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Chargers DeskBy the Numbers

Chargers rank 32nd in offense, pass and rush, with an 0-8 record to match

Los Angeles is last in EPA per play on offense, and Week 9 showed the defense slipping too before a trip to Baltimore.

MilestoneBy the Numbers-0.18Offense EPA/play · Week 9
By Chargers Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 11, 11:10 AM ET2 min read

-0.245: the offense is last in EPA per play

The Chargers offense has produced -0.245 expected points added per play, 32nd in the league. EPA measures how much each snap moves the team's chance of scoring, so a negative number means the average play leaves Los Angeles worse off than it started. The success rate sits at 35 percent, and the pass offense and rush offense both rank 32nd as well.

Justin Herbert has taken 288 plays at -0.25 EPA per play and a 35 percent success rate, with 1,393 yards and a completion rate 4.9 points below expectation. Over the last three weeks it is -0.29 on 69 plays. Herbert's number is the offense's number, and it has not moved.

-98: the point differential has no home or road split

Los Angeles has scored 121 points and allowed 219, a gap of 98. The record is 0-8 with a streak of L8, and the Bolts are 0-4 at home and 0-4 on the road. Denver is 7-2 and Kansas City is 6-2 in the division, which leaves the Chargers in fourth place.

The defense is not the problem by itself. It allows 0.003 EPA per play, 17th in the league, and a 44 percent success rate against. That is a middle-of-the-pack unit sitting behind the worst offense in football.

0.28: the defense gave up its worst week of the season in Week 9

In Week 9 the defense allowed 0.28 EPA per play, the highest figure on the weekly log. A week earlier it allowed -0.07, so the swing was 0.35. The Week 5 mark of -0.271 shows what the unit can do when it holds.

The offense moved the other way. Its Week 9 EPA per play was -0.179 after -0.452 in Week 8, an improvement of 0.273. Still negative, but the first time since Week 4 it has cleared -0.2.

Personnel changed along with the numbers. Cam Hart's snap share dropped from 98 percent in Week 6 to 37 percent in Week 9. Alex Harkey fell from 100 percent to 35 percent, and Cole Strange from 100 percent to 58 percent.

0.39: Ladd McConkey is the one steady target

McConkey has 24 targets at 0.39 EPA per play and a 54 percent success rate, with 286 yards. Tre' Harris has 35 targets at 0.17 and a 34 percent success rate. Oronde Gadsden has 30 targets at -0.31.

McConkey's snap share went from 12 percent in Week 6 to 90 percent in Week 8, a rise of 78 points. His target share is still only 10 percent, the lowest of the four main receivers. Quentin Johnston has 30 targets at 0.3 EPA per play and a 13 percent share.

Omarion Hampton, meanwhile, has 102 rushes for 369 yards at -0.29 EPA per play and a 33 percent success rate.

What to watch

The Chargers play at the Baltimore Ravens on Monday, Nov. 16, at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN in Week 10. Watch whether McConkey's 90 percent snap share holds and whether his target share rises above 10 percent.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.