards260
4Explosive plays3
4Offensive TDs3
3Turnovers0
49%Peak win prob.97%
Drive by drive

Every possession

How to read this chart
Each tile is one possession,
in game order, colored by the team that had the ball.
Inside:
the team, how it ended (TD = touchdown, FG = field goal, INT = interception, FUM = fumble, otherwise punt or downs) and the yards gained. Brighter tiles are drives that scored.
SEAPunt16yWSHPunt6ySEAFUM1yWSHTD21ySEAPunt8yWSHPunt17ySEATD88yWSHPunt4ySEAPunt6yWSHTD60ySEA–78yWSHPunt0ySEAFG7yWSHFG26yWSHPunt8ySEAINT14yWSHTD43ySEATD55yWSHPunt5ySEAPunt1yWSHPunt11ySEATD69yWSHFG27ySEAINT26ySEATD68yWSH–32y
Key moments

The plays that moved it most

Largest swings in expected points

Bottom lineThe biggest swing: play 1, 5.3 expected points against Seahawks.

How to read this chart
The strip is the game clock;
each numbered dot is one of the plays below, placed when it happened and colored by the team on offense.
EP (expected points)
is how many points the play added to (+) or took away from (−) the offense's expected score. +3.5 EP is worth more than a field goal; big minus numbers are usually turnovers.
12345678
  1. 1
    Q1 11:06 · SEA · Fumble lost

    8-J.Price left end to SEA 22 for 2 yards (52-S.Styles, 2-A.Robertson). FUMBLES (2-A.Robertson), RECOVERED by WAS-97-T.Settle at SEA 21.

    −5.3 EP
  2. 2
    Q2 6:51 · WSH · Touchdown

    8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 13-T.Burks for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-L.Williams].

    +2.5 EP
  3. 3
    Q2 4:57 · SEA · Completion

    14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 10-C.Kupp to WAS 42 for 16 yards (0-M.Sainristil).

    +2.5 EP
  4. 4
    Q2 1:51 · SEA · Incomplete

    14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 88-A.Barner (39-J.Reaves) [56-K.Medrano].

    −3.1 EP
  5. 5
    Q2 0:57 · SEA · Field goal

    5-J.Myers 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    +2.3 EP
  6. 6
    Q3 12:10 · SEA · Interception

    14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 11-J.Smith-Njigba INTERCEPTED by 52-S.Styles (97-T.Settle) at SEA 42. 52-S.Styles to SEA 43 for -1

    −4.8 EP
  7. 7
    Q3 10:50 · WSH · Touchdown

    8-M.Mariota pass deep left to 17-T.McLaurin for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    +3.3 EP
  8. 8
    Q4 4:09 · SEA · Interception

    14-S.Darnold pass short middle intended for 88-A.Barner INTERCEPTED by 56-K.Medrano at 50. 56-K.Medrano for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on

    −8.7 EP
Sliding Doors

The one play that could have changed it

All sliding doors →
How to read this chart
The line is win probability
over the game (top = home team ahead). The dot marks the one play that could have gone either way; the big % is the losing team's chance right after it.
Press Flip it
to see where that chance would have gone if the play had gone the other way. Only that instant is priced: the rest of the game never happened.
31@33Week 3

If that interception had fallen incomplete

Seahawks after the play5%what really happened
CommandersSeahawksthe rest never happened

Q4 4:09 14-S.Darnold pass short middle intended for 88-A.Barner INTERCEPTED by 56-K.Medrano at 50. 56-K.Medrano for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on WAS, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

Week 3

The rest of the week

Every week →
Falcons at Packers, Game DNA35@14Panthers at Browns, Game DNA18@21Bengals at Steelers, Game DNA27@30Texans at Colts, Game DNA17@19Chiefs at Dolphins, Game DNA24@10Chargers at Bills, Game DNA16@24Jets at Lions, Game DNA24@31Titans at Giants, Game DNA7@12Patriots at Jaguars, Game DNA6@35Cardinals at 49ers, Game DNA30@36Vikings at Buccaneers, Game DNA23@16Ravens at Cowboys, Game DNA34@31Raiders at Saints, Game DNA35@27Rams at Broncos, Game DNA26@30Eagles at Bears, Game DNA7@27