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Bills DeskBy the Numbers

Josh Allen's passing efficiency has cooled while his legs still pay off

Allen's per-play passing value fell from 0.25 for the season to 0.04 over three weeks, and the Bills offense has carried less of the load.

Josh AllenBy the Numbers-0.04Offense EPA/play · Week 9QBJosh Allen
By Bills Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 11, 10:00 AM ET2 min read

0.04: Allen's passing value over three weeks, against 0.25 for the season

Josh Allen has dropped back and thrown for 0.04 expected points added per play over the last three weeks, on 74 plays. His season mark across 277 plays is 0.25. EPA is the points a play adds or costs against what the offense could expect from that down and distance, so the gap of 0.21 per play is real.

The usual markers held up better. His success rate is 50 percent over the three weeks, against 48 for the season, and his completion rate over expectation is 1.1 against 4. He is moving the chains at the same rate. The big gains that lifted the season number have been scarcer.

0.17: what Allen's own carries are worth, against 0.02 for James Cook III

Allen has 32 rushing plays this season for 85 yards, 0.17 EPA per play and a 66 percent success rate. Cook has 169 plays for 814 yards, 0.02 per play and a 46 percent success rate.

Over the last three weeks Allen's nine carries went for 28 yards at 0.14 per play and 56 percent success. Cook's 52 carries produced 187 yards at minus 0.04 per play and 37 percent success. Buffalo ranks seventh in rush offense, and on a per-play basis the quarterback is doing more of the work than the back.

40%: the offense's success rate in Week 9, down from 55 percent in Week 5

The Bills still rank fourth in offensive EPA per play at 0.14, with a 48 percent success rate. The recent weeks run softer. The offense posted 0.291 in Week 5, 0.027 in Week 8 and minus 0.045 in Week 9, when only 40 percent of its plays were successful.

The early-down pass rate was 44 percent in Week 9 and 45 percent in Week 8, against 59 percent in Week 1. Austin Corbett at guard and Tylan Grable at tackle each played 100 percent of the snaps in Week 9, after 1 percent in Week 6.

The defense covered for it. Opponents produced minus 0.497 EPA per play in Week 8 and minus 0.752 in Week 9, though the season figure is minus 0.01, 13th in the league. Bradley Chubb's snap share rose from 32 percent in Week 6 to 77 percent in Week 9.

1.05 and 1.07: Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid are carrying the target value

Shakir averages 1.05 EPA per play on 10 targets over three weeks, with a 90 percent success rate and 117 yards. Kincaid is at 1.07 on nine targets, with 78 percent success and 114 yards. Season-long, both sit near 0.5.

DJ Moore leads the group with a 19 percent target share over the three weeks, but his 12 targets return minus 0.15 per play and 107 yards. Keon Coleman has nine targets at minus 0.83 per play, 22 percent success and 26 yards. The ball is going to some receivers more often than the results justify.

Buffalo is 7-1, holds the top seed in the conference and is 4-0 on the road. Next up is the New York Jets, 2-7, on Sunday, Nov. 15 at 1:00 PM ET on CBS. Watch whether Allen's passing EPA climbs back toward 0.25 and whether the targets move toward Shakir and Kincaid.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.