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Raiders DeskBy the Numbers

Raiders defense has allowed positive EPA in five straight games and ranks 31st

Las Vegas has a 4-5 record, a minus-30 point differential and a defense that has slid since Week 4. Seattle visits Sunday.

By the NumbersDefense-0.35Offense EPA/play · Week 9
By Raiders Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 11, 11:20 AM ET2 min read

31st: the defense is bleeding on every snap

The Raiders rank 31st in defensive EPA allowed, at 0.092 per play. EPA, or expected points added, is the average change in a team's expected scoring on each snap. A positive number on defense means the opponent is gaining ground. Las Vegas has allowed 268 points against 238 scored, a differential of minus-30.

The slide has been steady. The defense allowed minus-0.236 and minus-0.261 in Weeks 1 and 2, then 0.423 in Week 5. Every game from Week 5 through Week 9 has finished above zero (0.423, 0.171, 0.174, 0.25, 0.194). The pass defense ranks 30th and the run defense 26th, and opponents are succeeding on 48% of their plays. There is no soft side of the defense for Seattle to avoid.

65%: the early-down pass rate has nearly doubled its Week 1 mark in spirit, and the results don't follow

In Week 1 the Raiders threw on 45% of early downs. By Week 9 it was 65%, with a peak of 71% in Week 7. The offense produced minus-0.163 EPA per play that day and a 35% success rate.

The one outlier is Week 8. Las Vegas dropped to 43% early-down passing and posted 0.212 EPA per play with a 50% success rate, its best game of the year. Week 9 swung back to 65% and the offense fell to minus-0.353. The season-long picture is a 17th-ranked offense (minus-0.015 per play) that is 11th in the pass game and 28th on the ground.

0.61: Brock Bowers is the offense, and the rest is thin

Bowers has 70 targets for 658 yards, 0.53 EPA per play and a 61% success rate. Over the last three weeks that rose to 0.61 and 70%, with a 26% target share. No other receiver is close to that.

Tre Tucker was at 0.21 EPA per play for the season, but over the last three weeks he sits at minus-0.37 on 21 targets. Kirk Cousins is at 0.1 EPA per play for the year and minus-0.05 over the last three. The backs are not covering for the passing game. Ashton Jeanty is at minus-0.29 EPA per rush with a 33% success rate, and Mike Washington Jr. is at minus-0.16 and 28%.

60%: the line and the back seven are being reshuffled

Trey Zuhn played 6% of the snaps at guard in Week 6 and 60% in Week 9. Caleb Rogers went from 100% to 40% over the same stretch. That shift comes while the run game ranks 28th.

On defense, Jermod McCoy went from 0% to 36% of the snaps at cornerback. Taron Johnson fell from 91% to 59%. Tommy Eichenberg rose from 9% to 41% at linebacker. With the pass defense ranked 30th, the coverage lineup is still being sorted out.

The Raiders are 1-3 at home and 3-2 on the road. They sit third in the division at 4-5, behind Denver at 7-2 and Kansas City at 6-2. The Seattle Seahawks arrive for a 4:05 PM ET kickoff on CBS on Sunday, Nov. 15, and Las Vegas will be trying to improve on that home record.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.