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Cowboys DeskBy the Numbers

Cowboys defense ranks 30th in EPA allowed, but Week 9 changed who is on the field

Dallas has the seventh-ranked offense and the 30th-ranked defense, and the Week 9 snap counts show the defense is changing.

DefenseBy the Numbers+0.14Offense EPA/play · Week 9
By Cowboys Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 11, 11:01 AM ET2 min read

30th: the defense is near the bottom despite its best game

Dallas has allowed 0.091 expected points per play through nine weeks, 30th in the league. EPA, short for expected points added, tallies what each snap does to a drive's scoring chances, so a lower number is better for a defense. The Cowboys rank 27th against the run and 28th against the pass, and opponents have been successful on 46% of plays.

Week 9 was the exception at minus 0.208, the best mark of the season. Week 1 was the worst at 0.369. The lineup behind that Week 9 number looks different from a month ago.

Dee Winters went from 21% of snaps in Week 6 to 91% in Week 9. Cobie Durant went from 36% in Week 7 to 100%. Jaishawn Barham dropped from 80% to 5%, Markquese Bell from 79% to 9%, and Alijah Clark from 61% to 0%.

0.25: Dak Prescott is adding value without completing more than expected

Over the last three weeks Dak Prescott has an EPA of 0.25 per play on 103 plays and 709 yards. His season mark is 0.16 on 371 plays. Success rate is nearly flat at 47% against 48% for the season.

The rise came while his completion percentage over expected, which compares his completions to what the throws called for, fell to minus 1.7 from 0.1 on the season. He is getting more from each play while completing slightly fewer passes than the model expected.

77%: the offense has been best when it throws less on early downs

In Weeks 5 and 6 the early-down pass rate was 75% and 77%, and the offense produced minus 0.047 and minus 0.133 EPA per play. In Week 7 the rate fell to 41% and the offense produced 0.318. In Week 9 it was 42% and 0.14.

Week 8 sat between the two at 51%, with minus 0.052 and a 39% success rate. The run game itself is not carrying the load. Javonte Williams has 154 rushing plays for 629 yards at 0.01 EPA per play, and 69 plays for 312 yards at minus 0.02 over the last three weeks. The rush offense ranks ninth, the pass offense ninth.

1.04: Ryan Flournoy is the most efficient target lately

Ryan Flournoy has 11 targets over the last three weeks for 161 yards, a 1.04 EPA per play and an 82% success rate. His season line is 0.38 on 48 plays. CeeDee Lamb has taken 44% of the targets in that span against 33% for the season, at 0.27 EPA and a 41% success rate.

George Pickens has 10 targets at 0.48 EPA for 105 yards over the three weeks, an 11% share against 19% on the season.

What to watch

Dallas hosts the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday, Nov. 15, at 4:25 PM ET on Fox. The Cowboys are 1-3 at home and 3-2 on the road. The first read is whether Winters and Durant keep their Week 9 snap counts against an offense that will test a defense ranked 30th.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.